Written by Graeme on Friday, January 27th, 2023
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It was a winning night last night thanks to the Arizona Coyotes, and their solid 2.40 underdog price.
I felt particularly happy at that one because there’s been a few times this season where I’ve written that one team is overperforming and another is underperforming and it could all come to a head. It’s one thing to write that but it takes a lot to actually advise it.
It was a big thumping by the Coyotes and will be interesting to see if they can build on that.
Jets were the Jets. Comes with the territory. When betting the Jets, we know that sometimes they just don’t show up. Honestly Comrie being in net was probably a detriment; it allowed that Jets complacency to step in and they barely threatened him. Such a frustrating team but I don’t even blink when Winnipeg have one of those nights.
We’ve got a busy Friday with eight games on the board. Lovely. Let’s get to it:
Islanders vs Wings:
Wings on a B2B after the Habs game. Islanders terrible. Many thought the Sens game would be where they got back on the winning track. They are heavy favourites tonight.
The metrics lean towards it, but not enough. It’s no secret that the Islanders should be scoring more goals. Buuuut they should also be conceding more than they are, and the Wings offense isn’t too shabby.
Gut says that the Islanders get the job done tonight in regulation. Hockeyviz have them at 59% to win wow. Moneypuck have them at 63.4%. This is a tricky one as I mean THIS should be the spot for the Islanders tonight, so I’m trying to justify it.
Thing is their offensive output against the Leafs, Sabres & Hurricanes was fine but then it was pretty piss poor against the Sens. Like a real dismal effort and only an HDCF of 7.
Bah. This is one where I feel like I’d be kicking myself tomorrow if I don’t back it. The metrics lean more towards an OT win for the Islanders and the odds aren’t there. The Wings actually have a good xGA/60 last 10, although conceding.
Nah. Can’t do it. Islanders had their chance against the Sens, who have worse defensive metrics than the Red Wings. I really do think it will happen and want to trust my gut, and I’ll bet it myself. But the math does not add up to it being an +EV play.
Panthers vs Kings:
Panthers coming off that fun game against the Penguins, where both teams played with Babcock sized nets. Kings got that tight win over the Flyers but really aren’t blowing anyone away at the moment.
I generally like the metrics for the over here. SCGF for the Kings is lower than I’d hope and SCGA is below 3 for both teams though.
I’ve went back and looked at similar metrics and the Panthers you don’t really have to worry about for the goals, but the Kings are a slight concern albeit not with a lot of data.
I’m going to go with Panthers win the race to 3 goals Copley if is not in net and Bobrvosky is in net. Not that Bobrovsky is a brick wall or anything but I prefer him over the alternatives.
Ontario: 1.95 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Canada: 1.95 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
USA: -120 Odds at Bovada
Everyone Else: 1.95 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2023/01/27 12:50:48 PM EST but are subject to change.)
Leafs vs Senators:
With Matthews out, Leafs are probably unbettable for the next few weeks. Just look at their metrics from a couple of weeks ago when he missed some games. Such a key player.
Hurricanes vs Sharks:
Yeh I think it’s fine to take the Canes here. Goals conceded is pretty much on point and won’t surprise me if Sharks score a couple. But think Carolina can overcome that. Sharks goaltending been an issue for them.
Raanta is a tricky one I mean he came in and played well against the Stars but boy did he get lit up against the Jackets and Devils. Then prior to that two shutouts in a row but Philly put 5 past him? Man.
Slavin might not be back tonight either. Aaaagh. Yes I think there is just enough to take em here.
Hurricanes -1.5 if Raanta in net
Ontario: 1.85 Odds at 888 Sports.
Canada: 1.85 Odds at 888 Sports.
USA: -115 Odds at BetOnline.
Everyone Else: 1.85 Odds at 888 Sports.
(Odds correct as of 2023/01/27 12:50:48 PM EST but are subject to change.)
Rangers vs Knights:
Slight edge to Rangers and bookies have given them that. No bet.
Stars vs Devils:
Tough one honestly. Nothing for it.
Kraken vs Flames:
Nothing here. I do like Seattles odds and I think they will take this one. But Calgary are such a weird team. They can bounce back from last nights horrific performance to travel here and have a banger. Don’t feel confident enough in the Kraken although I’ll be surprised if they don’t get the job done.
Canucks vs Blue Jackets:
Avoiding at all costs. By the metrics Canucks should win especially if they can get some actual goaltending going but yeah I am NOT prepared to take Vancouver in regulation against anyone. Maybe if instead of all bran for breakfast I smoked some crack instead.
It’s extremely risky betting on anything the day before the All Star break. That in mind, I still find the Detroit at the reverse puckline of +1.5 looking good, and I wouldn’t be surprised if they win moneyline. The Islanders are horrid right now on offense and Detroit seems to consistently score at least 3.
Other games I’m looking at either the O/U or tie in regulation. Tie odds are so high than only one in four ties makes it worth the risk, and I see maybe four games that have stats and situation that fit the description.
Allstar break is next week bro
Oops, I meant “last few games before the All Star break”.
For what it’s worth I put the Islanders at 56.5 percent or about -130. Know that doesn’t mean anything, just I been tryna make lines before looking at openers so figured I’d share.
And I wouldn’t be surprised if they won but it was just high enough a line it didn’t seem worth the risk for me personally as I was the one who took a shot on them vs the Senators. I liked the plus money I was getting.
Seattle -115
The Seattle line is still goofy to me. Said it yesterday I would of liked the Flames to win that Blackhawks game, not get beat 5-1 at home. Also Berniers got injured in the Vancouver game and they already confirmed him out for their two games leading into the All Star Break. This didn’t bother me much because Seattle really doesn’t rely on any one player. Wouldn’t be shocked with a Flames bounce back performance win off the loss yesterday but getting Seattle -115 is a must play for me at that price.
Seattle -115
Toronto John Tavares to score +145
Like how much he’s been shooting the puck. No Matthews maybe that makes the Captain extra goal happy tonight. Obvious other choices would be Nylander and Marner.
LA Kings Adrian Kempe to score +185
Seeing the Kings might be getting to go against Lyon tonight. I did have four more Kings all with potential to score as well so hopefully I chose the right guy. Fiala being the obvious one at +170, would have been my next choice.
Seattle -115
Toronto Tavares to score +145
LA Kings Kempe to score +185
For Saturday
Winnipeg -1.5 at +115 vs Philly.
Winnipeg poor game vs Sabres at home in their most recent. Not just the loss but the way they played looked lethargic. Still nearly 71 win percent at home. Philly struggling on the road. Should be a goaltending mismatch no matter who’s in net. When the Flyers lose it’s usually by margin so I’ll take a shot on the Jets at home -1.5 at plus money.
Thought really hard about Boston in regulation at +105. Don’t know about Floridas goaltender situation. Could possibly be Bobrovsky. If it is I would still roll with Boston. If it’s anyone else for Florida it becomes a huge advantage for Boston. Boston does have another road game less than 24 hours later vs Carolina on Sunday though. So we could see Swayman here. I don’t think Boston would completely look ahead coming off the Tampa Bay loss, but it’s not the best of spots for them schedule wise. If it is Swayman vs Bobrovsky I believe the number might be too high. In the sense that it opened Boston -150, I personally priced them -155, and it’s quickly already hit -165. I anticipate the number will only climb higher on Boston so if Boston rolls Ullmark, or Florida starts anyone besides Bobrovsky I may regret not firing on the plus money on Boston in regulation.
Buffalo +155 feels like a trap at first glance. I made Minnesota -130, and they’re currently sitting at -180. I think these teams are pretty close especially in their recent game results. Wild solid home record might be factoring in, even with Buffalo being better on the road than at home. Buffalo finishes up the four game road trip and doesn’t play again until February first. Buffalo so far 3-0 so maybe they’re also pricing how difficult it would be for teams to sweep their road trips. Similar to how difficult it is for east coast teams to sweep the west coast trip, despite facing the ducks and sharks.
Montreal +160 vs Ottawa feels high. Ottawa has already confirmed they are going back to Forsberg with Talbot out. Dominate Toronto lose to Montreal right?
I’ll take a half unit on Montreal and keep my expectations low.
Head scratching line of tomorrow for me goes to Vegas as slight underdogs to the Islanders. I’ve been burned recently with lines like this. Devils at Nashville, Islanders at Ottawa, and just now Seattle vs Calgary. So I’ll lay-off this one and laugh if Vegas takes it easily.
So far Winnipeg -1.5 vs Philly at +115
Montreal +160 at Ottawa half unit