Written by Graeme on Sunday, January 28th, 2024
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Crushed it yesterday going 3-0, to follow up my 2-0 day on Thursday. Love it!
Had the Oilers in regulation and they delivered with ease. A commanding performance, and I have to say if I was a betting man, I’d be putting my money on that team to win the cup. This is their year. They are just such a better team and more well organized than previous years.
Had Canes -1.5 and they got the 3-1 win over the Coyotes to cover that.
And finally had good ol Tampa to win in regulation. I called that one pretty good with the concerns over the Devils offensive metrics, and thankfully the Lightning were able to overcome that.
Two games today:
Blues vs Kings:
Blues are pretty crazy underdogs here.They’re coming in on a 4 game winning streak. LA are just broken. Makes for an interesting one.
Let’s see what story the metrics tell. Kings much better Corsi and Fenwick overall by like 10%. Shooting more. Obviously worse GF%. Aaaand hte xG stats unfortunately make this not a play I can advise. Kings should definitely not be such dogs, and there’s value on the Blues for sure.
Basically by most metrics, Blues is a fine bet to make. The xG stats are just too concerning for me.
Kraken vs Blue Jackets:
Nothing for this one. The metrics do go towards the Kraken I’ll say – but not in a huge fashion and they have a worse xGA.
No bets today.
Looking ahead to after the break, I’m curious to see what the Vegas odds will be vs the Oilers. When looking ahead to where their streak could potentially end, I didn’t think they would have any letdowns vs their opponents at home and they didn’t. But this is a team going so strong the coaches probably would have preferred not to have this break in the schedule and let things keep rolling. I could also see the Oilers aware of this as well. I would even be willing to take a shot on the Ducks if the Oilers come out and beat Vegas as the price will probably be insane.
The last thing I’d want as a coach on a 16 game win streak is to have my team go away and not play another game until Feb 6th. And have to come back vs a red hot goalie. Get thru that test, and then have to get them motivated and take the Ducks seriously in the first game of a back to back.
St. Louis
Robert Thomas to score +220
Jordan Kyrou to score +200
Couldn’t pick between him and Thomas so begrudgingly taking both. Another way to take this if you wanted to take Kyrou to score is in a same game parlay with the St. Louis Blues money line.
St.Louis to win and Kyrou to score is available at about +375. I think I like that better.
Looking at Kyrou’s splits, he has 11 goals in 23 Home Games. As opposed to just 2 goals in his 24 games on the road. Also 12 of his 13 goals have come in St. Louis Blues wins, having scored just once in the Blues 22 regulation and OT losses.
Thomas is a little more even in his goal scoring splits.
Torey Krug to score +850
Probably a reach.
Kings
Kempe to score +150
Grundstrom to score +550
Probably a super reach on Grundstrom but i like the price.
I might have some goal scorer props on the later game that I’ll be taking. But still debating if it’s worth it with Daccord likely to be in net. I liked some of the Blue Jacket player prices. I was hoping for Grubauer but doesn’t look like it’s gonna happen.
Sillinger, Jenner, And low expectation plays on Provorov and Werenski were who I had highlighted. Sillinger at +440 might have to be a play for me regardless.
5 goal scorer props in total on the first game. And I definitely didn’t wanna take that many, but oh well. Probably could have left of Grundstrom and Krug at the very least as the others aren’t sure things either.
Pretty sure Seattle win their two next games before the break…if they want playoff they need to win these type of games against weaker opponents…7-4 to Seattle two weeks ago ..jackets b2b too.
Seattle to score
Mccann +185
Bjorkstrand +195
Oleksiak +1000
Finding Kraken goal scorers is a challenge. So I want to use the lack of games to try and see if I can identify some potential winners here. I would not be very confident in these plays as there’s potential for a lot of variance.
Seattle rolls their lines and guys around and splits minutes evenly. Also guys can disappear from games going from 4 or 5 shots on one night to 0 and 1 shot for the next three games. I believe CBJ will go with Tarasov and his mid and high danger save percentages are brutal. So my focus is on two of those players, who also occupy power play minutes and have overall high shooting percentages.
But the reality is it can be anyone. I will probably regret not taking Dunn instead of Oleksiak, when looking for a defender. Dunn may have some regression due because of the rate he is scoring at. But that may not show vs a goalie like Tarasov. Ultimately I liked the potential higher payout of +1000 on Oleksiak vs Dunn +490.
I highlighted some options on the Blue Jackets earlier but I feel they may be too ambitious.
The only one I’m taking is Jenner at +280 and like Grundstrom and Krug from earlier today, he and Oleksiak should probably have been left off. Nevertheless I’ll roll the dice on both of them. No real same game parlay I’m seeing here like Kyrou and Blues which hit earlier though.