Written by Graeme on Thursday, January 30th, 2025
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The Leafs botched the spot last night as the Wild continue their excellent road record with a 3-1 win.
Panthers move top of the Atlantic with the 3-0 win over the Kings.
A solid win for the Devils too. Pens and Utah had a battle with the Pens getting the win.
It’s Thursday. The month is wrapping up – let’s get to it – no bets today, unfortunately. Just not a fan of any of the match-ups. Couple of slight leans but that’s it.
Hurricanes vs Blackhawks
Canes playing well lately but not -2.5 well which is what you’d have to back them at.
Lightning vs Kings
Tampa struggling hard at the moment yet favourites here. To be fair the Kings aren’t playing well either. Neither team backable.
Canadiens vs Wild
Metrics lean Habs way – although it’s not overwhelming. The odds aren’t good for a Habs W either. Their xGA/60 is concerning too with the Wild scoring well last few. No bet.
Senators vs Capitals
Looks to be a tight one and bookies feel the same way, with Sens slight favourites. The goalie data is mental for this with GA/60 of 1.78 for Sens and 1.08 for Caps over last 10. Those are NUTS.
Capitals offense is scoring more and creating more although a worse xGA.
I like how they bounced back after the Canucks loss and I lean the Capitals here but not enough to go on.
Bruins vs Jets
Would have to be Jets in regulation. They are the stronger team by the data. Not confident enough in them looking at this.
Flyers vs Islanders
Just recently played. Pass.
Flames vs Ducks
Flames come stumbling in, Ducks on a roll. At 2.60 I’d say screw it back it hope for the best on the Ducks to win. Data unfortunately goes all the way towards the Flames.
Oiler vs Red Wings
This one by the data is actually quite close. Like Oilers should be favourites but not the way they are. Just hard to come here and back the Wings against them.
Knights vs Jackets
Not backing the Knights or anything involving them.
Kraken vs Sharks
Not interested in backing Kraken in regulation with the way both teams are coming in.
Parlay:
To WIN moneyline: Carolina
Full game UNDER 7.0: LA/Tampa
Lean: Detroit’s Raymond OVER 2.5 shots
Lean: Montreal moneyline
Lean: Carolina wins on the puckline
Lots of problems today. LA players may be out of phase due to the LA fire catastrophes. Both LA and Tampa offense and defensive numbers are erratic recently. But UNDER seems a trend.
Carolina just wiped out the Rangers 4-0 in New York, after getting Hall and Rantanen. Those additions would perhaps radically alter their whole game, and offense may be a monster when it fully clicks in. I’d expect tonight or sometime soon we see big multi-goal wins for Carolina. Chicago is full of defensive weakness, so it could start today.
Detroit is doing better, so not sure what Edmonton will think of them. If Edmonton’s defense is good, Raymond may have difficulty getting his shots on net. Calgary is not a guaranteed win against anyone, plus they’re without at least two important players. Their offense is not yet clicking, though they have the talent. Columbus just had 4 days off, so that could be a major boost for them tonight. The Jets win a few then their offense collapses for a game, so not willing to bet on them on the road against rollercoaster Boston. Capitals put on a good show, but on the road when Ottawa has had 3 days off? Nope.
Surprised no one is talking about the under on sens / caps. Cant remember the last time one of those teams had a game go over the total.