Written by Graeme on Friday, January 31st, 2025
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Yesterday was one of those days where I had no tips or bets, but was really curious to see the results and how the day played out to see if there was any missed opportunities etc.
Canes barely covered so an easy pass there. Habs xGA/60 was that factor as the Wild rocked them as their offenes continues to play well. Caps/Sens was just hilarious after the GA/60 stats with it being a 9 goal thriller. Games like that I am happy to avoid as goalie variance is the worst variance.
Wondering if I could have backed the Jets but I don’t think so. Ducks got blasted by the Flames so glad I didn’t go with that underdog play – Data all led to Calgary as I mentioned. Possibly a missed opportunity with the Wings – I did say they had value. Was just hard to come out and back them.
And that’s really about it. So maybe I was a bit gun shy and should have backed the Wings (or Wings +1.5) but that’s the only regret.
Truthfully I also had a killer migraine yesterday which as you can see, impacted the length of my write-ups. I think betting the Wings on the road in Edmonton would have just compounded that!
Feeling much better today thankfully. Let’s look at the four games taking place today, as we finally say goodye to January. I’ve seen a lot of those “Welcome to Day 74 of January” memes etc going around and for the first time – I can relate to that.
Let’s get into it:
Sabres vs Preds
Buffalo very inconsistent at the moment. Preds on a two game losing run.
I don’t back anything involving the Preds but the over definitely jumps out at me here. Both teams high GF/60 and high GA/60. Great xGF/60.
The biggest concerns are low SCGF/60 plus the Preds offense may be on a cold streak.
Thankfully, the over is set at 6.5 which is a bit too hefty for me. I am very intrigued by it though as I rarely see an opportunity for an over.
Looking at team data the Preds have played, I do think their offense can get back on track here.
yes I am going to go with it even though Luukkonen has been playing fairly solid. We’ll see if the Preds burn me a couple of weeks after I swore off them!
Over 6.5 goals incl OT/SO
Ontario: 2.00 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Canada: 2.04 Odds at BetOnline.
USA: +104 Odds at BetOnline.
Everyone Else: 2.00 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2025/01/31 8:33:22 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Stars vs Canucks
Not seeing quite enough to back Stars in regulation by the metrics.
Utah vs Jackets
I’m scratching my head as Utah certainly should not be this big a favourite. Seems crazy odds. On the other hand, I don’t feel confident enough in the Jackets to back. But those odds seem a bit wacky. I mean I know the Jackets are on a B2B and Tarasov probably in net, but still seems a bit overloaded.
Avalanche vs Blues
Avs just aren’t backworthy at the moment even against the Blues.
