Written by Graeme on Friday, January 5th, 2018
Follow @BetNHL
Hi all,
Well that’s me back from Scotland now. For those unaware I was over there for the past 10 days. Was able to do tips a couple of the days but the last few days I was super busy so had to tune out of the NHL really.
Spent most of the morning just getting caught up and watching lots of highlights etc. Been quite a lot of surprising results lately and man – what a disaster the Penguins are. The Hurricanes are an interesting team because if you run any advanced metrics they’re usually at the top yet that never translates into the way they play. It’s been like that there for at least 3 seasons now – very weird.
The trip to Scotland was great. For those unaware I’m actually Scottish – moved to Canada when I was 16, but all my family(mum, dad, sister etc) all live over there so I go back and visit every few years. It’s fun going with my wife & kids who are all from Canada as it means we get to do all the tourist stuff like the castles etc.
And if you’re ever in Cumbernauld over there be sure to check out Bombay Dreams – the best Indian restaurant I’ve ever been to. Naan bread the size of a skateboard. Although in saying that do NOT go to an Indian restaurant 12 hours before you have to go on a flight. Not only did I have quite a few close encounters during that flight but the vindaloo sauce exiting out that way had me worried I’d set my seat on fire.
Anyway it’s very good to be back. There’s been talk in the comments lately about possibly setting up a Facebook page for people to discuss however we won’t be going that route again for numerous reasons. One is that despite what they host Facebook are very anti-gambling and can shut pages down on a whim. We had a page with thousands of followers on there for years and then one day they just shut it down for gambling despite having many similar ones on there.
I’ve been looking into things and talking to a few people and I think what people are really looking for is the ability to chat during games – possibly just talking about the games or doing live betting. So I’ll be looking at having a chat room set up during games where people can talk. More on that within the next few weeks.
Penguins vs Islanders Betting Tips:
Last time these two played it was a 7 goal thriller with the Penguins winning 4-3.
Islanders are the Islanders. Their offenes took a few nights off but they look to be back firing on all cylinders after last nights game against Philly. All but I believe 2 of their 2nd leg B2B games have hit at least 6.
Pens offense was shut out against the Canes and man they are a tough offense to back at the moment. However last time they were shut out they came back firing and with Islanders being the Islanders you gotta think they can get the goals in.
Over 6 Goals incl OT/SO
Canada: 1.90 Odds at BetOnline..
USA: -115 Odds at
Everyone Else: 1.90 Odds at BetOnline..
(Odds correct as of 2018/01/05 10:46:50 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Other Game Thoughts:
Sharks/Sens historically have some pretty feisty games. Both have such inconsistent performances at the moment that I can’t back anything(I’d probably back one if they were a big dog but it’s close odds). I’ll probably bet the Over 5.5 though.
Jets should clean the clocks of the Sabres BUT Buffalo usually match up well with Winnipeg. With the Sabres having only 4 regulation losses in their last 13 games I can’t back the Jets here especially at the odds. Actually at the price I’d probably go with Buffalo if it wasn’t for the Jets ability to bounce back.
I was very close to backing the Knights. The price is right considering their ability. However despite not a mind blowing record the Blackhawks are a very solid home team with the type of performances that could spell trouble for the Knights. That along with them riding the Glass wave at the moment is enough for me to stay away.
What the hell happened yesterday…
i dont know …. im a habs fan and when i bet against them they smack the hell out of me. VGK played good but the blues were hard to play to ..
Absolutely horrible night last night. No bets for me today boys.
Best of luck to everyone!
Back to normal.
Penguins PL, Senators and Blackhawks with 1u;
Dadonov, Hoffman and O’Reilly with 0.5u.
Penguins again? Come on man lol.
Ha,ha,ha!
Is for the last time.
And its Pens on the road v Isles at home! EVEN WORSE!
:))
One word comes to mind – BRAVE.
To WIN in Reg tonight: Winnipeg, Vegas.
No leans.
Yesterday, and many other days, seem to support my suspicion that NHL (and other league) teams, players and league, are operating in an organized fashion to profit off gambling on their own games, and possibly in partnership/influencing with the offshore gambling business who would be pressuring them to avoid all “likely” results, protecting and rewarding the books and the betters with “inside” information. They’re possibly throwing games to give themselves huge fast profits. Wouldn’t you, in their position? An NHL player stands to gain double or more their annual income, off sports betting on the NHL. Many days have weird results that seem to be collusion across the board, often form patterns, and yesterday was, if I’m right, one hell of a sloppy giveaway to add to the pile of supporting data. Maybe I’m wrong. No I’m not. Also consider the sports betting advice sites that suggest/rank betting books, vs those that are directly sponsored by betting sites/books. It’s very good that quality betting/capper sites rank the books and suggest a list of them, but to be directly sponsored by the betting books, can only bring swift and profuse corruption of the process.
I’d like to believe we were banged by the man, but in reality something like that would be impossible to hide. It’s sports, and sometimes teams just don’t come to play.
That too is true, that sometimes teams just don’t come to play, but I suggest to watch for patterns over the course of several seasons. Once there’s big money involved, the “hidden” aspect becomes a vast gray zone. Money is the only law going.
Teams lose motivation. Ottawa are clearly one of those.
No wonder Karlsson isn’t playing so well – people potentially forget he was injured for a while, comes back to a shocking team, people expect the world from him to turn a season around for an entire organisation.
It just doesn’t happen.
My kitchen sieve has less holes than the Ottawa defence right now.
Turris was a huge mistake by Sens as well….
“True dat”
I think you’re overthinking it mate, information like that would have come out eventually in a sport where there’s like 50+ people working in each organization.
It’s just the way NHL is, anybody can beat anybody on any given night. If Canada can lose to France in the World Championships, surely one NHL team can beat another NHL team.
Hell look at Brazil losing 7-1 to Germany in a World Cup semi-final! Shit happens
Yep.
Why a player like Perry which does 9 mil.per year need more money? I think you are wrong. I hope you are wrong.
You forget is hockey, is NHL and also th role of the goalie in this sport. A goalie on fire can seal the pipes.
I’ve said exactly this same thing re: NBA and NFL in regular season match ups ? TBL screwed my bets last night. Only had them and Wild in Regulation along with the 2 NBA games. Overall it is just bad luck or bad timing. It’s also why we gamble lol
Well yesterday was a nightmare. Nothing about yesterdays results really made much sense besides a few. What should have been a cash in day, turned into a pocket emptying day. No point crying over spilled milk, let’s just try and bend over the bookies tonight.
POTD (90%/80%) – Jets Reg/PL – The value here isn’t fantastic, but I struggle to see the Sabres managing much tonight. They’re on the end of a back to back and they’re 25-74 playing with no rest. That stat also doesn’t really reflect how bad the Sabres are this season either, having been even worse than years before. The Jets are the second best home team in the league, and have the 2nd best power play % at home in the league.The Jets have lost just 4 times at home all season, and I’m not about to bet the Sabres who got demolished last night are going to pull out an upset on no rest. The odds keep dropping on this, I got it at -130 / 7/10 ; now I’m seeing it at 4/7 / -157. I’m not sure I would play it at that low a number, but anything -140 or so is worth it. Alternatively I think this is a good spot to bet PL on Jets, and I don’t say that very often.
Sharks ML/Reg (85%/80%) – I don’t care if the Sharks are playing on no rest, the Sens have won 4 games of their last 20 and look lost and bored. I watched their game v the red wings, and the red wings could easily have buried them and won that 4-1/5-1. The Wings had multiple breakaways, and Karlsson didn’t even look like he was bothered. The Sharks beat the Sens 5-0 just last month, and to be frank just about any team in the NHL is better than the Sens right now, so I wouldn’t be surprised if the Sharks bring the smackdown again tonight. The Sharks managed to keep one of the best offensive teams in the NHL to two goals last night, and were unlucky to lose in OT. Simply, how can the 2nd best defensive team in the NHL be beaten by the 28th best offence in the league (yeah the 4th last in the league)? Last year the Sens made it to the playoffs despite being the only team in it with a negative goal difference. They had goal scoring troubles, but made up for it with a solid D. This season its a no offence no defence no goaltending problem for the Sens. I’m not sure when the Sens play Buffalo, but I actually think Buffalo would beat this Sens team- they are that bad. I’m not sure rest is enough at this point for the Sens, and I don’t think home ice will help them much either. I see a rampant Sharks win over a Sens side that just doesn’t even look close to solving their problems. This bet is more a fade of the Sens than a bet on how good the Sharks are, but I’m happy with that considering how bad the Sens are.
—- Guys, as there aren’t many NHL games today, I’m also looking at the NBA and see something I like to help us get some of last nights cash back—-
Celtics ( go anywhere up to -3.5) – I put a varying handicap according to what you guys feel comfortable taking. I’m personally happy enough taking what I get with -3.5, and don’t care for putting more risk by taking a larger margin. The Celtics have the best defence in the league whilst the Timberwolves rank near dead last in defensive efficiency. Celtics dispatched the Cavs extremely easily last night, and should be able to handle a Wolves side that hasn’t managed a win in 10 years in Boston.
Sorry about yesterdays little implosion, and lets hope tonight is back to winning ways!
***Added Play*** – VEGAS ML- I can’t help myself here, the odds are just too nice to pass up. Vegas are the real deal and haven’t lost back to back games in over a month; Subban has been better than Fluery in my opinion and has gone 10-2. Vegas are a hungry team, and I don’t see them lying down in this game simply because they played last night. This is the sort of team that says “fuck that we’re winning tonight”. Lets not forget Chicago is still Chicago, and have been bad this season- beating the rangers who are slumping isn’t about to change my opinion. The little 4 game home winning streak isn’t about to change my opinion either- wins against the Panthers, Coyotes and Sabres and a bad road Wild team aren’t impressive. Heck, the Hawks needed OT to beat both the Sabres and Panthers! Vegas is not in the same league as those teams, and has already handled the hawks quite well winning 4-2 earlier this season (a match the bookies priced Vegas at +210 to win in reg). Vegas are actually my favourite team in the NHL right now, because they play like they want me to have a good day and earn money, and like every game is a playoff game. Give me that Vegas underdog! Go Knights!
HOLY COW!!! 2 POTD’s!!
Yeah cause pretty much as sure as I can be that Jets win tonight. Value isn’t fantastic though, so Vegas adds some value. I think they’re too good for Hawks, and market still underestimates this team and overestimates the Hawks.
Any tips on AHL
I don’t do AHL sorry.
Don’t sleep on the Wolves, they got a great team with HUGE of potential. If KAT, Wiggins or Jimmy is feeling good out there tonight, this might be a tricky one.
I wasn’t 😉
BAM!! I didn’t take any hockey action tonight but I just hit it with the Celtics! Thanks OT!!!!
Enjoy man 🙂 Sorry again about last night 🙂
I didn’t take any action yesterday luckily! I was on the road to mammoth!
Hahaha lucky you, wish I’d somehow missed yesterday. Back on track today going 4-1… (including my added play of Jets TTO 3.5) would have been nice to have a sweep, but Sharks decided to give up a 3 goal lead and lose 7 seconds into OT ???
Well last night was a disaster, it seems all the teams have plotted aginst us. For tonight my picks are:
Islanders ML
Detroit ML
Jets PL
Sharks under
GLTA .
**** PLEASE READ*****
Until Graeme and Scott set up the live chat, I have found an alternative site where we can have a live chat room. It requires an email invite, so if you would like to join, just post your email in the comments, and I will send an invite. I will ideally set it up before the games start, so we can discuss whilst the games are in play, or if there are any updates prior to the games starting. Be sure to check your spam if it doesn’t appear.
Oliver.
Well, it was a crazy night as expected. My only tip of the day was don’t go crazy on the favorites, hopefully someone out there took the advice and just went to bed lol.
But im happy it was that type of night. In a league where there’s so much variance whenever you can call out the surprises you have to be pleased. Over the years there’s been times when i’ve expected them and then they just don’t happen, and the next night when you put more faith on the favorites, the dogs win. That stuff can drive you crazy and really mess up your mind for some time.
I mean im not going to sit here and say i had a great night, i hardly made anything and if it wasn’t for a couple of OT’s hitting, it could’ve been bad but i take what i can get.
I have to give a shout out to Carolina though. Whenever one team gets dominated by another like they have against the Pens, always losing but never for lack of trying, it’s always fun to see the floodgates open after 1 win. I almost had a tear in my eye when my boy Aho puts on a show as Crosby and Malkin are going through the motions. Take that Pens !
Anyway, i’ll be back tonight for some thoughts on the games. I think there’s some interesting ones for sure.
Hawks and jets parlay reg and ml
Also like the tip from oliver celtics parlay with raptors.
Gl everybody.
Another evening of falling asleep before placing my own recommendations
Hopefully nobody listened and scrolled straight past my comment yesterday… scratch that one from the records.
Bit late, but better late than never – I’m jumping on the Vegas bandwagon tonight. Mr Trigg makes an extremely valid point about Chicago – they just haven’t brought it this season like many expected them to.
Just hoping the knights bring me home the gold and leave nothing on the ice tonight.
VGK ML @ 1.8
@ Oliver – nice one on the NBA tip.
I hate to be the one to say up “knew it was going to happen”. The slumping Oilers take the win over the Ducks. Quick flashback to the first period where the shots were so lop siding one would have thought it was a midget team on the ice. Anyhow, as per usual as soon as I take the Oilers for a loss they pull through with the win…
Bad night behind and hopefully a profitable one ahead! Will anyone be looking to Team Canada to seal the gold? Looks as if the value is in PL =1.5 +130.
@Graeme @Scott, did either of you remove one of my comments? I see it listed as removed, and I’m not exactly sure why thats happened?
Yep sent you an e-mail about it when I deleted it but basically there’ll be no outside chat/forum/facebook page etc for a variety of reasons. We’ll have something set up this month most likely.
Fair enough. Think you may have my email wrong, haven’t received anything and I’ve checked my spam/junk. olliet76@gmail.com for future reference.
Fellow Scot here too from Ayrshire. NHL not really popular here so I use this page to try help develop my knowledge 🙂
Live in Edinburgh. There are a few of us who like ice hockey lol
***Added Play*** – Jets TTO 3.5 looks solid.
I love that one but my local don’t have it?
who are you using?
I have a local bookie
You got into a shop? Man shops always have awful odds
Barbershop to be exact
Pity your local didn’t have it ?
Believe it or not, I managed to stay away from Tampa, Knights and Ducks last night! Made some profit, but the Penguins really screwed me…
Plays for tonight:
Jets -1,5
Hawks vs Knights – o 6.0
Canada and Jets ML parlay…this seems like such a great play. Anyone else loving this?
I haven’t been following U20 and Jets odds are stupid high
Yeah I know, but its a parlay so I don’t mind the high odds for Jets. Canada should roll, talent gap and better between the pipes
I expect Canada to win too, they have been so great the whole Championship
Yes too loaded and better in net. Jets should roll too right?
They should, but you saw what happend last night, but yea, they should
I kinda like Canada in handicap to be honest. I just think, that after what I saw on this championship, Canada is somewhere else, Sweden barely beated Russia and almost lost with Slovakia, however they very much better that the USA last match so..
Yeah I watched the US closely against Russia, they didn’t impress me at all. I just think Canada is way deeper than Sweden and after blowing last year’s gold medal game late they will put Sweden away early
Hey guys, I’ve been flat out all day and haven’t had time to sit down. I’m very sorry about last night’s debacle. Like some of you I took it on the chin.
I can’t provide any back-up today but I have bet on the following:
LVGK ML
LVGK-Blackhawks over
Pens ML
Pens-Isles over
Sharks ML
Parlay
LVGK ML + Jets ML
GLTA SDB
Needing a win tonight. Canada and Jets ML parlay seems like a great bet doesn’t it?
Oh no…Pens….
Lol im also on pitt n the over gl
HAha! I know but they’re on a roll lol
unless they’re sitting in a bakery, they’re most certainly not ‘on a roll’
That’s my dry SOH
How are you guys ✌️
Winnipeg Jets -1.5 (-105)
Chicago Blackhawks -135
Detroit Red Wings -125
New York Islanders -125
These look like good tips for tonight !!
I’m also leaning on Chicago PL?
Hi guys, what do u think aboud Wings and Panthers? Are Wings kind of team which is capable to make long win streak? or Panthers will take it probably with Reimer in net. Reimer looks really solid right now.
Personally thats an avoid game for me. Detroit are doing well at home, Panthers have been good but not shown that on the road yet.
#36 Chicago Blackhawks – Vegas Golden Knights
FT(OT excl.) Away (1X2) @ 2.650 10/10 188bet
Ice Hockey / NHL / Kick off: 06 Jan 2018, 02:30
fair value 2.157
#37 Chicago Blackhawks – Vegas Golden Knights
Full Event (OT Incl) Away -1.50 (AH) @ 4.050 4/10 PINNACLE
Ice Hockey / NHL / Kick off: 06 Jan 2018, 02:35
fair value 3.772
12 W – 23 L
+35.54u
( flat stake 1u = +4.55 )
Agree on Vegas 😀
#36 WON +16.50u
#37 LOST -4u
13 W – 24 L
+48.04u
( flat stake 1u = +5.20 )
The only tip for tonight is Blackhawks win.
Good luck everyone!
Wrong!
Good last night again 🙂
Blackhawks win Reg
Over 5.5 Islanders vs Penguins
B. Wheeler to score
Good luck!
Think you’re the only person who did have a good night lol
Any other scorers u fancy, found myself flinging a few quid on scorers recently
DeBrincat or maybe P. Kessel
Huberdeau
Sens ML
Sharks are on a B2B, 3in4 & 4in6 stretch and had that emotional game with the Leafs last night. Sens on the other hand are well rested and have been pretty good when going back home after losing games this year, they should be looking for revenge for that 5-0 loss earlier in the year. I just think there should be a different level of determination for them in this one. If not, they might as well throw in the towel. Losing this one would be pretty embarassing to be honest. I know they’re not the most favorable team to bet right now, but these kind of games are usually pretty safe. If this happens to fail then so be it.
Blackhawks reg
It was fun while it lasted for Vegas. Personally i think this is where the struggles start. It’s typical for inconsistency to kick in after a long winning streak, especially from working standpoint, and for a team that thrives on hard work that’s going to lead to some surprising losses in the next 10 or so games, so keep an eye out. Remember the Blue Jackets 16 game winning streak from last year? Well after that i believe they were pretty much a .500 team so yeah. Now, they could be fine for tonight and come out determined to bounce back, but i also liked the way the Hawks played against the Rangers and their last few games they’ve been headed in the right direction. Looking for payback at home while Vegas is on a B2B+3in4+4in6 seems like a good spot. So even if Vegas plays a good game, i think the Hawks can give them a pretty good shot of their own. Hopefully the Glass isn’t empty tonight, i think he’s looked a bit shaky and Vegas might eat him alive, but i made up my mind earlier already and it’s tough to Back down now.
Im also going to throw a small bet on the Sabres. 5.00 odds is ridiculous for any team in the NHL and according to my system, teams in the Sabres shoes have beaten teams in the Jets shoes before. And the last time Jets won 3 straight before losing in SO, they were sleepwalking the first period afterwards so that’s something the Sabres could capitalize on. They seem to have Peg’s number, which admittedly could just lead to a spanking from the Jets if they decide to put an end to it, but in any case i think the odds are just too juicy for me not to throw some coin on it.
Pens-Isles i have no clue. I think there’s some signs for Isles explosion but i can’t back a team that can’t keep the puck out of their own net even if their life depended on it (seriously 21 pucks fished out of their net in the last 4 games??). I don’t like the Isles ML odds which would mean i’d have to take them in reg – which i don’t trust enough.
Panthers-Red Wings have gone to OT 4 straight meetings, Panthers are looking to bounce Back from ugly loss and the Red Wings are on a win streak (but they didn’t impress in their last game). I think there’s a chance they might find themselves playing extra hockey again, but im not too confident on it.
Not the best card tonight, more guessing going on than i’d like but we’ll see how it goes.
GL
Enjoy your insight, thanks for sharing.
No problem
Chad Johnson – 1-6-3 with a .884 save %. Jets a perfect 4-0 coming home after a road loss, and in those games scored 7,7,5,4 whilst only conceding 6. Bit funny you don’t like Sharks or Vegas cause of the B2B but are going to take the worst team in the NHL on one.
Chicago- No Anismov or Crawford. Beating a Rangers side who have been struggling and barely managed a win over the Sabres isn’t so impressive. Hawks are only 10-7 at home and their 4 game win streak at home was against bottom 10 teams. Two of those wins required OT. Vegas have Subban who is 10-2 in his 12 played, and Vegas have no lost a b2b game since Nov31-December 1st. Everyone keeps saying “now vegas slows down” and they’ve been wrong.
Sens – Only have 7 wins at home all season and 11 losses. All 7 wins have come against the worst 15 road teams in the NHL and/or some really subpar teams. Sens have a 28th ranked offence up against the second best defensive team in the NHL. Dell has a .934% whilst Andersen is .898%. I just don’t know how you can bet anything Sens right now.
Essentially, disagree on all counts lol. You’re not taking the second best team in the NHL record wise, but taking two of the worst 4 teams in the NHL….
– B2B+3in4+4in6 is not the same as B2B after 2 days off (that the Sabres had). I don’t really care about B2B itself that much, but the players themselves have said that B2B+3in4 is a lot tougher and you can see it sometimes leads to not playing 60 minutes under the right circumstances.
– I didn’t really pick the Sabres per se, it was a small play based on the odds alone, play that you don’t expect to win but sometimes do. I still think after the game that it was the right play, i mean the “correct” play was Jets reg as they won by 1 goal, and the odds were like 1.58? Not really worth it and going for Jets PL’s or whatever for me was pointless knowing there’s a good chance for a close game.
– If you always just pick the better team based on stats we’d all be millionaires. I used to statwatch a lot more but can’t even bother these days, rather focus on the game in front of me. I know what the teams, goalies etc. are capable of and choose to focus more on the mental side of things.
At the end of the day, i stand by my picks. Sens won and the Hawks had the lead in the 3rd – which was extremely disappointing to see them piss away. I actually thought it would probably be a comeback win as to me there was a lot of similarities between this game and the time when Devils beat the Ducks at home. Impressive for Vegas to find the mental fortitude to come back.
And about Vegas: what i said, i don’t really think of it as slowing down. It’s just a natural thing that happens a lot of the time. And Vegas have put themselves in a position where they’re going to be fine. Let me put it this way: do you think they’re going to keep the current pace and finish the season 56-21-4? That would be something else and about the same record as last years powerhouse Capitals team had. And they’re not that good. I think some inconsistencies will creep in, they can’t keep getting excited for every game especially as their position in the standings get stronger.
Which is the best play?
Jets 1st period
Jets -1,5
Wings ML
Hawks/Vegas over????????????????????
Help me out please
Jets PL in my opinion.
What an absolute disaster last night, hopefully the tables turns tonight. Going with the underdogs.
Pens ML
Panthers ML
Sharks ML (!)
Jets Reg
Vegas ML
GLTA as always!
– Yours truly
When are you guys going to post some OHL tips ?
With being away I wasn’t able to get my system updated as often as I could. Hopefully will get it all updated tonight while watching the games here and they can return tomorrow.
Pray for me people! Got this crazy treble on again!
Fuck the Sharks giving up 3 goal lead.
Nuts dude. Congrats