Written by Graeme on Thursday, January 5th, 2023
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0-1 last night as the Ducks managed to get an early lead and held onto it. Stars really only got in the game in the second half of it I felt.
Busy slate today with 10 games. Actually the next 4 days are all packed so that is fun. And I mean meant to be on vacation until the 9th!
Let’s get right into it:
Flyers vs Coyotes:
Flyers come in having strung a couple of road wins together. The metrics are still a bit concerning for me. The odds set I would say are pretty much right. Flyers should win but it’s not a certainty. They’re scoring a lot more than expected. I don’t think that will dry up against the Coyotes who have a really bad GA/60 and xGA/60.
Basically yeah I think Flyers can likely win this one, but think the incl OT/SO odds are on the money and don’t have the confidence to take them in regulation. Coyotes showing they can score too. Don’t feel super good about Hart on his first match back.
Hurricanes vs Predators:
Canes come in with their winning run ended away to the New York Rangers after that tough win over the Devils. Preds come in on a 3 game winning run.
By the metrics, there’s probably enough here to take the Canes in reg. One concern with that is only once this season have they lost a game in regulation, and bounced back with a regulation win. And that was against the Blackhawks.
It’s always a bit iffy when a streak ends. I’d like to think though that the Canes will be motivated after the way that happened against the Rangers.
Hurricanes in regulation if Raanta in net
Ontario: 1.80 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Canada: 1.80 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
USA: -145 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Everyone Else: 1.80 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2023/01/05 10:56:13 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Canadiens vs Rangers:
THe horrible Habs come in conceding like a billion goals in their last 5 games. Now they face a Rangers team who have battled with inconsistency, but are at least performing better in the last month.
So funny thing with this one – I spent all this time analyzing Rangers -1.5 and whether to take that or not. As I had misread the in regulation line. And I then made the decision to go with that. There was the slight gamble that it may rely on an empty net goal but at 2.20 odds it seemed fine.
Most things point to it except maybe the Rangers xGF/60 and even SCGF/60.
But then when getting the best odds I realized that I had misread the in regulation line.
So Rangers in Regulation it is. I feel a lot more comfortable with that.
Ontario: 1.80 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Canada: 1.80 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
USA: -145 Odds at BetOnline.
Everyone Else: 1.80 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2023/01/05 10:56:13 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Leafs vs Kraken:
The over in this one appears appealing on first glance, although I am iffy on that with the Kraken. The goal metrics point to the over. The one thing that is stopping me is the Leafs xGA/60 and SCGA/60. OF course it could be one where the Leafs go over by themselves.
The Leafs really should get the goals in here, so Leafs over 3.5 goals or winning the race to 3 looks appealing.
Leafs are a pretty solid 1st period team when it comes to goals in the 1st period. Kraken concede early too more often. Leafs looked complacent against the Blues too so should hopefully shake them up.
I’m going to go with Leafs win the Race to 3 Goals. Either pick is probably mathematically fine though.
Ontario: 1.74 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Canada: 1.75 Odds at Bovada
USA: -135 Odds at Bovada
Everyone Else: 1.74 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2023/01/05 10:56:13 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Devils vs Blues:
Devils back on track like the metrics suggested back on the 30th. Blues coming in after that big game against the Leafs. Devils goalscoring has a ways to go before it catches up with the xG so we should see more goals by them. Blues offense overperforming slightly.
Games like this can be tough, as you’re kind of betting it on “this is what should be happening” as opposed to what is actually happening by the basic stats. I do think Devils in regulation should be a play – but the Blues have that team spirit going just now, and also the Devils xGA/60 is not good at all. Against the free scoring Blues that’s a concern.
With Blackwood projected tonight, I’ll pass on this one. Plus just the whole B2B part of it all. There’ll be safer spots to take the Devils.
Blue Jackets vs Capitals:
Washington are one of those teams where sometimes I just groan at a particular game on the lineup and this is one of them. The bookies are making it worse by not pricing me out of a play on them.
Right let’s see. Corsi not a massive edge for Capitals. Fenwick slightly better. Caps offense overperforming but should still be putting up at least 3 against this team.
The metrics may as well have a big statement in impact font saying “THE CAPS WILL SCORE AT LEAST 3 GOALS HERE”. Feels like it would be irresponsible for me not to bet something involving that.
Can the Jackets keep up with them? Goaltending helping Washington a bit. But they aren’t really conceding a lot of chances. Looks like a 4-2 type of game. Laine being back didn’t really help off the bat.
Caps averaging 3 goals on the road but Jackets at 3.85 at home. If it comes to it, Caps pretty lethal against an empty net.
I’m gonna go with Caps over 3.5 at 1.83 here as opposed to the race to 3. Race to 3 can be a concern at times with road teams. I haven’t looked at the data to back that up or anything though.
Ontario: 1.83 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Canada: 1.83 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
USA: -125 Odds at Bovada
Everyone Else: 1.83 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2023/01/05 10:56:13 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Oilers vs Islanders:
No bet here. Oilers are a mess. I could see this game easily going either way, or both over/under. Nothing at all.
Canucks vs Avalanche:
I thiiiiink the Avs can pull this one off. Canucks defensive metrics aren’t great. But can you back this Avs team right now? And it’d have to be in regulation too. No thanks.
Knights vs Penguins:
Knights Corsi & Fenwick is substantially better here. Goaltending letting them down slightly, Pens should be scoring a bit more than they are but goaltending helping them too.
This is a bit of an iffy one and no bet – but I have a sneaky suspicion it goes over. Just looks like that type of game.
Kings vs Bruins:
Would have to be in regulation for the Bruins. I don’t hate it, but it’s not an overwhelming one. Looks like a 1 goal type of game.
To WIN moneyline: Washington
To WIN Puckline: Rangers
Full Game Over 5.0 (if you can find it): Leafs
Lean: Puckline win: Washington
Lean: Washington Over 3.5 goals
Sure Columbus sucks, but what matters more is that Washington has turned into the Ovechkin 99 Show, and it appears a new team mentality to be competitive more consistently is active. Washington needs points; they’re in a tough playoff race and this is a Division Game. Florida is likely to eventually challenge for a playoff position and Pittsburgh, Buffalo and the Islanders are right there with Washington in the current Wild Card race. Schedule situations are critical and this is a nice spot for Washington to nab 2 important points. Columbus has many players injured. No prisoners!
Looking at other games, situations with Colorado, Edmonton (inconsistency), Vegas (injuries), Carolina (streak just snapped), put me off.
Nice man…u killed it today…save some of those red hot picks for tomorrow lol
Rangers team total over 3.5 at -130
Was going to go with the Rangers -1.5. But I’m seeing Halak is confirmed. Not completely against it but being at work can’t really look into the numbers either. I’m going to go with Rangers team total over 3.5 at -130. Might be a perfect storm for the Rangers offense here. They’ve scored 5 power play goals over the last two games. Montreal has had a brutal penalty kill stretch. 10 of 11 games at least one power play goal against. 6 games more than one and 18 power play goals against in the last 11 games. Notes on Montreal, they may get a home boost here. They’ve had 7 straight road games and it was really starting to show at the end in the last few games. They’ve been on the road since December 19th. Interested to see how they perform at home.
Rangers over 3.5 goals
Had no time to handicap anything else which is unfortunate. Good luck to everybody.
Yeah that’s a pity you weren’t able to today as it looks like a pretty decent day. Quite a few possibilities out there.
Yeah I actually contemplated taking the day off from work lol..didn’t wanna burn one of my callouts on day five of the new year though.
I also took Carolina 3-1 score line at +1900
i wanted to take them on race to 3 but completely forgot didn’t even check what the odds or pricing was.
should be fun to pour over the advanced metrics on a 67 shot loss by carolina