Written by Graeme on Thursday, January 7th, 2016
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The Habs managed to get an important win last night over the New Jersey Devils, but the biggest story of the night was the Leafs blowing away the Ducks in Anaheim, as they won 4-0.
Even though we had tipped the Ducks and lost the bet – props to the Leafs and to Bernier. Bernier has taken a ton of stick over the last couple of seasons and it’s nice to see him pick up a couple of Ws, and also get a big shutout. Like I had said yesterday though the Ducks seemed to be riding their special teams the last few games big time. I was banking on them being at home being able to be better at 5 on 5 – but that was not the case. While they did kill 6 Leafs power plays, the Leafs deservedly won that game.
Watching the Ducks was a strong reminder of how poorly they started the season.
We have 7 games on the board today, and I’ll also be experimenting with a new betting system. Details at the bottom on that. For now let’s get to the NHL Betting Tips for January 7th, 2016:
Islanders vs Capitals Betting Tips:
Carlson has been missing from the Capitals and they’re leaking goals a fair bit without him. Both teams have a lot of offensive firepower. It’s uncertain if Halak is starting tonight or not – but even if he is, you have to expect two teams with relatively explosive offenses can get the goals in tonight to bring is to at least 5 goals. Both teams are in the top 10 for goals per game, and Washington usually concede a little bit more on the road.
Over 5 goals.
Canada: 1.71 Odds at Sports Interaction.
USA: -140 Odds at Bovada.
Everyone Else: 1.71 Odds atWilliam Hill.
Panthers vs Senators Betting Tips:
Despite the Florida Panthers run – I still find it hard to back them. I’m not sure why – but practically every game they’ve played and won I’ve looked at beforehand and couldn’t quite convince myself.
But they’re as hot as can be going up against an Ottawa team who are playing extremely poorly. They’ve picked up 4 big road wins during this run against Buffalo, Carolina, New Jersey and the Islanders. What’s notable is all 4 were dominant victories too.
Just have to take Panthers to win tonight.
Canada: 1.98 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv.
USA: -105 Odds at BetOnline..
Everyone Else: 1.98 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv.
Stars vs Jets Betting Tips:
Last few games between the teams have been high scoring. Jets you can usually bank on for goals and the Stars seem to be great at both scoring and conceding.
No team scores more than Dallas at home on a per game basis. But they still concede on average 2.35 goals per game. Jets are usually good for a couple of goals in a game, and they should concede quite a few here.
I’m going to take Dallas Stars to score at least 3 goals. Now your online sportsbook may do it differently so be sure to check. A few examples:
Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv: 1.86 odds, Race to 3 goals.
888 Sports: 1.80 odds. Total goals by Home Team Over 3.
It all depends on your sportsbook. If you have issues finding it let me know the sportsbook in the comments and I’ll have a look. Some don’t offer it though. In that case it’s a case of looking for an alternate but closer bet – or going with Over 5.5 goals.
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Experimental Betting System:
I’ve been working on two new betting systems over the season and I’m going to start posting the predictions in here for the next little while – hopefully until the end of the season at least.
One is a 1st period betting system and the other is an overtime prediction betting system.
Both systems are high variance betting systems. They are systems based on high odds bets. Take the 1st period one for example – its aim is to predict winners. The average odds for the favourite to win the 1st period is 2.65 odds. To break even, we must win 38% of all bets. I’d say I am aiming at a 43% win ratio as an ultimate goal at those odds. So that means if backing the 1st period bets – you’re going to lose more than you win in terms of quantity of bets – but still make money.
These will also not factor into the actual betting tips we provide in any way. They may actually contradict them too – we may tip one team to win, but then the overtime system says to bet overtime. At the end of the season we will re-evalute, and if we’re happy with the results then we’ll take them out of the experimental stage, and factor them into the tips.
Today, the 1st period betting system has:
Panthers to win: 3.15 odds at 888 Sports.
Wild to win: 2.65 at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv.
Americans: You can bet 1st periods at BetOnline.. It’s not obvious but when you’re on the screen listing the NHL games and the odds, at the top is a “1st period” link.
I use Bet 365 and are going to try your 1st period system. But I can only find the Panthers +0,5 to mediocre 1,41 odds. Any ideas?
Yeah Bet365 are annoying with that. They only offer +0.5/-0.5 with no alternates. Unless you use a different book for there I’d do Panthers first to score at 1.83 odds.
I try a better system to play.
Last time i bet one unit against Panthers in regulation. Lost. Tonight i put 2 units against them. If they dont lose play 4 units against and so on.
They have allready 10 wins in row and is just a meather of time to lose.
Yeah that’s pretty much the martingale system. Good luck with that – especially considering all the different variables ๐
I expect to win in max. 5 games. They must to play @ Senators, Oilers, Canucks, Flames and Lightning. I don’t think the price will be under 2.
What kind of variabes?
Exactly what BetNHL said, it’s Martingale system – look it up. I tried this and it was very frustrating. I thought 2 lose streak was a lot for Montreal so I started placing bets on montreal win. The losing streak went up to 8 loses. I stayed in the system untill they finally won but I had to bet 25 times more than the first bet. The profit was something about 6 times the first bet. The whole process took more than two weaks.
Frustrating or not but finally was profit.
I’m getting so-so odds for first period Cats: -115 so I’ll pass.
My bets today:
Caps ML – Holtby hasn’t lost in reg since Prince was at the top of the charts. (j/k but he’s on fire and the team is playing with a lot of confidence in front of him). Boychuck is out for Isles and that’s huge in stopping Caps first line.
Cats ML
Jets/Stars o5.5 – Period/Team totals aren’t up yet but I’d take
Stars o2.5 if I can get it and per. 1 o1.5
Yotes/Flames o5.5 – just look at the GF/GA for both teams, seems like a no-brainer
Big Salami u38.5 – that’s 5.5 goals/game and I see at least 4 games going </=5
good luck boys
Where can you bet on the Big Salami?
Pretty much any site offers Big Salami O/U total goals scored and Away/Home total goals scored.
Minnesota ML — I think they have turned the corner a bit and come back home, where they are tough to beat. Dubnyk playing well. Philly is a bad road team and, after a big trade, I see them letting down a bit. Slight lean on the Under as well, Philly doesn’t score much. Minny allowing about 2.33 GAA, which is about top 6 or 7 defense in the league.
Calgary ML — Flames have played very well at home of late and I believe they will avenge their earlier defeat at AZ. The Flames have a substantial series edge on the Yotes, and if Bera is in goal, I look to Calgary picking up the win.
Florida ML — Ottawa has just been scuffling lately. What are we going to get from the Sens? The team that fought back and beat the Blues the other day or the one that was shut out twice recently? First game back from a road trip, usually a flat spot. If Luongo is in net, the Panthers have a great chance to extend their wining streak to 11. They’re playing so well in every facet of the game.
LAKings in Reg — Kings didn’t play well in Colorado and let their back up goalie down, allowing several power play goals in their loss. Toronto has been playing better and Bernier has been terrific! But after a surprise win at Anaheim (to some it may not have been a shocker), I cannot see the Leafs come up with this kind of magic in consecutive nights. Quick stones the Leafs and the Kings come away victors here.
DALLAS in Reg — Lehtonen in net for Stars, who is 6-1-1 lifetime vs BJackets. Stars are 6-for-16 on the PP last four games at home and will look to bounce back after three straight (gasp!) losses. Columbus has alternated wins and losses lately, and I see them coming down to earth after upsetting the Preds the other day. I know this could be a flat spot for Stars, being their first home game in a while…that’s why I would play the Stars in regulation for lightly better value. I also lean on the OVER 5.5. goals as we all know both of these teams can score in bunches.
Wash/NYI — I can see this go either way in terms of winners and Over/Under. Holtby has been terrific and you never know if Halak will be a brick wall in net for Isles. This will be the first meeting between the two this season and first since last year’s SC playoffs. This could be a 2-1 game or 4-3 game, so I am staying away.
So are 1st period predictions added to your record, i.e are you officially tipping them?
No sir – as they’re experimental, and I just thought it’d be more fun posting them within the article. Gives me extra motivation to work on it.
I’ll keep track of the stats each day though and update them and if I’m happy with the system they’ll become official tips next season.
(Same applies for the overtime system)
Stars, Wild, Flames, and Sharks on a $20 dollar Sports Select parlay. Thoughts guys? I don’t see any of these teams dropping one at home tonight against largely inferior competition. I do wish Jimmy Howard was starting though in the tank. Guy is awful.
2-way parlay or single? single seems risky, on any given night even the best teams fail to show up. You don’t have to look farther than the Stars recent troubles for evidence of that.
Hey, I’m from Austria. What is the difference between 2-way-parlay and single parlay?
with a single parlay each of the events needs to occur for you to win. With your example, all four teams–Stars, Wild, Flames, and Sharks–need to win for the bet to pay off. This would be a single parlay. The odds of this occuring are much higher than with a 2-way parlay (or round robin) with four teams. In this case, you reduce the odds/risk by making a series of bets using combinations of two team parlays. For example:
Stars/Wild
Stars/Flames
Stars/Sharks
Wild/Flames
Wild/Sharks
Sharks/Flames
With the lower odds you reduce the risk but also get a reduced payoff. I only do these parlays with 4-6 bets. With three bets you might as well do a single parlay. (six is usually the maximum). I hope this helps.
Gotcha! Thanks a lot for your help. I’m used to bet single parlays with 3 or 4 teams. But you are right, 2-way-parlays might be the smarter decision most of the times. Especially in the NHL. ๐
*especially in NHL !!!!
๐ thanks for correcting me!
Like your 1st period picks G. Talk about two extremes:
Min/ Phil
Min 39GP: 31 goals 1stP, #6 scoring 1st, Dubnyk 1.83 GAA since Dec 1st;
Phil 38GP: 16goals 1stP, #27 scoring 1st; 2.68 GA, #3PIM;
Fla/Ott
Fla 40GP: 30 goals 1stP, #3 scoring 1st, Luongo 2.06GA & Montoya 1.69GA,
Sens: 23 goals 1stP, #26 scoring 1st, 2.78GA;
*Unfortunately Bodog doesn’t offer a 2way line just 3way. The other options for me is pick Min & Fla to score 1st or Phil under 2.5 goals; Thanks for the tips. ๐
Good luck tonight!
On your Stars/Jets tip, recommendation on how to bet at 5dimes? thanks
Bodog is shit on the 1st period lines @1.8 FLA and 1.55 MIN, I am anticipating you are not advocating making these bets at these odds.
Are you sure that you found the correct odds? Graeme usually takes “1-2-X” odds. They are higher than – let’s say for example – “draw, no bet” odds.
I wasn’t able to check last night but I think you may have been looking at the odds which factor in a push if it’s a tie. I believe with Bodog they list that, and then beside it they’ll list Wild -0.5 etc.
I know the Sens have played really bad recently, but this is the kind of game i see them winning (and the Panthers not be as focused).
I like a few ot games today, caps-isles, flyers-wild and sharks-wings.
Also i think the Flames and Kings are good picks tonight, and realistically i think the Stars will probably win but don’t think the odds are worth it.
So all in all, tough night for road teams, don’t think we’ll see many regulation wins (none if everything goes as predicted).
Ya I wouldn’t be betting against Sens in this game, coming off big road win and back at home with some injured players returning.
wow really jinxed myself in this one