Written by Graeme on Sunday, January 8th, 2023
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What a disappointment that was from the Oilers last night. Up 2-0 going into the third and blew the lead. That games shows why Oilers bets are conditional on Skinner – dude pulled off an awesome performance in that one. That guy is hard done by. Oils gonna oil.
Sens offense got the job done as I hoped – alas both goaltenders decided to put up absolute stinkers. Kraken scored 8 goals – yet only had a 1.94xG!!!!
It was a hell of a day of NHL action yesterday. Wild and Sabres over delivered with an 11 goal banger. Habs managed to get the win, two early OT high scoring games.
Great day of hockey action.
We move onto a busier than usual Sunday with 8 games on the slate.
Jets vs Canucks:
Jets come in on a nice run. Now they host the Canucks who just ended a losing run with a victory over the Avs.
Jets just beat the Canucks on this winning run 4-2 on the 29th. It’s tricky as I look at it and it just feels like a let down spot.
Funnily enough the metrics do point to that. There’s not enough overwhelming data to take the Canucks here, and the goalie situation in this game is too much of a red flag.
Stars vs Panthers:
Stars come in off two hard losses. Panthers two wins but it’s the Wings & Coyotes. Dallas a beast at home overall this season 11-4-3.
A tad concerned about the Stars offense after being shut out by the Ducks. But they were able to create the chances, had a nice rest, and are at home where they do seem to be a different team.
The Stars interestingly have the best success rate in the NHL when it comes to playing an empty net at 55.6%. I was looking at that as I was debating in regulation, and then if you believe in that well the -1.5 might be a play if the empty net stats are sound enough.
Going to go with Stars in Regulation if Oettinger in net. The OT/SO odds are fine if you want to go with that but I feel like taking that extra risk here.
Ontario: 2.20 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Canada: 2.20 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
USA: +110 Odds at BetOnline.
Everyone Else: 2.20 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2023/01/08 11:41:06 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Capitals vs Jackets:
We lost with the Caps against the Preds in a disappointing one the other night. Now they’re against the Jackets who they just beat 6-2.
Those quick turnaround matchups always weird me out. Odds on the Caps you can barely take -1.5 here. The Preds game was just a sloppy one from the Caps who hopefully will be less complacent here. Jackets did just go toe to toe with the Hurricanes.
Caps also off till Wednesday after this, and have Backstrom & Wilson in. Now that can be a concern because it can cause adjustments which change things but I think there is enough to go with Caps -1.5 here.
Ontario: 1.75 Odds at 888 Sports.
Canada: 1.75 Odds at 888 Sports.
USA: -135 Odds at BetOnline.
Everyone Else: 1.75 Odds at 888 Sports.
(Odds correct as of 2023/01/08 11:41:06 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Blackhawks vs Flames:
I’m not even close to having enough confidence in Calgary to take them -1.5 on the road, even if it is against the Blackhawks.
Coyotes vs Penguins:
Penguins on a struggling run right now. Coyotes are actually a beastly home team this season at 7-3-2. Looking at the metrics this really comes off as a real 50/50 one for me.
I’m going to roll the dice on Coyotes incl OT/SO if Vejmelka in net here. I see a lot of value in this one. Often with value plays like this, there isn’t enough for me to actually post it here. But I feel there is enough. Yeah the Pens have lost to a few of the better teams in the NHL (either by standings or metrics) but the Coyotes have pulled off wins against a couple of big teams here.
And hey I ain’t holding a gun to your head forcing you to make this play – you’re all big boys and gals!
Ontario: 2.87 Odds at Sports Interaction
Canada: 2.98 Odds at BetOnline.
USA: +200 Odds at MyBookie.
Everyone Else: 2.98 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2023/01/08 11:41:06 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Wild vs Blues:
Not interested in touching this one after the Wilds battle yesterday against Buffalo. Plus both teams on a back to back. Pass.
Flyers vs Leafs:
Eh no bet on this one with the Leafs on a B2B.
Ducks vs Bruins:
Not taking Bruins -1.5 in this spot.
Graeme Thank you for your thoughts and analysis 🙂
You’re welcome!
So far I’ve only handicapped the three earlier games. And came to pretty much the same conclusions.
There’s no one who enjoys a Winnipeg at home bet more than me and yet I couldn’t pull the trigger.
There’s a huge mismatch in goal. Hellebuyck has been one of the top goalies this year. Vancouvers goaltending is below average whoever they choose. Winnipeg is a team that for whatever reason tends to have a significant home ice advantage. Both in the record 15-6 (71 percent) and the goal splits. 3.33 GF/GP and 2.24 GA/GP at home.
As brutal as Vancouvers defense and goaltending are and as awful as their season started, I actually think they’ve overachieved. They’ve gone 15-13-1 since November which makes them technically an above .500 team the last 3 months. Vancouvers offense always keeps them around despite them seemingly finding new ways to blow games on a nightly basis.
Winnipeg is 20-10 since November. I should gladly take the Jets if Hellebuyck is in net as I’ve already done many times this year. I want nothing to do with this game though. Can’t explain it.
Florida/ Dallas
Also landed exactly the same here. Priced Dallas -155. I see they’re currently about -135. Under that in my notes wrote Dallas regulation and Dallas -1.5 lol. Will end up going with just a half unit play on Dallas to win at -135 price. Should be more aggressive but having priced them higher, I’m cool with that being the play.
I keep waiting for the Panther surge. The Panther Power Play miiight be turning around? It’s underachieved all year. But 9 power play goals in their last 10. 4 of the last 5 games they’ve been able to score at least one. And last 3 games straight. Of course the penalty kill has given it all back. 13 power play goals against in the last 10 games. Dallas power play is clicking recently. Another mismatch in goal. Bobrovsky starting to possibly turn a corner as Spencer Knight begins to regress. Still hard for me to fully trust Bobrovsky. Especially with that defense. I’ve read you guys talk about Floridas defense and said aloud myself while watching and wondering how Marc Staal is still able to get 18 minutes a game.
Washington
Also landed -1.5. This will be a full unit play for me. I’m waiting to see if Merzlikins is in net for the Blue Jackets and I’d consider a -2.5 depending on the price and if it’s available. Currently it isn’t and the -1.5 is going off at around -130.
There’s been no improvement by Merzlikins at all this year. He just faced this Caps team at home where the Jackets perform better. It was a 6-2 loss to the Ovechkins three days ago. He’s 2-4 over his last 6. How he got two wins I couldn’t even tell ya. 25 goals against(4.16) and an .857 sv%.
Washington has a top 10 offense and a top 10 defense. You’ve also mentioned the Wilson and Backstrom returns as well. Timing and conditioning are great points on whether they’ll make an immediate positive impact. But on the plus side it’s not as if these guys have never played together so it hopefully shouldn’t take long to get the chemistry back. CBJ with a 1.93 gf/gp and 4.00 ga/gp on the road.
Haven’t got to the Penguins and Coyotes game but your write ups got me intrigued. So that’ll be one I try to look at if time allows me. If not, I’m interested in at least watching the matchup as I admittedly have not actually watched much Coyotes this last month. Will then either take the rest of the day off or get a jump start on the smaller 4 game schedule tomorrow.
Always appreciate reading your analysis. I take a lot of it into consideration when it comes to future games so much appreciated!
My current plays on the early games are
Dallas -135 at a half unit.
I’ve also seen Spencer Knight is confirmed for Florida still no word on Oettinger.
Washington-1.5 at -130
I mentioned trying to look for a -2.5 if Merzlikins is in goal for the Blue Jackets. I’m pretty confident the -130 price will still be available so I can wait closer to game time if I ultimately decide against it.
See that Merzlikins is confirmed for Columbus. Going with Washington -2.5 at +105 instead of the -1.5. Washington is 14-8 in games decided by 3 or more goals. CBJ is 4-17 in similar situation.
What is ” unregulated sportsbook ” ? I live in Quebec and ever since Ontario legalized its made life miserable if you’re in another Province . Thx
Sportsbooks that we aren’t allowed to display within Ontario, as they aren’t regulated within Ontario. If you are outside of Ontario you should be able to see them as we geo-target but I checked your IP in IP databases and it is showing it as Ontario even though you are in Quebec.
Most of the time it is BetOnline. Occasionally Bodog/Bovada or GT Bets.
And yeah the whole Ontario legalization has been a nightmare. The work involved on that has been brutal and I’ve spent hundreds of hours on it and making sure we are compliant.
Thanks for that. First Bodog was kicked out of Quebec. Then 888 sport refunded me in Cdn $ even though my account was US $ and only allow Ontario bets now.. Now Bet365 ( probably the best book I’ve seen ) wants to geolocate everything Sigh !
Yeah Bet365 is the biggest headache. Them and the OLG. You can’t have any remote desktop apps installed or VPNs etc – both of which I use for work.
I ended up having to buy a whole separate cellphone which is used literally just for betting at Bet365 ha. Have to take it out with me if going to a bar for games or whatever, and connect to my own phone via hotspot or the bars wifi. So silly. It’s all Ontario too – I’ve spoken to gambling companies and regulation everywhere else was so easy compared to this.
How come Penguins are such favorites today? Are people aware Coyotes only have 12 games at home so far this season? They’ve got over twice as many (26) away games, which is always gonna make a difference in the standings!
Although Penguins are on a bad run, they are a better team than this run shows, but I still think it’s dumb to put them as this big favorites against the Coyotes. Coyotes won their last 3 at home, Penguins lost their last 4 away. Coyotes are 7-3-2 at home, and Penguins are 9-9-2 away.
I’m putting money on Coyotes. There’s value here. Coyotes incl OT.
I already bet on Jets -1.5, Stars in regulation and Capitals -1.5, before writing this.
I think Blackhawks v Calgary is gonna hit atleast 6 goals, and the over is low at 5.5, so I’m going with that.
Flyers – Leafs will be high scoring. 9 goals or more. I’ll back the over 6.5.
I feel like Bruins -1.5 is a no brainer. Ducks lost 10 of 19 at home in regulation, Bruins won 11 of 17 away in regulation. Bruins is also just that much better. Ducks might get 1 goal. Maybe 2. Bruins will get 3-5. I feel the -1.5 is safe.
BONUS: Go bet on Thunder in the NBA. Luka Doncic is out for the Mavs and they’re on the road. Thunder -4.5 is free money!
Oh yeah and Wild. Wild wins in regulation!
Reading your Arizona play set me off on a deep dive. Yep doesn’t take much.
Ultimately I couldn’t get there. While I found some positives in Arizona: The price point on taking Arizona probably your biggest reason in taking a shot on them. Pens in my opinion should top out at 63 percent which would be -170. They’re currently going off at -230. I admit I’m a little low on them but that’s 69 percent ,which even if you factor I’m off by a few, is still a significant gap.
No Jarry and though I feel DeSmith has been a little hard done as far as record goes, that’s a tick down in goaltending. No Letang is a tick down to their offensive contribution from the d-line and the power play. Pittsburgh does perform worse on the road and is negative in the Road Goals For vs Goals Against. Arizona ticks up at home. I do feel like it’s such a small sample size even though they have beat some top teams there. I don’t feel any of this is priced in the line giving you value on Arizona at home.
But the struggles by Vejmelka, the amount of penalties they take and the shots for and against at home still have such a huge gap. Last in the league in shots for at home with 26.3. Second worst in the league at home in shots against at 36 per game. Vejmelka is 5-7-2 over the last month or so. 3.71 GAA during that span .889 sv % and 33.5 shots. In his last 14 games, he’s conceded 3 or more goals in 13 of them. I wouldn’t be surprised by a 5-3 Pittsburgh win. They’ll need prolly 2 power play goals and an empty netter to get there though.Pittsburgh has had a tough schedule of opponent recently and Arizona is a significant step down in competition.
Couldn’t co-sign the play. Just my two cents. But I do want this play to come in for you and I agree there is value. I did look at potential Arizona goal scorers. Narrowed it down to Keller (+170), Crouse (+255), and Gostisbehere (+475). For the Pens there’s 5 guys due to break out. Pitts top line of Guentzel Crosby and Rust have gone a bit cold last five. Malkin and Rakell as well. Just 2 goals between those top 5 players if I got that right. I narrowed down to Guentzel (+110) and Rakell (+175).
Ultimately I’ll take Arizonas Clayton Keller to score +170. And I have to take the Pens score line 5-3 at +2800. That’s the score line I keep going back to so I won’t live it down if it comes thru and I didn’t put at least a pizza bet down on it. Still rooting for Zona though.
Arizona Clayton Keller to score +170
Penguins 5-3 score line +2800
Thanks for accidentally giving me something to do while watching sports today. Also nice of you to clear up that nasty rumor and clarify that you DO NOT hold guns to peoples heads forcing them to make plays. But if you did, I’m from Jersey and we like to mind our business over here.