Written by Scott on Monday, January 8th, 2024
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Only 4 games yesterday.
The Hawks beat the Flames 4-3 in their first game without Bedard. Blackwell had 2 goals and an assist. Carlson scored with under a minute left to break the tie and the Caps beat the Kings 4-3.
Scheifele scored twice and Ehlers had 1 and 1 when the Jets beat the Coyotes 6-2 with the Jets outshooting the Coyotes 36-17. The final game of the night was the Wings in Anaheim to play the Ducks amd the Wings won 3-2 for their 3rd win in a row.
Another 4 games scheduled for us today.
Penguins vs Flyers Betting Tips:
They played twice already this season back in December and the Flyers won both, but the first was in a shootout and the second was in overtime.
The Penguins ended December with 3 straight wins but have gone 1-2 this month. The Flyers have gone 1-1-1 this month.
For goals per game the Pens are ranked 20th and the Flyers 25th. For shots on goal the Pens are 4th and the Flyers 7th. They are both tied for 6th in goals allowed.
The Penguins road record of 9-7-3 is really close to the Flyers home record of 9-7-2.
As you can see from the above mentioned stats these teams are close.
Canucks vs Rangers Betting Tips:
The Canucks are in 1st in the Pacific and 4th overall with 53 points, the Rangers are in 1st in the Metro and 2nd overall with 54 points. The Jets are in 1st overall also with 54 points.
They have played once back in October and the Rangers won that 4-3 in overtime.
This should be a good game between two of the top teams in the league this season.
The Canucks are 1st in GPG and 4th in GAPG, the Rangers are 9th in GPG and 6th in GAPG.
The Canucks have gone 11-7-2 on the road and the Rangers 13-5 at home.
This is tough to call. Both teams have been great so far this season and it could go either way.
Stars vs Wild Betting Tips:
They played each other on November 12th and the Stars won that one with ease 8-3 in Minnesota.
The Stars have dropped their last 3 games and are in 3rd in the Central. They are scoring more than they allow but they are still just hanging on in the standings.
The Wild won their last game 4-3 in overtime against the Jackets but had lost the 4 straight before that. They are allowing more than they score.
Both teams are missing some key players with the Stars without Heiskanen and Oettinger and the Wild missing Kaprizov, Spurgeon, Gustavsson and Foligno.
With both teams having so many players out its tough to try and predict an outcome.
Bruins vs Avalanche Betting Tips:
The Bruins are in 1st in the Atlantic and tied for 1st overall with 54 points. They are 9th in GPG, 5th in GAPG, have the 5th best powerplay and 3rd ranked penalty kill.
The Avalanche in 2nd in the Central and 5th overall. They are 7-2-1 over last 10 and rank 2nd in goals and 18th in goals allowed.
This is another game where both teams are some of the best in the league so far this season.
Even looking at their results based on where they play doesn’t help in finding a edge with the Bruins going 12-5-3 on the road and the Avalanche going 16-5 in Colorado.
Just made an updated Power Rankings. It continues to be a difficult project for me. Not just what would seem like a simple task of which teams is better, but also attempting to attach a number of just how much better or worse a team is. I might make a separate post of this. With only four games, I’ll try to work through them trying to identify any potential value on the lines.
Vancouver at NY Rangers
I made this game Rangers -140. It opened with the Rangers -162. Since then the line has moved towards Vancouver with the Rangers now at -142. In hindsight I probably should have grabbed Vancouver who were available at +136. It was slightly below the +140 I was looking for but pretty insignificant now that I think about it. Let’s breakdown the opening line and where we are at now.
Rangers -162 is roughly 61.8 percent chance to win. Removing Rangers 5 percent for home and it’s probably 2.3 percent of vig built in there as well. That gets the Rangers down to 54.5 percent. I have the Rangers 1.5 percent better than Vancouver and even that can be debated. Regardless of that the 4.5 percent better than Vancouver feels way too high. Unfortunately the Vancouver +136 was bought up and doesn’t look like it’s coming back.
I don’t think the severe line move indicates an automatic Vancouver win however. So I wouldn’t look to tail this play now at +120. I think it was just the sharps trying to grab value on a line set too high. At this point it would be a stay away for me and any further drop would become a potential buy on the Rangers.
Shesterkin being announced would actually have me lean that way. Though if Quick were announced I might potentially consider the Vancouver +120. To be fair, the Save Percentages and GAA for Vancouver their last five have been poor. Small sample but should still be noted.
Both teams are at the top of their divisions, with similar records. Vancouver has more wins in regulation and a goal differential nearly double the Rangers. Vancouver also has arguably the three worst teams in the league in its conference and two of them in its division. Which may have helped them pad their stats. Both teams similar records over the last 10 as well. No crazy injuries to report. Rangers with the loss of Chytil and Kakko which affects their third line depth. But both have been out since November so the adjustments are already priced in.
Advantage for Rangers home record vs Vancouver away record. Though the Vancouver Away record isn’t poor. Canucks 11-7-2 on the road compared to 14-4-1 at home. Rangers a solid 13-5-0 at home to go with 13-5-2 on the road.
At this point I would look to Rangers or nothing if Shesterkin is confirmed. Rangers Home record and Shesterkin’s recent form, combined with Vancouver conceding 4 goals in each of their last 4 games, would have me lean towards a Rangers win. My buy price on the Rangers would be -135 though and I don’t see it getting there unless Quick is announced. So this is currently a stay away. Vancouver plays again tomorrow at the Islanders so depending how they setup the goalies for this one maybe tomorrow will present better value.
Pittsburgh at Philadelphia
So I made Philly a -120 with most of that being home ice. It opened Pittsburgh -120 and is currently Penguins -125. Flyers now +105 at home would interest me, but I’m not sure I like the spot.
Penguins getting healthier. Rakell back for 9 games now and has 4 goals and 5 assists in that span. Rust back for 3 games and has recorded an assist. Add them to Guentzel, Crosby and Malkin and talent wise it’s hard to see who Philly has that can matchup.
Philly has gotten tremendous performance out of Konecny. But he’s scored in 4 of his last 5 games and might be due some regression. Farabee and Tippett have been held goalless in their last 5 and 6 respectively.
It’ll also be interesting who the Flyers go with in goal. Ersson has performed well the last two months now. Hart has been inconsistent since returning his last 5 games.
Pittsburgh seems to be trending up while Philly seems to be trending down. Penguins slightly better over their last 10, and the Flyers now just 4 points above them making this game that much more critical for both teams. Flyers lead the series 2-0 and it’s hard to imagine them going up 3-0. Both games went past regulation making them somewhat of a coin toss to begin with. Can the Flyers seemingly win 3 straight coin toss games?
Taking Penguins -125 would mean going against my current Power Rankings. Is the +105 enough to entice me to make a play on the Flyers even if does represent value? Probably not and I’m not sure what the price would have to get to before I’m willing to make a play on the Flyers.
Dallas Vs Minnesota
I made Dallas -125 road favorites here. Stars have opened-130 and currently up to -142. So does this present value on the Wild?
Fleury already confirmed for the Wild. He’s a goalie I haven’t had much faith or interest in backing. His goals against haven’t been terrible, but has achieved a Save Percentage over 90 just once in the 4 games since Gustavsson’s injury. They were struggling to score goals as well up until Columbus found a whole new way to blow a game.
Wild looked to have potentially turned a corner when switching coaches. They started to score and Gustavsson was starting to perform better. That has been derailed by injuries though. The list now includes Gustavsson, Brodin, Foligno, Kaprizov, Lettieri, and Spurgeon.
Dallas doesn’t have as many injuries but the two they do are significant. Oettinger has been out since December 15 and they’ve now lost Heiskanen on the back line. Dallas has lost three straight and their last two wins both came against Chicago. Wedgewood has recorded 5 wins in the 10 games since Oettinger’s injury but has a Save Percentage of just .881. He’s also given up more than 3 goals in 5 of those games. Oettinger has been upgraded to day to day since the 3rd, so monitor the starting goalies, as his return should be imminent.
Neither teams current form is great and with the injuries to both teams number one goalies, it’s tough to back either team confidently. I would lean towards the value of getting the Wild as a home dog of +120, but don’t know if it’s enough to make this a play.
I think a safer play could be Wild Team Total Over 2.5 at a decent -150. Wedgewood has conceded 4 or more in 4 of his last 5. He’s allowed less than 3 in just 5 of his 18 games played this year. The risk would be having to rely on an injury plagued Wild offense who’s struggled to score recently. Had The Blue Jackets been able to hit the empty net, the Wild would have failed to score more than 2 vs them as well. Also Oettinger could start this game being upgraded and close to a return.
Another option I’ll play will be Draw after regulation at +360. If close late both teams might be content to secure the point. Also with no real shut down goalie for either team, it feels like no lead will be safe either. These two teams also play each other again on Wednesday at Dallas, so the Stars may look to hold serve here on the road.
Boston vs Colorado
I made this Colorado -125 and that’s right where its opened. Since, Colorado has taken some action up to -130.
Colorado had been going well until getting blitzed early by Florida. They tried to make a game of it tying the score twice, before giving up 4 straight down the stretch. Could the blow out and slow start last time out make this a better all around effort for them in front of the home crowd?
Colorado does have a significantly better record at home than on the road. Bostons away record is good as well though. Both Power Plays are solid and Boston tends to take more penalties than it draws which may present opportunities for the Avs.
Boston has the better goaltending and it’s tough to rely on the Avs current goaltenders vs top teams. This is a true tough matchup for me to call and I don’t even really have a lean at the current line.
So far any real plays would require some more line movement. While I considered a play on Philly based on value it’s ultimately a stay away. Vancouver had opening line value, not because I think they will necessarily win though. Currently I’d be closer to a Rangers play especially if Shesterkin is confirmed. Wild +120 was very close. But the injuries and goaltending situations caused me to opt for two different plays on this game and probably closes the book on this game for me. Boston vs Colorado feels like the right range and I dunno what would have to happen to the line that would gravitate me to either side with confidence.
The two plays I’ve made
Minnesota Team Total Over 2.5 -150. You may want to check the starting goalies first to confirm it won’t be Oettinger.
Dallas vs Minnesota Draw after Regulation +360.
These are probably not the sharpest of plays especially backing the draw, but it was a difficult card for me to find any real value.
I don’t necessarily agree with your conclusions if the previews BUT you write interesting stuff. Do you do this for living or you are a true passionate?