Written by Graeme on Thursday, June 13th, 2024
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Game 3 of the Stanley Cup Finals take place tonight, and it’s a critical one for the Edmonton Oilers.
They are down 2-0, but are on home ice as they look to turn this series around.
They have scored just the lone goal in 6 periods of hockey against Florida. A bit of a concern.
Last game, we saw a lot less shots than the previous game by the Oilers but it really wasn’t a quality over quantity type deal. They only racked up a 1.39 xG, compared to game 1 where they had an incredible 5.61 xG but were shutout.
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Here are our thoughts on tonights game:
Scott: The Oilers were able to get one past Bobrovsky but they needed more when the Panthers won 4-1.
The Panthers also scored a powerplay goal which was the first the Oilers allowed in their last 34 times being shorthanded.
The Oilers are going to need to have more shots on goal as they were outshot 22-7 after 2 periods.
If the Oilers are to have a chance in this series they have to keep their emotions in check as Draisaitl threw a high hit that took Barkov in the head forcing him from the game and Foegele went knee on knee on Luostarinen. Now that their streak of successful penalty kills is over that can’t take stupid penalties.
With this game in Edmonton you have to think that the Oilers are going to have a better effort in this game with the home crowd behind them. But after the way the first two games have gone I feel better just avoiding this.
No Bet
Graeme: Oilers go into this one as pretty hefty favourites at 1.74. Do they warrant it?
They have won 6 of 9 games at home. A CF% of 52.28%, Fenwick 53.95%. Neither of whcih are too big. GF% of 57.14 which is 2nd best home record (Panthers are 1st based on every team in the playoffs). 57.94% xGF%, HDCF% 60.77.
On the road, 6 wins in 11 games. CF% of 49.94, FF% of 49.72%. GF% is a lot lower at 50.91. xGF% of 50.4. HDCF% down to 48.94.
Basically, looking at all the metrics to see if there is enough to warrant the Oilers based on their home metrics versus the road metrics. And I mean – there’s definitely areas of it to back it up. But it’s not overwhelming.
What’s even more concerning is comparing the Panthers road metrics to Oilers home metrics, where Corsi & Fenwick are essentially the same. Panthers better GF%, Oilers slightly better xGF%.
Basically – there’s not enough value on the Oilers here to back them. I don’t believe it’s an +EV bet. But there’s also not enough to go with the Panthers either.
Instead I’m going to go with Over 5.5 Goals. This really is a do-or-die sorta game for Edmonton and I think we see them play looser. However when they have did that at home, they often concede more and concede overall more at home than on the road.
