Written by Graeme on Wednesday, June 15th, 2022
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Well we are down to just two teams left, as the Stanley Cup Finals begin tonight.
The Tampa Bay Lightning make yet another final, and they will be hosting the Colorado Avalanche.
Tampa got here by defeating the Toronto Maple Leafs in a feisty series that went to Game 7. They sweeped the Panthers off the back of some hot goaltending. They started slow against the Rangers, but then were able to take over.
The Colorado Avalanche got here thanks to two sweeps. They sweeped the Preds and Oilers, and also defeated the Blues 4-2.
This feels like a final that was meant to be, and could be a real passing of the guard moments. Here are our thoughts:
Avalanche vs Lightning Bets:
Graeme: Well I gotta say – man, I have been crushing these series predictions. I got both conference finals correct. That puts me at an impressive 10-3 for 8.07u. Pretty happy with that as futures can be so risky – even if it is over just a few games.
We saw these two teams face off twice in the regular season. Avs won both. Tampa had the better xG in both. In the February 10th game, Tampa had a ton of high danger chances but couldn’t convert.
Looking at the offensive metrics for teams at /60 throughout the playoffs – Avs have the 2nd highest Corsi For. Panthers had 4th highest and Tampa stifled them. Avs have lowest CA/60 and Lightning had no problem against Panthers #3 or Leafs #4. Very similar Fenwick metrics.
Tampa never really faced a team with high xG though (Panthers #10, Leafs #12, Rangers #16) which is interesting as the Avs have the 3rd highest xG. Avs actually have the lowest xGA/60 as well.
Basically going through all this – the Avs are freaking excellent, and it will take a LOT to actually beat them. They’re better against Tampa So do Tampa have what it takes?
They’re better than Tampa in every advanced metric. The odds right now are about Avs 1.58 and Tampa are 2.50.
That seems absolutely dead on I would say. Like if I was setting lines yeah that seems about right. What that means is there is really no value in taking either.
So I hate to say this – but in my opinion, there is no value in betting on a winner, and I don’t see any value in the handicaps either. Tampa will need Vasy to step up bigger than ever but we know he can do that. If you want to get to the nitty gritty then Avs -1.5 is fine to bet IF you don’t believe he can stop them.
Yeah – I honestly don’t know here. I’m just going to throw out a prop bet pretty much for the fun of it here. Series to be tied after 4 games at 2.45 odds.
Honestly from a serious betting perspective – I’m probably done for the year. I think I’ll be doing small prop bets for individual games but it’s hard to see if there will be any good angles.
Scott: The Avalanche have again had plenty of time off to prepare after they swept the Oilers. They are 12-2 in this postseason after sweeping both the Oilers and the Preds and winning the series against the Blues 4-2.
Makar is leading the team in points in the playoffs with 22. MacKinnon is behind him with 18 and Landeskog and Rantanen both have 17. A big question they have is who they will have between the pipes in game one. Kuemper was great but suffered an injury in game 1 and the Avs went with Francouz who was great and won the next 3 games for them. With Kadri expected to miss the remainder of the playoffs, the Avs depth will be needed and tested in the finals.
The Lightning are all to familiar with the position they find themselves in. For the 3rd year in a row they will be playing for the Stanley Cup. The beat the Leafs in 7 games in round 1, swept the Presidents Trophy winning Panthers in round 2 and just beat the Rangers in 6 games in round 3.
Kucherov leads the team in playoff scoring with 23 points in 17 games, Palat has 16 and Stamkos 15. Hedman has played a big role in their success this postseason as he has 14 points and averaging almost 25 minutes per game. Vasilevskiy has regained his play and gives them a chance to win each and every game. Point might be back for them and he will go a long way towards their three-peat.
This should be a great series between two of the best offensives in the league. The Lightning have the major edge in goaltending but they have played a bunch of hockey over the last 3 seasons and that may catch up to them. The Avalanche will come into this series rested but will their goaltending be good enough to stop them?
Tough to call a winner here and I think this series could be a long one. If I had to pick a winner I would say the goaltending will be the difference and the Lightning have the best shot but its bet against the Avs at this point when they will be rested. I wanted to go with Over 5.5 games but the odds for that were bad so I’ll go with when the series will end.
Series ends in 6 games – 3.10 odds.
Thanks for all the hard work this season boys. I certainly appreciate how much effort goes into researching and thinking about each game night in and night out when you’ve got real jobs, families and other distractions as well. Even though my participation has trailed off in the last couple of seasons, I always look forward to your takes. Keep up the great work.
I am on the Bolts to win the Cup for four simple reasons, one of which neither of you mentioned and it’s key.
(1) Odds are simply too good to pass up
(2) Experience – These guys know how to win. They have been through this and have the chemistry and spine to get it done. One bad game is not going to throw them off.
(3) Vasi – He can steal a game, no, he can steal a series. He’s the best in the world and you don’t bet against that.
(4) Coops – You cannot overlook how important coaching is to this team. This guy is the best in the business and he knows how to make the adjustments and decisions that will win. That’s a huge advantage that can’t be discounted.
I am not picking a winner tonight but I do have some props that I like:
Final tip: After you’ve watched the best players in the world grind it out, grab yourself a game stick and go watch Shoresy on Hulu. You won’t regret it.
GLTA SDB
Adding:
Ouch. 1 in 5? You’re talking so much about how good the Lightning are, but you’re not mentioning the Avs have been a different level and smashed the playoffs. Avs gonna win this series, and I even think they might sweep
Expecting a very strong showing by both teams, but I think the edge goes to Colorado on ice because of speed and depth of scoring talent, but we’ll see, as the finals is a different breed of hockey than early rounds. I’m not sure about betting an Over/Under for Game 1, as I want to see how these teams are going to play.
Game One Lean: full game OVER 6.0
Game 1 may be the highest scoring game as teams aren’t yet dialed into tight strategy yet, they have to play a game to see how things will happen. Details to figure. This may therefore be the most “open” style game. Then it tightens up and scoring may drop.
Thus far in the 2022 playoffs:
Tampa: 52 goals for, +11 in the balance
Avs: 65 goals for, +25 goals in the balance
Avs have played 3 less games than Tampa to this point, but Edmonton let in a lot of goals, as did Toronto. So it’s some +/- whatevers.
I put an asterisk on the Tampa/Florida series as Florida collapsed on offense, which is not purely Vasi’s doing, I didn’t see that Florida was showing up anywhere near 100%. Florida had the highest “goals for” in the regular season, at 340, and they got stonewalled. Avs are well rested and will supply far more potent offense than Florida. Florida looked tired, and the Avs look like crazed Vikings these days. I suspect the Avs can outskate Tampa in certain situations. Probably a close series and I don’t see either team having a clear edge before Game 3 arrives, they’ll have to battle it out to find some clarity on how this series will be handled. Best of luck, folks!
This could be the best hockey in 5 years!!!
Good read Ratts, but I think tonight will be tighter than previous game 1s as these guys feel each other out. One thing for sure: this is going to be a great series.
If you bet against your reads, you’d be rich mate 😉
Don’t take it personally, it’s just fun