Written by Graeme on Sunday, March 12th, 2023
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A very dsiappointing result from the Hurricanes yesterday. The Knights struck first, and the Canes could not tie it up despite some good attempts. That goal just before the end of the 2nd periods eemed to just take the wind out of their sails.
That is both times this season the Knights have managed to beat the Canes. Maybe just one of those things where one team has another teams number. Disappointing, but it is what it is.
Some good hockey last night and if you haven’t seen it yet, be sure to check out that incredible Marner goal. Awesome one that.
A busy Sunday so let’s get to it – lot of teams on a back to back which is always offputting.:
Red Wings vs Bruins:
Repeat of yesterday. Fine with skipping that one. Don’t hate the Wings odds honestly considering they made it a bit of a contest yesterday.
Penguins vs Rangers:
Pens got their first win in regulation in a few games, with a nice one over Philly. Now going up against a struggling Rangers team who scraped the win against Buffalo in OT. Penguins slight favourites here but I’m still too concerned about their defensive metrics, even if the Rangers are struggling to score from the chances they are creating.
Devils vs Hurricanes:
Books have this one as a coinflip. Seems about right. I’d give the slight edge to the Devils, but that Hurricanes shellacking yesterday has me concerned. Might wake them up big time. Yeah seems a very tight one I’m not loving any best here.
Blues vs Knights:
Knights with the big win yesterday. Blues on a two game winning streak. Looking at the metrics, not enoughf or me to take Knights in regulation. It’s actually fairly even in a lot of them. Blues defense and goaltending letting them down more than anything else. Like I agree Knights are favourites but I don’t feel confident enough on the regulation bet here.
Lightning vs Jets:
Tampa with the win over the Blackhawks yesterday. Jets got the 5-4 win in OT against Florida. Corsi/Fenwick all pretty close. Goals scored basically the same, slight xGF boost to Tampa. Goals conceded bad for both teams. Yeah I am not seeing a bet here. Neither offense lights it up enough to back the over, although with the defensive issues of both I could see it.
Flames vs Senators:
Flames coming in off that disaster against the Ducks. Sens just got thumped 5-2 by the Canucks yesterday on what has been a bit of a mess road trip so far.
Flames big favourites. It really depends greatly on their offense. Like if they were producing, I’d give them the edge for sure but they have so many games where they just switch off.
Calgary look like they are changing their lines about to hopefully spark things.
The story of that Sens loss yesterday was penalties and that really affected them. They need to play with more discipline.
Mandolese is projected today. He hasn’t been too bad so far from what we’ve seen, although this is, on paper, a more dangerous offense.
Eh – I think at the price, there’s enough to take the Sens today. You might want to look for a “safer” play like draw no bet. Or just not take the risk – I mean this Flames offense know they are in the headlines at the moment and that may motivate them. But I’m fine with a risk on the Sens here. I think the price has value.
Senators win incl OT/SO
Ontario: 2.65 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Canada: 2.66 Odds at BetOnline.
USA: +166 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Everyone Else: 2.66 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2023/03/12 11:04:40 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Coyotes vs Wild:
Coyotes come in on the back of some fine results. The Wild offense has started scoring to complement their defense. Like I said yesterday sometimes an injury to a key player actually changes things for the better, and that’s what happened yesterday for Minnesota as they managed to score 5.
It’s tricky because you’re betting that their offense keeps going. The nice thing is that the Coyotes defensive metrics aren’t too great. Their SCGA/60 isn’t bad but the others are very poor.
This is a tough defense to play against and I’m going to go with Wild in Regulation. and hope their offense continues to click.
Ontario: 1.83 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Canada: 1.83 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
USA: -125 Odds at BetOnline.
Everyone Else: 1.83 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2023/03/12 11:04:40 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Ducks vs Predators:
No bet on this one. Preds probably have enough to see off the Ducks in regulation but it’s close.
No bets or leans. Not surprising for a Sunday, 6 of 8 games have both teams on back-to-backs, and Calgary is on my “never bet again this season” list. Low-scoring Nashville on the road, on a back-to-back against Anaheim, is not tempting. The NHL version of the NCAAB’s March Madness is right on schedule.
Thank you Graeme! Bs fastest team to 50 wins. Problem. 😣
Pittsburgh Jake Guentzel to score +130
NJ Jack Hughes +125
Has been able to score vs Carolina this season. I believe he’s six games without a goal.
Vegas Jack Eichel +130
Winnipeg Kyle Connor +165
Tampa Bay Sergachev +550
Hedman could be back today dropping Sergachev back down a line, but sometimes it takes a couple games even if he was only out a couple. And I’ve liked the way Sergachev has played recently.
St. Louis Faulk +600
Super early here as he hasn’t scored that long ago. But the Blues still lack scoring options which was my reasoning when I took him last time. Gets to face a Vegas goalie making his debut as Jiri Petera is listed as “likely” last I checked. Stranger things have happened.
Parlay Both to score First
Boston Bertuzzi and Tampa Bay Hagel +26500
Don’t judge me. Bertuzzi returns to Detroit after a back to back. Everyone else could be fatigued. He may still have the adrenaline.
Stamkos left yesterdays game and may not play today. If so Hagel should benefit by moving up a line. That’ll put him with Kucherov who likes to pass and may try to get the puck to Hagel early.
“Don’t hate the Wings odds honestly considering they made it a bit of a contest yesterday.” ~Graeme
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