Written by Scott on Tuesday, March 12th, 2024
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4 games yesterday
The Blues beat the Bruins 4-1 the loss cost the Bruins a chance at 1st in both the Atlantic and the League. The Rangers beat the Devils 3-1 and the Devils continue to fall and are now 3-7-0 in last 10.
The Jets beat the Caps 3-0 and are 7-3 last 10 and in 2nd in the Central and are only 2 back of the division leading Stars in points with 1 games in hand. The Kings beat the Isles 3-0 snapping the Isles 6 game win streak.
10 games tonight.
Penguins vs Senators Betting Tips:
Both teams are falling further away from the playoff picture.
The Pens have lost their last 3 games and are 8 points back.
The Sens have lost 7 in a row and are about 20 points out.
Passing.
Rangers vs Hurricanes Betting Tips:
This could be the best game of the night.
The Rangers played yesterday and beat the Devils 3-1. They’re 7-2-1 in last 10 and ranked 9th in GPG, 15th in shots, 4th in GAPG and 10th in shots allowed.
The Canes are 7-2-1 in last 10 and have win their last 3 straight. They are 8th in GPG, 6th in shots, 7th in GAPG and 1st in shots allowed.
The Canes have better Corsi numbers but they are pretty much even in GF and GA/60. I would say this is a game the Canes should win but the Rangers started Quick yesterday so Shesterkin should start here and he gives them a chance each night he plays.
This is a game I would enjoy just watching instead of stressing over.
Wings vs Sabres Betting Tips:
The Wings fell out of the playoffs when the Isles won on Sunday. With the Isles losing yesterday they are back in 8th. They are tied in points with the Isles and they are on a 5 game losing skid.
The Sabres are in 12th and the teams they are chasing have played fewer games than they have.
The Wings are scoring more and allowing less than the Sabres but it’s the losing skid that has me put off of this game.
Jackets vs Canadiens Betting Tips:
Nothing here.
Sharks vs Flyers Betting Tips:
The Sharks are in 2nd last overall. They have the same amount of points as the Hawks but have played 2 fewer games.
The Flyers are coming off of that pounding the took from the Lightning that saw Tortorella get ejected, fined $50,000 and suspended for 2 games.
I’m curious as to how the team will respond to that outburst and if they will come together after Torts lost his shit due to the officiating.
Would need to take the Flyers -1.5 and the odds for that are only around 1.83 which isn’t worth it in my opinion.
Panthers vs Stars Betting Tips:
Big game here and another that has potential to be game of the night.
The Atlantic Divison leading Panthers are in Dallas to play the Central Divison leading Stars.
The Panthers are 8-2 in last 10 and in the road where they have been great going 23-8-2. The Stars are 6-3-1 in last 10 and riding a 5 game win streak into this. At home they have gone 19-8-4.
This could go either way. The Panthers are allowing 1.77 GA over last 10 but their XGA is 3.60 so goaltending has been huge for then. I feel safer just avoiding this game but would lean towards a Panthers win.
Coyotes vs Wild Betting Tips:
The Coyotes are almost 20 points back of the wild card. Mathematically they can still make it but it isn’t going to happen.
After the Wild pulled the goalie in overtime to have a 4-3 man advantage and it payed off for the win I would expect the team to have the momentum which they will need. They are 6 points back of the Knights for the final wild card spot. They are 16-12-4 at home and in desperation mode.
After that move they pulled in the last game they have to be ready to make a push
Wild in regulation
Ontario: 1.83 Odds at 888 Sports.
Rest of Canada: 1.83 Odds at 888 Sports.
USA: -118 Odds at Bovada
Everyone Else: 1.83 Odds at 888 Sports.
(Odds correct as of 2024/03/12 10:45:06 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Ducks vs Blackhawks Betting Tips:
There isn’t any point in diving into this game. The Hawks have already been eliminated from the playoffs and the Ducks will be any day now.
Avalanche vs Flames Betting Tips:
Avalanche are 7-2-1 last 10 and on a 3 game win streak. On the road they have gone 14-14-5..
The Flames are 6-4 in last 10 and on 2 game skid. In Calgary they have gone 16-14-1. They are 8 points back of the wild card.
I would say the Avalanche should win this game but their road record isn’t that good and the 3 wins they have on this streak were all done in Colorado. We would have to take them in regulation so I’m passing.
Knights vs Kraken Betting Tips:
This is a big week for the Knights and how they do will go a long way towards any success they are to have. They are 3-6-1 over last 10 but did bring in some help at the deadline.
The Kraken are 6-3-1 in last 10 and are 8 points back of the Knights who are in 8th.
I want to take the Knights here but their road record doesn’t give me much confidence. I’ll wait and see how they do with the new players before I tip them.
I’m so bad at betting. 😅
Detroit ML @ 2.15 with 11 units
Philly in regulation seems like the biggest standout. But Chrona is coming off his best performance so can he carry that over? Probably not but still worth mentioning. One of the reasons I liked Philly here, The Sharks have scored 9 Power Play goals over their last 6 games. I expect this to regress. Even with that success, the Sharks only managed to win one of those 6 games. A drop in production there should take away some of the Sharks closer results and make this a comfortable win for Philly.
Prior to the thrashing by Tampa, where Philly gave up 3 Power Play Goals, the Flyers conceded just one Power Play goal against over the 5 previous games.
Philly should win the metrics especially when you consider the Fenwick in particular, as they do all the little things well. And the spot coming off the 7-0 loss should have them up for this game.
Sharks have had a pretty easy go of it as well recently with 8 of their last 10 being at home. So an even lower level of performance can be expected for them here on the road.
A concern with Philly is they have been conceding a lot of high danger goals lately. 19 High Danger Goals Against over their last 10 games is not good. However, most of these have been inflated due to 3 games in particular. The last one was their most recent 7-0 loss to Tampa that was essentially over before it started. And just continued to spiral from there. Philly has seemed to bounce back from each one of those poor performances and follow it up with a better one the next game. The drop in level of competition should aid them with that tonight.
Though the price climbed from the open when I should have taken Philly, getting them -190 in regulation still seems like a solid result.
Philadelphia regulation-190.
Other thoughts were
I wanted to take the under 6.5 at -115 in the Detroit/Buffalo game. But I couldn’t quite trust the goaltending from Detroit. Lyon’s last 5 games have not been good at all. Everything else kinda pointed to it for me though.
Florida/ DAllas Over 6 at -115. I leaned this because of the two offenses and the XGA for both teams has been high recently. However I don’t know how open or tight this game will be, and both teams could have their goalies raise their levels because of each other as well.
And Arizona/Minnesota Over 6 at -125 i thought about. I couldn’t quite trust Arizona to get the goals to contribute. And even Minnesota has been heavily relying on Kaprizov’s recent production. Both opted to go with the goaltenders in better recent form in my opinion. With Arizona starting Vejmelka and Minnesota taking Fleury that pretty much put me off this selection.
Philadelphia in regulation-190.