Written by Graeme on Saturday, March 13th, 2021
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Welcome to the usual busy Saturday in the NHL. 12 games on the board. Just the one matinee game with the Bruins hosting the Rangers at 1pm EST then we’ve got Jackets hosting the Stars at 5pm EST before the usual evening of hockey action.
Bit quieter tomorrow with just 6 games on the board which is nice.
A heads up that tomorrow the clocks go forward here and that may mess with the mailing list. If you don’t get an e-mail be sure to check the website.
It was shut out Friday yesterday with three games all being win by a shutout. The Wild shutout the Coyotes which was good in the expected victory and it was nice to see Talbot get the shut out. He was running cold so it was good that they showed him the respect and gave him the spot and he bounced back strong.
Knights vs Blues was game of the night and a great one. Avs put the pressure on the Kings although their inability to score is just mental. Highest SF/60 in the league but only 15th for GF/60. Third in xGF/60 too so I mean they’re getting the quality chances just unable to put them away.
Let’s get into Saturday.
Panthers vs Blackhawks:
Blackhawks coming in off a hard fought series with Tampa then alternating wins with the Stars.
These two teams met earlier in the season. Panthers won 5-2 in first game and 5-4 in OT in the second.,
I expect Blackhawks roll with Lankinen tonight. Hawks have been quite a surprise this season. End of the day though – I rate the Panthers a better team. Sportsbooks don’t have them too heavily favoured so the odds are good. They get the job done in regulation enough. I’m well aware of what the Hawks can do but happy to roll with Panthers In Regulation.
Canada: 1.91 Odds at Casumo
USA: 1.90 Odds at BetOnline..
Everyone Else: 1.91 Odds at Casumo
(Odds correct as of 2021/03/13 7:38:41 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Bruins vs Rangers:
Was nice to see the Bruins offense explode again on Thursday as they thumped the Rangers 4-0.
Panarin may be back today which would be a big boost for the Rangers. That’s a big question mark. Bruins in regulation is likely the right play at the odds but the lack of regulation wins they have had this past month (3) is off-putting. Still like that though. Kinkaid in net for Rangers. I’ll probably regret not tipping Bruins in reg.
Jackets vs Stars:
There are times where I can throw my hands up and say “no idea” and this is one of them. Over 5.5 is like 2.15 to 2.20 odds. I think that might be worth the gamble but not enough to advise it.
Sabres vs Penguins:
Pens did the business for us the other night. Not going to tempt fate twice here. In theory with the goals and the way that game went, Sabres come out up for this one and fighting for the win harder. Over 6 is tempting. Not enough for me though. Hutton confirmed in net for Sabres.
Flames vs Canadiens:
Flames deservedly got the win last time out. Bookies have it a coinflip. Flames haven’t won with any sort of consistency in awhile. Habs have been a solid bounce back team.
Price will be in net tonight. He has been solid lately with four games at .958% or higher. I’m tempted by the Habs here. May decide on it later and post in comments but right now just feels like more of a gamble than an analytical pick.
Flyers vs Capitals:
Flyers having a rough go of it at the moment. The story against the Caps was the turnovers. That sorta thing happens.Samsonov performed well in that last game. Another one I will think about over the day. Over 6 and Caps both seem appealing.
Leafs vs Jets:
After the way the two games have gone between the teams, it just feels like one of those random games where Leafs win like 5-1 or 6-1. No bet on this one.
Lightning vs Predators:
Based on overall quality and results, this is a Lightning -1.5 play. However the Tampa incoming form is concerning. We don’t have a ton of data but they haven’t proven to be a bounce back team this season.
With Saros out that makes it tempting of course. Plus Lightning/Preds results this season already.
This is another “might post it in the comments later” tip. Just need to sit on it a bit longer.
Devils vs Islanders:
I liked the Islanders the other night primarily due to having fans. Now this game is in New Jersey. Islanders without Anders Lee as well. A large part of it was their home form too.
If you’re looking for an “underdog of the day” it’s the Devils.
Blues vs Knights:
Goalie situation still weird. No bet.
Ducks vs Sharks:
Back to back head to head. No bet. Gut says Sharks are a good play and can roll with the momentum while the Ducks are just a disaster right now.
Canucks vs Oilers:
Oilers on their first road game since February 25th. They got back in form after being blasted by the Leafs. Three games against the Senators will do that for you.
The price is nice here on the Oilers. On the road they have been good at 8-3-0 while Canucks are 8-7-2 at home. Fatigue has proven to be an issue this season though so no bet. Oilers seem to be better with a practice too. I could see the Canucks taking this one just as easily as I could see Edmonton. No play.
So just the one play so far but potential plays in:
– Pens in reg/Over. Doubt I touch anything there but will see.
– Habs to win incl OT/SO.
– Over 6 in Flyers/Caps or Caps win.
– Tampa -1.5.
Will think about them, read more, study more and if I have anything hopefully post in comments by 5pm EST.
Rangers ML with 5 units
Devils ML with 5 units
I mentioned the other night Isles were due for ”one of those nights” where the energy is low and compete isn’t quite there against one of these bottom feeders specifically. Obviously didn’t realize fans were back so that kinda went out the window before they even hit the ice. But, today is a different story and fits more into what im looking for. At the the end of the day you need a team to take advantage, so if the Devils fail then it is what it is but i look at the Bruins and Caps games where they got 3/4 pts and say i’ll be damned if they can’t make it at least very close coming back home, and in the two games at the rock combined score is actually 3-2 NJ. So let’s try it again, Devils ML. Big props to Trotz if the Isles show up again.
Don’t have time for other write-ups, but Graeme pretty much covered all and i agree with most.
Pens -1.5
Tampa -1.5
Habs ML
Sharks reg
Flyers reg
GL
To WIN: Islanders, Tampa (moneyline), San Jose
Full game OVER 5.5: Florida/Chicago
Lean: Oilers to win
I agree a team on a hot streak gets due for a sporadic fail, but in the Islanders last 10 games, they faced either Buffalo or New Jersey 6 times, and Boston twice. That’s not depleting, it’s invigorating, even though TWO back-to-backs were involved. Islanders have won 9 of their last 10, and Jersey has won 2 of their last 10. I don’t see the cause/challenge tonight to stop the win accumulation for the Islanders, who just spent 5 games at home, rested as much as any team is. This time of year, gathering the points is important every night.
Oilers because their look-ahead is Calgary and Winnipeg, so they’ll want the points tonight. The back-to-back could be an issue, even through the Canucks are without Pettersson. Oilers have speed when they need it and could wipe out the Canucks tonight.
San Jose has the edge of being much more rested than Anaheim, and on a two-game win streak. A few major offensive stats and a 3/4 win rate in this series so far, go in support of San Jose.
I was going to go with Pens in reg but the line has moved to unbettable for me. The more I look at it I like the over in Flyers/Caps. Just seems like a game that will go off. But I’m distancing myself a bit from overs right now. No additional bets tonight.
Sabres can Take this one,
Habs Reg +130 in an absolute smash spot. Much better team, off a loss and off a terrible spot on Thursday night. Do people realize this team is a full third of a goal higher in goal differential at 5 on 5 than the next closest team in the league?
They roll here.
Caps ML +O6 ✅
Blues ML❌ +O5.5✅
Pens REG✅ +O5.5❌
Cats REG✅ +O6
Nucks ML✅
Sharks ML✅
Islanders REG✅
Habs ML❌