Written by Graeme on Friday, March 15th, 2024
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Thanks to Scott for taking care of the NHL tips last weekend while I was away.
I’ll be away next weekend too, and then we’re getting to that point in the season where tips will be few and far between. You just never know what team is going to show up etc.
Last week I was visiting Columbus, Ohio where I took in the Blue Jackets vs Oilers, and Blue Jackets vs Preds. Both were a blast, and the city is amazing. But if you visit there I would 100% recommend going to a Columbus Crew game. THAT was the highlight of the weekend.
We were sitting front row right beside the Jackets bench which was neat, and you see us on TV a bunch chugging beers in our Oilers jerseys. Was quite cool being there and noticing random things such as just how much Daniil Tarasov was into the game. This dude looked like he had wagered his entire salary on it, and was so into it.
Couple pics of the Oilers game:
And one from Jackets/Preds:
Seriously though – if you go there, be sure to go to a Columbus Crew game. It’s great seeing the fanbase for that – every game is life and death. Mental game with 12 minutes of injury time, one injury time winner chopped off, then another at the 90+10 mark for Columbus.
Let’s look at todays two games.
Jets vs Ducks:
We spent a lot of time together yesterday analyzing that Wild/Ducks game to see if it was worth taking Wild -1.5. It was very close but decided it was just too razor thin. They managed to get the 2-0 win, and are on a B2B against the Jets who lost to the Preds 4-2 on Wednesday.
So I guess this one will be similar – whether to take Jets -1.5 or not. It’s very low odds so needs to be overwhelming.
Corsi & Fenwick decent advantage Jets, SF% is nice. GF definitely leans that way. xG not so much unfortunately neither do the SCG stats.
Jets are extremely inconsistent right now but when they win in regulation they do seem to cover the puck line.
This is a gut play more than anything. There are concerns. The metrics are not as overwhelming as I like (the Wilds metrics were probably better yesterday). The odds are worse. The Jets like I said are inconsistent. They have the playoffs practically wrapped up and games like this can be trap games where they take their foot off the gas.
But I generally like the Jets to do the business here. Ducks also have a brutal PK% at the moment and the Jets are rocking 25% over their last 10.
Jets -1.5
Ontario: 1.75 Odds at Sports Interaction
Canada: 1.75 Odds at Sports Interaction
USA: -140 Odds at Intertops.
Everyone Else: 1.74 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2024/03/15 9:20:37 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Blackhawks vs Kings:
It says something about their strong start to the season that the Kings are still looking good for the playoffs. They still haven’t really rediscovered that form and lost a key one to the Blues.
Hawks come in off two confidence building wins.
I ain’t taking Kings -1.5 here. The metrics don’t go anywhere towards it anyway and it’s actually at the point where I think I’d be surprised if they win this game convincingly. It looks like a right battle to be honest. No bet.
Hi. Is there any possibility for Jets to be left out of the playoffs? If yes, then it is probably good idea to take them as they lost the last game and are at home where they need to push and prove themselves. They don’t want to lose two games in a row at home.
Moneypuck has them as 99.93% chance so yeah they are basically there.
Yeah while they are going to make the playoffs, in theory they still have reason to take this game somewhat serious.
Coming off losses in two of their last 3, the Jets should use this and the Columbus game as bully games. Especially as they try to gain confidence and chemistry with the new additions. A win tonight puts them in a three way tie for first, with more games in hand than Colorado and Dallas.
Ducks just played on the road yesterday. And are coming off 4 straight losses, all by margin. Ducks have been outscored 21-5 last 4 games.
According to NST, the Ducks last 16 straight games all had a xGF below 3. While their xGA was 3 or higher in 11 of those games.
I somewhat like that they are going with Brossoit here. As long as the team in front of him plays like they give a shit. He’s been in good form in the few opportunities he’s gotten and knows he won’t be getting many more or any at all come playoff time. Hellebuyck could easily look at this as just another game in a long season, and hasn’t been at his sharpest so may need a rest.
I don’t think Winnipeg is keen to lose at home and hear their coach and fans bitch about it. Doesn’t mean its impossible to happen, I just don’t think that’s their mindset going into this one. And if you’re considering laying a bet especially on the Puck Line, you at least want the team you backed to not mail it in. I’d be pretty shocked if Jets didn’t at least give effort which is all you can hope for.
LEAN: full game UNDER 6.0: Jets game
I’m probably off the Jets game, as Scheifele is “questionable” tonight with an illness. Seems to be some kind of bug going around everywhere. Vilardi was already out. By the stats, the Jets should win but situational factors almost always over-rule stats and with the Jets, as Graeme states, being so inconsistent these days, throwing in illness energy drains and mental sluggishness isn’t worth risking dimes on. It’s still tempting me though, as Anaheim has scored 2 or fewer goals in 8 of their last 10 games, and in their last 6 games straight. NOTE: Brossoit is in net for the Jets and he just shut out Seattle and is well rested. That could be something of a red flag; is the team roster sharing that bug Scheifele has and they’re intent on taking it easy tonight? Geeeeeeezzzzzzzzzzzzz…………what a guessing game.
I wonder about the O/U because Anaheim’s goals against is a major rollercoaster ride. I predict it gravitates to an Under, but the Over could erupt at any time. Maybe 3-1 or 8-1. Not touching the props in what could be a throw-away game for the Jets.
Just to update, according to DFO Scheifele was a full participant in morning skate, and is expected to play. They’ve also adjusted the projected lineup and penciled him in on the top line.
I did also notice Brossoit was confirmed a day ahead of time. So this could have been planned well in advance as an opportunity to give Hellebuyck rest in certain spots down the stretch.
I’ll be going with Winnipeg Toffoli to score at +170.
Toffoli hasn’t scored yet in his two games with Winnipeg. So keep that in mind he may still be adjusting. Ducks have allowed 8 Power Play goals against over their last 5 games. So he could contribute there.
Assuming Gibson today for the Ducks. Toffoli has a solid blend of both High and Mid Danger Goals.
Other options are extensive. Connor, Monahan, Scheifele and Ehlers. Ehlers is a guy I considered because of his Mid Danger numbers. 12 of his 19 goals have come from there on 62 shots. However, there is potential Ehlers gets poached via rebound or tip in by his linemates. He’s taken more than 2 shots in just one of his last 6 games. So he’ll either need to beat Gibson clean or have an uptick in shots on goal today to feel good about it. He definitely could get the uptick in shots based on the opponent.
Gibson doesn’t get beat much from the point. So if considering a defenseman I would really only go with Morrissey. I think +550 is solid as well. But he does have some long goalless stretches this year. And just 1 Power Play goal which surprises me a bit.
Pionk at +750 is a very low expectation possibility. And if you think Gibson is due to concede from long distance, I would only consider Dillion +1200. He does have 4 goals on 45 shots from inside the blue line.
If you don’t trust Toffoli, Connor may be your easiest choice. I did see a +130 which I think is solid but I wouldn’t go below that. He’s an active shooter so he should get the most opportunities. He has scored 7 goals the last 10 games and I always worry about regression. But just 2 goals his last 5 games on 15 shots is a fine range.
If looking at Ducks players, I wouldn’t go further than Vatrano +270 or Terry +310. Anything beyond those two is really a crapshoot.
I tried to see if I could take advantage of Soderblom starting for Chicago, and look for a Kings defensemen to potentially score from a certain area he’s had a little trouble with. They don’t really fit the criteria though. Spence doesn’t have a single goal on the season yet. He also doesn’t always get the minutes and has zero shots his last two games.
Roy has taken 41 shots from the area I was looking for. But has not scored any goals from there. So I don’t know if he’s the caliber of player that can get it done. The best price on Roy is +1100 if interested in making that an “ehhh why not” bet. Still if any Kings defender does actually score, it’ll probably be Doughty. I didn’t look at any of the forwards on the Kings or anybody on Chicago.
Winnipeg Toffoli to score +170 is my play. And I do think I’ll take the shots on Morrissey +550. And Kings Roy +1100. I am not expecting either one of those two to hit, but I do like the value in the rare case one of them does.
Thanks for the pics! I like it, S&G.
This one will be funny.
I take Anaheim ML @ 4.5 with 3 units