Written by Graeme on Wednesday, March 16th, 2016
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Hi guys,
Sorry about the delay in tips today. I’m away for March break with the family. Tomorrows will be posted later in the day too I expect however will be back to business Friday.
A quick note to the mailing list subscribers: our mailing list goes out automatically at a set time each day however sometimes the time change where it goes an hour forward or backward affects that. If you don’t have any tips in your mailbox a few hours before the game be sure to check our site.
It was a 2-1 night last night with Tampa letting us down.
The Panthers absolutely decimated the Canadiens with a 4-1 victory in Montreal. A great way to turn their slump around.
Wings/Flyers was a nice easy over with it being over 5 goals before the 2nd period was done with. Always nice to be able to relax at that point and just enjoy the hockey.
Alright let’s get to the March 16th, 2016 NHL Betting Tips so I can go back in the pool:
Sabres vs Canadiens Betting Tips:
Buffalo seem up for this game with Ryan O’Reilly back. Jack Eichel is playing well, and Buffalo will want to get a win here in a very winnable game.
Subban being out still is a big blow and the Habs don’t seem to be blending together to fight for him.
Sabres in Regulation
Canada: 2.20 Odds at 888 Sports.
USA: +115 Odds at BetOnline..
Everyone Else: 2.20 Odds at 888 Sports.
Blues vs Oilers Betting Tips:
After their loss to the Flames I’d expect a stronger St. Louis Blues team to show up against the Oilers tonight. It’s been a couple of years since the Oilers last beat the Blues. I’d like to take the over but the Oilers offense just isn’t producing on a consistent basis at the moment.
Blues in regulation
Canada: 2.21 Odds at Pinnacle Sports.
USA: +105 Odds at BetOnline..
Everyone Else: 2.21 Odds at Pinnacle Sports.
Avs vs Canucks Betting Tips:
I’ve been burned by the Canucks a few times already this season. However I generally like their home form – even when they lose it’s usually a battle. Avs on the road have had serious issues lately and we saw the Canucks 5-1 win over Colorado last month. While I expect a closer game tonight I like the Canucks here.
Canucks to win
Canada: 2.00 Odds at Sports Interaction.
USA: -102 Odds at BetOnline..
Everyone Else: 1.94 Odds at 888 Sports.
Value Bet: Blackhawks vs Flyers Betting Tips:
Blackhawks are of course the better team. They’re coming off that 5-0 loss at home against the Kings and you’d expect the Hawks to bounce back strong. They haven’t lost 3 in a row in regulation all season.
Honestly I think Chicago will win here – but the form of the Flyers at the moment has them believing anything is possible. The odds on this one are nice enough to bet and I feel I’d be kicking myself if I didn’t bet it. Up to you if you wish to go for it but I do feel there is value. On top of that the Flyers actually have dominated recent matchups between them. Going back to 2010 the Flyers have won 6 of 8 games.
Flyers to win
Canada: 2.75 Odds at Sports Interaction.
USA: +168 Odds at BetOnline..
Everyone Else: 2.65 Odds at 888 Sports.
Experimental Betting Systems:
(Our 1st period systems are based on 3 levels of confidence that the system has for each pick. Ideally all 3 systems will be winners long runs, with the high confidence system doing the best but with the least amount of picks etc)
1st Period System High Confidence: Montreal Canadiens (3.35), Vancouver Canucks (3.10)
1st Period System Medium Confidence: St Louis Blues (2.70)
1st Period System Low Confidence: Philadelphia Flyers (3.85)
Bet 1st Periods at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv or 888 Sports..
Americans: Bet 1st Periods at BetOnline. or Bovada.
Sabres/Habs – Over. Game could go either way but I like there to be goals!
Hawks in Reg. Philly is playing red hot right now, but the Hawks aren’t top cheese in the West for nothing.
Blues in Reg. Same situation as the Hawks. They took a night off in Calgary, but won’t let that happen both games in Alberta. The Oilers have had a really tough schedule lately!
Canucks/Avs – Under. This is going to be a tight game, but there is always the risk of Avs being down and Roy pulling the goalie with 10 min left! Soft bet.
Jets/Flames – Over. Both teams put up huge numbers in their last couple. I expect that trend to continue.
Rangers/Ducks – Under and probably OT. Two top dogs going head to head and I expect the Rangers to play a very structured game on the road.
I’m going with a soft bet on a crazy double with U+OT in both Flames-Jets and Ducks-Rangers, i mostly feel like you on the games today, i lean more towards Sabres then the over though.
Raanta in net for Rangers which could go both ways, Rangers usually play tighter with the backup in net and Raanta is really good when he’s on, he’s very up and down though, especially on the road. So some concern there but value is solid still imo.
…ugh
How do you feel about O 4.5 / O 5.5 in Flames-Jets?
Good easily see it being a high scoring game. can never fully count on both teams but Flames at home is usually good for a goal fest.
If I were to bet I would play over 4,5 easily.
Goal scorer predictions for today?
Galchenyuk
Eberle
McDavid
Duchene
Monahan
then again – yesterday I didn’t get one single scorer right 😀
Hehe! Lets hope they score today!
TONIGHT I LIKE
BLUES
BLACKHAWKS
DUCKS
🙂
tonight
BLUES
AVS
in regulation.
other thoughts:
Sabres win
Hawks OT
Flames win
Ducks OT
Tonight picks,
Canadiens win %100
Blackhawks win %100
Blues win %100
Optional Picks,
Rangers win %70
Flames win%70
Avalanche win %70
Good luck!!!
4/6 – not bad in the minefield that it was last night
It ll be even better night tonight ?
Where are you Lion King?
Slept early ? I was waiting 17th march topic till late times
But a lion never sleeps!
They do mate they do ?
I’ll take your 70% any day
? I picked them without any emotion
Habs, Blackhawks, Blues, Jets, Avalanche and Ducks.
Tarasenko, Duchene and Rakell to score.
When Scott and Graeme offer a pick and say: “It’s up to you,” like in the Phi – Chi game, do they include the results of those games in their NHL Betting Stats results?
No sir. Value bets we don’t list whether they win or lose. As generally with the tips we give we believe they will win. With ones like the flyers tonight not as confident but see enough value to bet on it.
Went 3-0 last night … whilst following your tips exactly. My bookmaker paid out on a Tampa Bay win.
Over 5 (over 4.5 is better live ) buff – Montreal , back Hawks reg , back Blues reg .
I can’t feel confidant today I see the games mostly can go either way… Very hard to predict today
Going to go more indepth on the games for a change 🙂 Been a while since i wrote a long post here. And you know sometimes it’s good to write down your thoughts as you go through the games.
MTL-BUF = Under 5 (3-way) @ 2.40
Woah, haven’t gone for an under bet in god knows how long. I don’t quite feel comfortable with the Sabres odds, although i probably should, but 1.70 ML isn’t the best in the world. I’ve been burned by betting on the team that gets their star player back thinking it’s an easy win before. However, my eyes instantly took notice on that U5 value. Habs want to tighten up a bit and win a game for a change and the Sabres might have troubles clicking right away now that O’Reilly is back. These teams had their high-scoring affairs earlier in the season and the last one was already at 5 goals, so im thinking this one will be the lowest scoring. Red flag here is both of these clubs have hit the 5 goal mark pretty much non-stop lately (hence the high odds), but the Habs have scored 2 goals in the last 2 games and the Sabres haven’t hit more than 2 goals in regular time in 3 games. It’ll probably be close and if it goes over then so be it, but this is one i feel like is worth the risk.
PHI-CHI = Flyers ML @ 2.65
Now let me start off by saying i was going to go for OT initially as the odds of 4 are fantastic (Nordicbet always have crazy good OT values), but S&G’s value pick really made me think about this one. This is one of those games you rarely see in the NHL. Excellent form vs struggling team that crushes the hot team on paper. I absolutely love that Hawks lineup and can’t help but to smile when i look at it. I mean, how Weise is just a 4th line dump in Chicago makes me laugh. But on a serious note, it wasn’t exactly hard to see the Hawks going on a bit of slump. Many new (or old i guess in Ladd) guys joining the team and the whole team for sure knows how good their roster is right now. Winning is never easy though, especially when you know you should be able to do something and your opponent just doesn’t let you do it. For the Hawks it’s a very good thing they have to go through some adversity, and when this team is working their asses off for the win that’s scary. Form is just as important as roster is though and the Flyers are pretty much red hot. They’re this years Senators for sure. Flyers win here makes a ton of sense. Not only because the Hawks morale is questionable, Neuvirth vs Darling favors the Flyers and they have confidence vs the Hawks in form of a great record. Concern for me is there could be some funky stuff happening in the 3rd period, like let’s say the Flyers have a 2 goal lead and the Hawks decide enough is enough and tie it up – they could easily carry the momentum for the game winner as well much like the Isles did 2 nights ago vs Florida. But in the end it’s rare to feel so good about these kind odds, im not sure how the Flyers are rated so low here to be honest.
STL-EDM = None
I have a very strong feeling the Oilers will play a great game today, they played well for a small stretch and now that they’ve dropped 2 in a row i think they will bring up the “team spirit” discussions in the locker room again lol. And im not convinced the Blues would show up 100%. But i just can’t make myself go for the Oilers as the Blues always dominate them (won 8 past meetings, 13-1 over the past 14). It’s just not smart to bet on this one, as the Blues odds are terrible and despite 2.35 ML odds for the Oilers – that’s still not enough for me to back them. McDavid is due to work his magic on the Blues though. It’s just a matter of time. Also can’t find value in goal bets, since the Oilers, despite their bad defense, tend to have a lot of low scoring games when they play well, but could always just go on the losing mode and let up 5 goals.
COL-VAN = Avalanche ML @ 1.90
I find it hard to see the Avs lose this game. Now it could be different if they didn’t lose the last game, but at this point in the season they have to respond quickly to any loss they get. They’re clearly better team on paper and want to dig deep to win this one. Not much else to it really. All my years in this betting business this type of games are always the best ones. Better team wants the win more and is ready to work for it ? Just common sense. Pays out 80% of the time, especially when they’re not in a slump. Unless the Nucks get some lucky bounces, the Avs should get this done.
WPG-CGY = Over 5.5 @ 1.98
This one should be wide open game you’d think. Two teams playing well recently, neither team has to worry about playoffs – just go out and have fun. Now this could always lead to lack of killer instinct in scoring chances. But Pavelec vs Ortio in a wide-open game ? Lol, going with over 5.5. If i had to pick a winner i’d go with the Flames, and their odds in ML aren’t shabby at all.
NYR-ANA = Over 5 @ 1.73
We have a very nice game to end the night. Rangers are the better team as the Ducks are without Vatanen and Bieksa, but Raanta is in net for NYR. I think it’s a very even matchup where both teams really want to this win and i like there to be goals. Should at least cover the push. In a very evenly matchup like this i’d favor the team with better goaltending, but the Ducks don’t have enough value and while admittely the Rangers odds are pretty ridicilous considering how they’ve won the past 3 meetings, i don’t trust Raanta enough in this one. And if they win, i doubt Raanta shuts the Ducks out so that would mean a good amount of goals.
Phew, there you have it. Good luck guys !
Thanks 🙂
Nps 🙂
Thanks 4 taking your time sharing! Cheers mate! 🙂
Some great picks there Arto ??keep them coming buddy! Finally started winning some on Nhl coz of u heheh ?
Yeah thanks 🙂 damn jets-flames, 3 goal in the first period and then it became a snoozefest, hate that
Always enjoying to read your analyses! They help me a lot, when I think about my picks.
Appreciate your work – Keep going!
good call on Flyers and Oilers and Avs. should have been good for a positive night right?
Yeah and under 5 on the sabres canadiens game, as that was a 3-way bet. So only regular time counted. Ducks game bet wasn’t a good one i admit, but wanted to throw something on it to make it more interesting to watch ?