Written by Graeme on Saturday, March 16th, 2024
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A nice and easy 1-0 last night, as the Winnipeg Jets duly delivered. Nice to see Brossoit get the shutout as well.
It was also good to see the Kings get a resounding victory in what I thought was going to be a tricky spot, and I hope they can build on it. They made us a lot of money early in the season
It’s Saturday. A lotta games as per usual so lets get to it shall we? You’ll definitely see less picks from now until the end of the season from us due to the regular season mostly being wrapped up.
Red Wings vs Sabres:
Red Wings are the perfect example of where the playoff picture makes things so difficult. They SHOULD be winning to cement their place in the playoffs, but instead they have dropped to less than 30% chance due to this losing streak.
This in theory should be a good spot for them but they did just lost against Buffalo 4 days ago. Sabres coming in off the back of some solid results too.
Gut says that the Red Wings end their run here. But at 2.05 odds, not enough to back it.
Islanders vs Senators:
Islanders still in the hunt. Unfortunately, two horrific losses have really hurt their chances.
Sens have been a tough little team the last few games. The metrics of course go towards the Islanders but that is based on their run prior to the last two games.
Ottawa certainly concern me here. The Islanders are 15-8-9 at home which isn’t overwhelming at all.
The Islanders also have the 2nd most ovetimes this season at 22 games, which is a big factor if we’re looking to take them in regulation.
And if we’re considering that, we have to factor in empty net stats as well. Sens concede 9/28 empty nets and scored 4, but the Islanders have one of the worst empty net ratios with just 1 goal in 23, and 6 allowed. Varlamov also in net who other than that Ducks game – and I mean its the Ducks – has been a mess.
But it’s frustrating as despite all that, I still want to bet the Islanders. And I likely will. But I just can’t back them here. I’ve basically listed 10 huge red flags as to not bet them. I just can’t advise it.
Penguins vs Rangers:
Nothing here.
Coyotes vs Devils:
Devils are still in with a chance at the playoffs but they are making a mess of it. They have just been too inconsistent to back. I don’t like them in regulation here either which is what it would have to be. Metrics leans towards the Devils but it is tight. Based on the GA/xG stats I could see the over here, but it’ll be tight.
Panthers vs Lightning:
A big rivalry game between two teams who are pretty much in the playoffs. The Panthers are, and the Lightning are at 93.5%.
I’d not touch a side in this but I am interested in the over. Unfortunately, the metrics don’t really support it as much. They do push more towards a Tampa win but Panthers goaltending is solid. Gotta be a revenge game for Tampa.
The data doesn’t really suggest it, and past history is a mix but my gut says this goes over and I’m going to back that. Tampa offense is ticking, Panthers just got blanked out and they have had a couple of odd offense games but should be up for this.
Like I said – more a gut play than anything else. I can justify it enough, but it’s not one where the metrics are like “yep this is an easy play”.
Over 6 incl OT/SO
Ontario: 1.83 Odds at Sports Interaction
Canada: 1.85 Odds at BetOnline.
USA: -118 Odds at BetOnline.
Everyone Else: 1.85 Odds at BetOnline.
(Odds correct as of 2024/03/16 10:42:00 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Leafs vs Hurricanes:
Leafs coming home with a couple of wins. Playing a hard Canes team. Looks very tight. Pass.
Flames vs Canadiens:
Calgary finally ended their losing run with a solid win over the Knights and will look to build on that. Unfortunately, their playoff hopes are very, very slim at 3.7%. Montreal coming off a nice little win over the Jackets, and then pushed the Bruins all the way. They have had quite a few solid results lately.
I would have to take the Flames in regulation but their goaltending can be a concern. Habs at least aren’t that great offensively.
The concern of course with Calgary is their injuries. They had six rookies against the Knights. Wolf looked pretty clutch though.
It’s a bit of a gut one but I am going to go with Flames in Regulation. I just think they will be energetic and pull the confidence from that game.
Ontario: 2.05 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Canada: 2.05 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
USA: +100 Odds at Bovada
Everyone Else: 2.05 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2024/03/16 10:42:00 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Bruins vs Flyers:
Eh. Don’t love either team right now. I mean slight lean on BRuins especially at home but not enough to back them in regulation at all.
Jackets vs Sharks:
Nothing here.Goaltending for Sharks and defenses overall could make this a high scoring game. Jackets I think should pip them but I ain’t confident enough in them at regulation.
Stars vs Kings:
Happy to pass with the Kings just playing.
Blues vs Wild:
Tough one actually. I’m close to a Wild play at the odds. Blues with the two surprise wins, Wild metrics wise look solid enough. Minnesota also in the playoff hunt.
Eh. This is one of those plays I am fine to make during playoff time as I don’t feel it’s on me at all. Here’s the deal: if Minnesota are going to make the playoffs, they absolutely freaking NEED to win games like this. If they do it then great – if not, then that’s on them.
Metric wise better across the board. Just a pity Wild are so brutal at converting high danger chances as Blues let a lot in.
Wild Incl OT/SO
Ontario: 1.80 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Canada: 1.80 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
USA: -126 Odds at BetOnline.
Everyone Else: 1.80 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2024/03/16 10:42:00 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Oilers vs Avs:
Nothing here. Tough game slight edge to Avs just with the current SCGF%.
Kraken vs Predators:
What a run the Preds are on. The metrics are solidly in their favour here too and the odds are good. Just not feeling it.
Canucks vs Capitals:
Not enouch confidence in Vancouver right now.
I take New York Rangers ML* @ 1.87 with 16 units
Units now: +15.67 🥳
I take Caroline ML @ 1.73 with 1 unit
Florida vs Tampa over 1.5 1st period @ 1.75 with 1 unit
Florida vs Tampa, Florida wins 3rd period @ 2.6 with 1 unit
Vancouver vs Washington over 1.5 first period @ 1.8 with 1 unit
Hi Graeme! Thank you for today’s post and all the effort you put into this site, much appreciated. Is it harder to find betting spots during playoffs compared to regular season? What is your opinion and experience? Which games have proven to be more profitable throughout the years: regular season or playoffs? If you have made such statistics at all. Greetings from Estonia.
You are welcome and thanks for taking the time to comment that. It’s much appreciated.
It’s really tough to say. When I look back at past years there is such variance on a month by month basis. I personally prefer the period from November through February. Lots of data, all the motivation is generally there etc. But you pick a random month like December and the last three years were winning ones, but 2018, 2019 and 2016 were losing months.
I personally kinda hate this time of year as I mean look how much of my plays tonight or even non-plays but thoughts/leans were based on gut.
The playoffs are a weird one. We’ve had winning playoffs – often substantially – for every season but 2015/2016 which was -1.27u. So that’s awesome. But it’s a lot less data and can be a lot tricker. It requires full watching of all games, really getting into each teams heads etc.
So I mean based purely on our stats, playoff betting does seem the most profitable. You can see a messy breakdown on here: https://www.betnhl.ca/nhl-betting-record-stats
Personally I prefer playoff betting because it’s a lot less long-term season data. It’s more based on the last game, or last couple of games and it’s a LOT easier to write.