Written by Graeme on Friday, March 17th, 2023
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First – apologies if you are on the mailing list and receiving e-mails late. We’ve had a huge influx of new subscribers lately, and it’s causing a bit of havoc with the e-mails.
It’s fixable but it takes a few hours of work and I just haven’t been able to find the time. Hopefully get to that soon.
Speaking of time, I’m looking forward to the NHL playoffs. I just find tips are soooo much easier then. It’s less about the metrics and the data and is so much more relaxed. Sit back, watch the games, then just write betting tips based on that. Always nice.
A 1-0 win last night with the Kings getting the job done.
Panthers one was really funny as I was leaning them -1.5 so hard yesterday, but I was concerned about their defensive metrics. Imagine being told “Yeah you can take the Panthers -1.5 but they’re going to concede 5 goals”. No thanks.
Skinner showed he is still the difference maker for the Oilers.
Thankfully avoided anything related to the Preds. What a team they are.
Let’s look at Fridays short slate.
Flyers vs Sabres:
Flyers come in on a bad run. Buffalo come in a bit mixed. Got that big Leafs comeback, then blew the spot against the Capitals. Their defensive metrics continue to be atrocious. Flyers should be scoring more based on their xGF – heck it’s at 3.1 – but instead turning in 1.89 over the last 10 with an SCGF/60 of 1.59.
You’d think Philly might come alive against this mess of a Sabres defense. Problem is they have faced a couple of teams with poor defensive metrics and not been able to make anything of it.
I don’t see a bet here.
Leafs vs Hurricanes:
Leafs stuttering a bit. Canes bounced back from a couple losses to beat the Jets. Canes without Svechnikov is tough although that didn’t matter against the Jets. Leafs a different amimal. This one is just too close to call.
Capitals vs Blues:
Capitals still playing poorly. Looking to do the damage to the Blues, who have had some really fun games lately. Looking at the goals scored, the over would seem on the cards.
Both teams have poor xGA and SCGA. The concern is on offence when we look beyond goals scored. Capitals are strong, but the Blues not so much. Offense is scoring way more than they should.
It’s a bit similar to that Caps/Sabres game. Of course Sabres got the goals rolling there. I’m 50/50 on whether the Blues offense get going or not. I’m going to personally go with Capitals over 3.5 team goals but I don’t hate the over either.
Ontario: 1.83 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Canada: 1.87 Odds at BetOnline.
USA: -115 Odds at BetOnline.
Everyone Else: 1.87 Odds at BetOnline.
(Odds correct as of 2023/03/17 10:30:13 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Ducks vs Jackets:
Ducks slight favourites. Metrics would probably disagree slightly. But I just don’t feel up to backing the Jackets on the road.
To WIN moneyline: Buffalo
Lean: to WIN puckline: Buffalo
Full game OVER 5.5: Buffalo game
Full game trying to lose: Columbus
Buffalo should consider itself a legitimate part of the playoff race, and their look-ahead games have some challenging matchups, so this game tonight should be top priority for gathering 2 points. They’re rested. They can certainly score and are a fast team. No back-to-backs in the recent picture, this looks good. The puckline is tempting.
In their last 10 games, the Flyers have scored 2 or fewer goals 7 times. Their recent powerplay is running at 4.5% (they’ve scored ONE powerplay goal in their last 10 games!) and they take far more penalties than Buffalo, polar opposites in the league, actually.
Anaheim might win tonight simply by taking 1 shot on net. Columbus defense may create a line in front of the net for Anaheim players to take a clear shot from. If Connor Bedard would state in the media, “Columbus sucks!”, then Columbus might start trying again. Kind of a ludicrous season for the bottom handful of teams in the league, and 2023 being one of the most promising entry drafts in years.
Just to note some goalie confirmations, St. Louis will be going with Joel Hofer in his season debut. 22 year old from Springfield Thunderbirds of the AHL. He’s got two career NHL games going 1-1-0 with a 3.07 GAA and .880 SV %.
And Columbus starting Hutchinson vs Anaheim’s Dostal
Columbus Jack Roslovic +300
This is a last second switch for me as I was prepared to go with Anaheim’s Trevor Zegras at +160. It was between him and Terry who’s at +140. I wanted to take a Duck originally because I wanted to go against Hutchinson in net for CBJ. But seeing Roslovic at +300 vs Dostal, could present even more value. Dostal’s played 4 games from February 15th to March 8th. 1-2-1 record 18 goals against (4.5 GAA) .878 SV %. Roslovic has had a poor year. He won’t be able to match last years 22 goals. But he’s sitting at 7 goals on 7 percent shooting through 64 games this season, which are some of his lowest numbers. He’s reached double digit goals in his last three seasons and he should care about trying to get to that number at least. Small sample sizes on his career stats and he’s not a volume shooter. However the two years he did reach +100 shots his shooting percentages were 10.3 and 16.8 for those seasons. Bottom line is I’m not confident in the pick but I love the value, vs a team like the Ducks with a goaltender that’s struggling.
Laine and Jenner have been the hottest two over the last five games for either team. Both of them are going at plus money still as well. Zegras and Terry both at plus money for a team without many more scoring options in the Ducks. But the high variance of this game I’ll take a shot on the bigger value with someone who’s just as capable to net one.
Columbus Jack Roslovic +300