Written by Graeme on Sunday, March 17th, 2024
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A 2-1 day yesterday.
The Lightning/Panthers game went over pretty easy. It was nice not having to sweat that one.
Flames also got the nice convincing win over the Habs.
Loser was the Wild to win and meh. Like I said – that’s on them. They want to be a playoff team they have to win games like that. I’m a bit frustrated on that one and having made that bet, but it was at least a good lesson to learn in regard to the Wild and that they quite simply, don’t have what it takes.
It’s Sunday which usually involves a ton of teams on back to backs and no bets. Let’s see if anything:
Rangers vs Islanders:
Rangers coming off the nice Penguins win yesterday. Islanders lost to the Sens as their bad run continues.
I was hoping this one metric wise might be overwhelming for the Rangers unfortunately it really isn’t. Lower GF/60, bad xGA/60 etc. No play.
Knights vs Devils:
The Knights return home hoping to bounce back after that Flames loss. The Devils lost to the Coyotes yesterday. Not seeing anything worth backing here. The over is in with a shout but the Devils SCGF/60 makes it tough to back that. Lean on that though due to the Knights defensive and goaltending metrics.
Senators vs Hurricanes:
Nothing for this one.
Penguins vs Red Wings:
And nothing worth backing or looking at in this one.
Blackhawks vs Sharks:
I mean I don’t hate the Hawks here but at 1.60 odds? C’mon. I can’t back them in regulation. Especially when they’ve had 3 great offensive games and then the rest are terrible.
Blue Jackets vs Jets:
Was hoping to back the Jets in this one but their inconsistency, and having to take them at -1.5 due to the odds makes it a no play.
Blues vs Ducks:
Would like to think the Blues ride their big shootout win tonight. By the metrics, definitely the edge to the Blues but it is very tight. Throw in the back to back against a fresh team and the odds, and unfortunately another no play.
New York Islanders ML @ 2.45 with 2 units
NJ Devils ML @ 2.55 with 1 unit
Now with 3 units @ 2.55. 😀
Oh no fuck it.
Okay I take St Louis regular @ 1.77 with 11 units
DISCLAIMER:
Don’t bet with real money on my opinions.
I’m a stupid better, who wastes tons of units to gain minimal profits.
Zip. I don’t like these matchups for sides, O/U or therefore props.
😲
Yeah just looking at the games my early leans were NJ/Vegas Over 6.5 and Detroit/Pittsburgh Over 6.5 as well. I haven’t really had the time to look into them though. Haven’t played either and still not sure.
This week was the first week of NWSL. I’m a die hard fan and season ticket holder. So went to the Gotham game Friday night, and most my attention went to gambling on NWSL and watching the Saturday games. I wanted to see how each team looked with roster changes and two more expansion teams in the league. The sports books are still behind on them, in my opinion, so you can take advantage of some bogus lines that they post. Especially in the first week based on some of their projections I’m just not in line with. Most weekends will probably find me more invested in that now. Especially with how many games are on the Saturday slate for NHL. It’ll be too difficult to dedicate my time to both.
While I bet on pretty much every sport, props to you guys and Vin for being able to do daily write ups on all the sports and events you guys do.
I’m closer to the Devils/Vegas Over then the Detroit one. But I might just be higher on New Jersey offense than I should be. I took a team total on Devils yesterday that didn’t deliver. The Devils may be able to contribute some offense today with Logan Thompson in net for Vegas. Though I would have preferred Kahkonen to start this game and not the Arizona game.
I’ll try and look for a prop or two. Was able to hit on the two Islanders I played yesterday. But was somewhat fortunate. Took Horvat to score and Dobson to get a Power Play point. Both hit on the same goal,though it basically didn’t cash until 40 seconds left in the game.
If I do post anything, it’ll probably be just a quick post without a write up behind it.
Are you female? 😀
NJ offense is a joke for over imo.
I’ve read your plays for awhile now. I can assure you, your opinions aren’t highly sought after by many.
That is not a problem. But I hope you have understood what I have tried to tell you before, namely about permanence and betting behavior.. 😂
huh?
you mean lose a unit…bet 4. Lose 4 units bet 12. Lose 12 bet 30. Lose 30 bet 90?
It’s more like 1 2 4 8 16 32 64 128 256 512 1024, but it depends by odd.
But that’s just the money management. Why not track your bettings and look for the good spots?
Dear lord please don’t tell me you are attempting to martingale.
Anyone reading please note: martingaling sports betting or any form of gambling is like one of the dumbest things you can do and you should never, ever consider it. There are like a billion articles and analyses on the web to support this.
Then I say this is lobbyism.
I don’t mean to motivate anybody to bet life savings, but you can limiit your play money and divide it properly to play like this and of course you can lose all in the end.
not you “CAN” lose all in the end you “FUCKING WILL”
also you are motivating people to bet life savings, because eventually that’s what it turns into…and that’s just to hopefully break even
Well, if you think I shouldn’t post this stuff, just tell me. I will stop.
I love to encourage comments but here is my suggestion – if you want to post what you are betting that is fine, but provide reasoning for it.
Then you may get positive or negative critique which can help you in your bets.
Like you backed the Islanders. I’m not sure your reasoning for it but if you posted why, there may be something glaring that stood out where someone could be like “Hey this is why you shouldn’t bet this”.
Or it can be simple things like on Friday WesternRattlers posted he was leaning the under on the JEts game with a part of that being Scheifele questionable. But DeNapos posted to update that he was likely to play.
Basically posting your reasonings for bets will help you to become a better sports better. Plus typing it out helps you think more about reasoning for bets.
I can understand what you mean. Thank you.
But to look at the other side. It’s rare that someone comes along and tells you where you might be wrong, especially if you argue in a different frame of mind.
“Are you female? 😀
NJ offense is a joke for over imo.”
BTW here is an example of it – you say they are a joke for over, but don’t explain why. I’d like to hear why you think that.
I just had a look myself and across the board, the Devils are a top 10 offense over the last 10 games. Knights are in the bottom half and have the 2nd worst GA/60 over the last 10.
The Devils aren’t converting their chances as well as they should be at the moment, but based on the data I can see why one would back the Devils to be scoring goals in that game. I haven’t did a deep dive analysis but calling them a “joke” doesn’t seem accurate.
Well, yesterday you told about gut feeling. Mostly that’s why. Then I looked into stats, sloppy shit:
3 goals
4
2
1
6
1
Oh wow 6 was an outlier.
After reading today’s interesting, and to sport betting, quite fundamental running commentary, I asked myself why I am avoiding the St. Louis game. I could just say “no way”, or explain myself. So I looked at the data again.
St. Louis is on a back-to-back, but are at home and otherwise well rested, having returned from a road trip two games ago and having tomorrow off. They are currently reporting no players out with injuries.
Anaheimlik is playing that very exhausting 3rd game in 4 days, having had one day off after a back-to-back against tough teams and on the road. They are not a typical bounce-back team, and their scoring is way down.
At this time of year, stats mean less and less, while player motivation levels and situational factors are critical game to game. With a WIN, St. Louis will be just 2 points behind the last Wild Card spot. Anaheim has lost five games in a row and with a win today, they would get their own booth in Ripley’s Believe It Or Not, beside the stuffed Egyptian mummy playing the ragtime piano.
Just about everything points to a St. Louis win, and by Anaheim results, a puckline win. What’s the problem? St. Louis’ own scoring drought shows up too often. In their last 10 games, St. Louis has scored 2 or fewer goals 6 times. They also had 3 goals three times, and one 5-goal game. In their defense, the last 10 games for St. Louis have been far more challenging than what Anaheim offers. Anaheim lets in goals like it’s a puck refurbishing company. So, is the “situation” lining up for a wipeout, a 7-2 St. Louis win? I will probably go for a bet, but will minimize the risk. It’s the “no injuries” for St. Louis idea that I see as something of a green light on this game.
it’s a “Lean” I guess.