Written by Graeme on Sunday, March 19th, 2023
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Hi guys,
A 2-0 night last night.
The Bruins/Wild game duly delivered with the over. The Wild continued to have defensive issues, and the Bruins picked them apart in a 5-2 victory for an easy over.
The Canucks vs Kings was also an easy under, ending at just 4 goals at the end of regulation. Welcome to why that was dependent on Demko, who saved 38 shots. Kings had a 3.39 xG there. Canucks meanwhile barely troubled Korpisalo. Pretty pitiful that the Kings lost that one, and glad I didn’t take regulation.
Our mailing list continues to have issues. I’ll hopefully work on it this week. Tips are posted by 12pm EST like 99% of the time, so if you haven’t got the e-mail by then, come visit!
Usual sort of Sunday slate. Personally, more pumped for the F1 today. Love this track, and it’s a real intriguing race thanks to Max crapping out yesterday. Weird how a simple break from routine throws me off. Usually I get all my e-mails etc dealt with, then dive right into the NHL Tips. Instead spent an hour on F1 bets, and now I just feel completely thrown for a loop. Like forgetting what bookmarks I open etc. Really weird that.
Quick tl;dr- no tips today. Bruins in reg is my only real lean.
Sabres vs Bruins:
Buffalo coming in off that Philly loss. Bruins just beat the Wild yesterday and have put in two back to back impressive performances. Buffalo have been a bit of a feisty team lately. These two played earlier this month and Buffalo were just owned by the Bruins.
I dunno. It feels like there is enough to back Bruins in reg, but I have my concerns. Bruins relying on goaltending a bit right now. Sabres are very leaky, but they still have a slim chance of the playoffs and so have a lot to play for. Bruins I mean you couldn’t blame them if they phoned it on on an early Sunday game on a B2B. Bruins in reg still feels like the play, but just not enough for me to back.
Wild vs Capitals:
Ew gross. I’m going right off the Capitals to be honest, and don’t think I am going to bet anything involving them for the rest of the season. A quick glance at the metrics and eh – with the Capitals SCGF/60, they are a real wild card and are just as likely to score 0 goals as they are 4 it seems. No bet.
Knights vs Jackets:
Would have to be Knights -1.5 and the numbers don’t back that up enough. It’s heavily reliant on the Jackets goaltending.
Rangers vs Preds:
Rangers come in on the back of some better results. Nothing is really jumping out at me. I definitely lean the Rangers here but not enough to back them in regulation.
Lightning vs Devils:
This is a really close one, and not seeing anything.
Blues vs Jets:
The over is slightly tempting with the defensive metrics, but I worry about the offenses delivering.
Ducks vs Canucks:
The over was one play I was hoping to back today assuming Demko doesn’t play, but unfortunately the value isn’t there. It’s about 1.76 odds and dropping. You have two teams with below 3 SCGF/60, and even the Ducks SCGA/60 is only 2.59. Neither team big on the xGF. Oh yes this is an easy pass.
Winnipeg Kyle Connor to score +125
Could also try taking him to score first at +1000.
Vancouver Quinn Hughes to score +450
LEAN: Vegas to WIN, but not sure how to bet it, the odds lead me to the puckline option, but not sure about that. The puckline could easily happen: Columbus one day rest after a back-to-back and Vegas well rested at home, this could go 7-2 for Vegas. Top three teams in the Pacific are quite close now and with the Oilers on a heater recently, Vegas will want these two points as part of the season going forward. Columbus was just pummeled by LA and Anaheim, so Vegas to beat Columbus at home in these conditions? PUCKLINE.
No bets otherwise, the # of back-to-backs have me off these games. Can’t take the UNDER in Minnesota with how Washington is conceding goals and the Wild can score high. The OVER with Vancouver is very iffy with the # of Under results those two teams have been experiencing.
You of course bet the 7-2 exact score for the Vegas game that you called right?
Those that are goaltender dependent, you’re getting Tarasov vs Jiri Petera in that Columbus/Vegas game. Tarasov’s two games in March, 9 goals against and .847 Save Percentage. This will be Jiri Petera’s second career NHL game. His first was a March 12th win vs St. Louis, giving up 3 goals on 33 shots.
Eichel could have a decent chance to score vs CBJ at +105