Written by Scott on Wednesday, March 20th, 2024
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13 games yesterday we had 1 tip and it was a win.
Had the Wild to win in regulation against the Ducks and they did 4-0. They have now picked up a point in 8 straight games and are 3 points back of the wild card.
The Flyers beat the Leafs to give themselves a little breathing room in the Metro. The Wings kept their playoff hopes alive when they beat the Jackets 4-3 in overtime to move back into 8th. The Preds pounded the Sharks 8-2 to extend their point streak to 15 games.
The Avalanche beat the Blues 4-3 and the Jets beat the Rangers 4-2 to remain tied for 1st in the Central. The Canucks beat the Sabres 3-2 to move into top spot in the West.
Only 3 today and as Graeme had mentioned a few days ago there is going to be less tips as the season comes to a finish.
Leafs vs Capitals Betting Tips:
Leafs played yesterday and lost to the Flyers. They are still in 3rd in the Atlantic but with the Lightning winning its only a 5 point lead now.
The Caps are coming off of that win against the Flames and find themselves 1 point behind the Wings who are in 8th. They have won 3 in a row.
The Leafs just played and the Caps are fighting to get in so I could see this being a good game. I’m passing.
Coyotes vs Stars Betting Tips:
Both teams haven’t played since Saturday.
The Coyotes are 18 points back of the wild card spots. They’re ranked 22nd in GPG and 23rd in GAPG. On the road they have gone a lousy 11-19-5
The Stars are fighting for 1st in the Central where they are currently in 3rd but only 2 points back of 1st. They’re 6-3-1 in last 10, 2nd in GPG, 16th in GAPG and 20-10-4 at home.
Would need to take the Stars -1.5. Looking at the stats the Stars have the advantage in most but it’s the GF/60 that has me put off of that play as the Stars are 3.44 and the Coyotes 3.30 in that category which shows that it could be a close game.
Wild vs Kings Betting Tips:
The Wild played yesterday and won. They are 6-2-2 in last 10 and are in 9th place 3 points back.
The Kings are fighting for a playoff spot. They have gone 6-3-1 in last 10 and when at home they have gone 15-11-7.
With both teams playing yesterday I’m fine to skip this game.
DISCLAIMER:
Don’t bet with real money on my opinions.
I’m a stupid better, who wastes tons of units to gain minimal profits.
Today I feel like writing something.
First we have the goalies Fleury vs Rittich here.
Fleury:
W-L-OTL:16-11-4
GAA:2.67
SV%:0.905
SO:2
Rittich:
W-L-OTL:10-5-3
GAA:2.29
SV%:0.916
SO:2
That’s the first good argument for LA.
Second LA won last season away 7:6, won home 1:0, then again away lost 1:2.
This season they won away 7:3. This is outstanding and also a big + for me and LA.
Third argument, I have my 66%, 33% situation where LA is 66% likey to win this game. But I have to add, that there is a really good chance for OT today, because the last 8 h2h games between them finished in regulation. The overall chances for OT in my system started burning, because it’s time for OT to come.
But there is also a good argument for Minnesota. They showed a better performance in recent games.
But I will ignore this fact and hope Rittich is my Joker here.
Some details about the last game, where LA won 7:3 away. It was on 19 October, a lot of time has passed since then. LA had Talbot in net with 29/32 shots blocked. Minnesota had Fleury in net with 20/25 shots saved.
When I compare stats of Rittich and Talbot they are not far away from each other, but Rittich has a GAA of 2.29 while Talbot has 2.42 this season.
The last time Rittich played against Minnesota was at home with Nashville on 24. April 2022, where he lost in OT with 42/47 shots saved. In this season he also played away against Minnesota on 13. March 2022 and won with 26/28 shots saved.
As you can see I hope Rittich makes the game today.
I take LA Kings ML* @ 1.61 with 19 units
Have fun 🥰
Congrats on tipping Kings tonight. Keep it up.
Dallas to win in regulation -165
High xGF and actual Goals for over last 8 games for Dallas. They’ve also kept the xGA below 3 last 9 straight games.
Special teams could also play a factor with Arizona allowing 12 Power Play Goals Against over its last 10 games.
Arizona has been able to put up some goals recently, and on the road. They’ve scored 4 goals in 4 of their last 5 games. And had two solid road games earlier where they put up 5 each on Ottawa and Washington. Arizona’s xGF has also backed up the offensive production.
Oettinger hasn’t been his sharpest for Dallas, not just recently, but most of this year as well. He hasn’t been good in three of his last four, which includes giving up 6 goals to the Sharks. He’s had about a week off to try and recent and Dallas will need to get him right for the playoffs. So I am expecting a bounce back.
I don’t know if Bjugstad will play for Arizona tonight. It won’t change my opinion on the actual play, but could take away from Arizona’s offense and also affect how they juggle lines and matchup on the road.
Dallas has the firepower, Oettinger has reason to perform well, and the defense has limited the chances teams have had against them.
Dallas in regulation -165
As far as Dallas potential goal scorers, I had it narrowed down to Duchene, Hintz, and possibly a long shot on Hesikanen. I’m waiting to see goalie confirmation for Arizona, to see if there’s any value in the matchup.
My anti friend, what do you think about over 6.5?
The short answer is I personally couldn’t trust Arizona to contribute enough offensively. I could try to post something more in depth as to what had me concerned. If you wanted to check back in an hour for that. But getting back to you as quick as possible, I was worried about some Arizona offensive regression which we might already be seeing. And a potential bounce back spot from Oettinger as well.
Also Obviously it’s just my opinion which I’ve been wrong many times before especially on totals.
I saw more paths to a Dallas win in regulation than I do for an Over so that was the better choice for me personally.
I like your opinions
Arizona xGF has been below 3 in 2 of its last 3 games, and 3 of its last 5. It’s not a big sample size but it’s a decline from what they were doing from February 25 to March 7. That was a 7 game span where they had an xGF of at least 3 in every game. In the two games they’ve been able to since, they were able to face Soderblom and the Blackhawks, and Kahkonen and the Devils. I would rate both way below Oettinger, even if he is having a down year.
Arizona has also been aided somewhat by empty net goals, including one in each of their last two games.
Arizona has only had four losses so far this month. However, in those losses they’ve averaged just 2.25 Goals For. 3 of the 4 still hit the Over 6.5. So maybe that can make the case for the Over here.
Bjugstad will play today I see. So that could help Arizona’s offense. However he is one of the guys I anticipate to regress. His goal total for the month of March and shooting percentage are already season highs. And over his last five games he’s essentially scoring a goal on every 3 shots taken.
Other guy on Arizona with high rates is Keller, who’s benefited from 2 empty netters as well. I do generally like Arizonas defensemen to potentially add to the scoring. But one area where Oettinger has been really good is his save percentage from the point and inside the blue line.
Where Oettinger has struggled is High Danger area. Where he is posting Save Percentage of about 77.5. However Arizona is only averaging about 5 High Danger shots per game over their last 5 games. In comparison Dallas is averaging about 8.4 High Danger shots the last 5.
To me there’s other ways to attack the game rather than the Over because it requires too many things I didn’t trust. The best chance for it to cash is probably 3-3 going to OT, or a 4-3 win by either side. And in order to do so it almost certainly requires Dallas to score, unless they get blown out 5-2 at home. In which case Arizona at +240 is a better option.
I think something like 6:3 for Dallas could be possible, but it could also be like 2:1 for Dallas.
But with goalies in net today, chances could be good for over, because of stats and trends.
I would lean Dallas Hintz to score +195 since I mentioned it earlier Small lean not super confident