Written by Graeme on Thursday, March 20th, 2025
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Holy crap there is a LOT of NHL games today.
14! 14 freaking games. Come on.
And of course that is sandwiched between a 2 game night last night, and a 1 game night tomorrow.
Man I hate their schedule.
Oh well we’re on the home stretch. Less than a month to go until the regular season ends. I’m getting pumped for the playoffs.
Let’s get to it.
Devils vs Flames:
Devils generally playing well the last week. Pretty heavily favoured for this one. Their defensive metrics are putting me off the in-regulation play with a worse GA & xGA.
Big game for Markstrom he’ll be looking to step up.
I’m close to a play on Devils (primarily due to my own opinion; the metrics don’t back it up) but the odds, and the Flames showing character against the Rangers and potentially carrying that momentum – are a few warning flags that I’ll hold back on.
Senators vs Avs:
Alright let’s see here – bookies have this as a flip, which is my initial thoughts looking at performances coming into it.
Avs much better CF% and FF% and SF%. Scoring more, conceding a ton less. xGF is about the same, better xGA.
Ottawa at home where they are very good with a 20-9-2 record. Avs on the road, a little bit less to play for than the Sens, 18-5-1 away.
Sens just had a winning streak ended which – well you never know how a team will react.
Yeah I like the Avs tonight. Their road form is shaky, but I think there is enough to contradict that. The only other concern is psot break they’ve faced a lot of the weaker teams which bump up their metrics. But by the power rankings, so have the Sens.
Avs incl OT/SO
Ontario: 1.86 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Canada: 1.86 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
USA: -115 Odds at Intertops.
Everyone Else: 1.86 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2025/03/20 10:53:32 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Blue Jackets vs Panthers:
Jackets dogs here as they come in struggling hard. They lost to the Panthers recently. Panthers a bit woeful too right now. Honestly the way the Jackets are this season I could see them getting the win. Unfortunately, there is nothing factual to back that up it’s pure gut.
Capitals vs Flyers:
Caps coming in off a couple of wins looking to beat up on the woeful Flyers. Odds aren’t there for in regulation. The GF% actually makes the -1.5 look appealing, but the advanced metrics unfortunately are too close.
Although actually – man, I do want to take this one at face value. Flyers are struggling to score hard, Capitals offense on a heater and that’s with their special teams not showing up. I’m going with it, but fair warning the advanced metrics aren’t on my side. Thankfully, the empty net metrics resoundingly are.
Caps -1.5
Ontario: 2.05 Odds atBet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Canada: 2.07 Odds at Bovada
USA: +107 Odds at Bovada
Everyone Else: 2.05 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2025/03/20 10:53:32 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Rangers vs Leafs:
Eh. At face value I kinda like the Leafs but the advanced metrics go more towards how the bookies have it priced. Nothing here.
Islanders vs Canadiens:
Islanders coming in feeling good, but so are the Habs. Bookies have Islanders at about 1.76. Eh – I’d have it as a coin flip myself but not feeling good enough about the Habs here.
Blues vs Canucks:
Blues on a tear at the moment. CF% & FF% is very tight, but scoring more, conceding less, xGF% is close. Ah man I’d love to back the Blues here but their odds are just too low at 1.71. I think give me 1.80 and I’m closer, and I’m all over the flip odds.
Predators vs Ducks:
Nothing for this one. Nothing really jumping out in the metrics I guess a slight lean towards Preds but not anywhere near enough to back them in regulation.
Stars vs Lightning:
This one is very close – based on advanced metrics it’s a high variance one and I’m not seeing anything worth betting.
Blackhawks vs Kings:
Yeah I ain’t taking Kings -1.5 on the road lol considering they have a 2.27 GF/60 over the last 10. C’mon.
Club vs Sabres:
Not enough confidence in Utah to back them. By the metrics yeah they should win in regulation here it’s just their GF/60 which is the big concern. And Buffalo showing a bit of fight last couple games plus Utah being blown out. Honestly if you’re on the fence on this one I do like Utah in reg here. But the Sabres defense have shown signs of life – Red Wings game aside.
Oilers vs Jets:
Oilers too all over the place to consider anything involving them.
Knights vs Bruins:
I’m currently avoiding the Bruins. I feel like I was avoiding the Knights too pre break. I think Knights can take this in regulation. The -1.5 is a bit tight and at below 2.00 not something for me to consider anyway.
Sharks vs Hurricanes:
I saw someone say today “blindly take Canes -1.5 don’t even think about it”. I guess that’s true in that if you put thought into it, then the hockey variance gods have fun with it – you don’t have to regret the work you put in.
But let’s see. Sharks struggling of courss but they’ve generally been able to get the goals going other than the Caps game. Canes playing mean, on a tear, nice and rested.
CF% much better for Canes, slightly better FF% and SF%. Actual GF/60 a bit low at 2.98 last 10. xGF/60 3.56. Sharks 3.54 GA/60 and xGA/60 of 3.06. Canes SCGF/60 of 2.39.
At the price – I think I’m happy to pass to be honest. I could see this being a trap spot – even though I mentioned the rest, that little break might be bad for them you never know. Not against the bet – just not one I’m rushing to make. There have been much better “gimme” spots.
