Written by Scott on Saturday, March 23rd, 2024
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4 games yesterday.
The Caps beat the Canes 7-6 in a shootout to move within 1 pointback of the Wings. The Stars beat the Pens 4-2 and the Avalanche beat the Jackets 6-1 and both teams moved ahead of the idle Jets for 1st place in the Central. The final game of the night was Kraken vs the Coyotes and the Coyotes won 2-1 in overtime.
These are going to be quick due to start times and lack of time. I haven’t had any time to go through the games so there isn’t any tips just brief thoughts. Be sure to add your picks in the comments.
Bruins vs Flyers Betting Tips:
These teams played on March 16th and the Bruins won that 6-5.
Both teams are in the playoffs. The Bruins are in 1st place overall and the Flyers are in 3rd in the Metro.
On the road the Bruins are 18-6-9 and at home the Flyers are 18-14-3. Should be a good game.
Jets vs Islanders Betting Tips:
Jets still fighting for 1st place in the Central. On the road they are 21-11-3.
The Isles playoffs are slipping away. They have lost 6 in a row, are 15-9-10 at home and are 5 points back of the Wings who are in 8th.
Blues vs Wild Betting Tips:
Big game here between the 9th and 10th place teams in the West.
The Blues are 4 points back and the Wild 5.
I expect both teams to be ready for this crucial game so I have no idea who wins it.
The played on March 16th and that was a close one that saw the Blues win 3-2 in a shootout.
Wings vs Predators Betting Tips:
Wings are in 8th place but can’t be comfortable yet with the Caps not far behind them.
The Preds are on fire. They are on a 16 game point streak and in 7th in the West. They have a 5 point lead over the Knights.
The Preds should win this game but the Wings have won 2 in a row and need any and all points they can get.
Oilers vs Leafs Betting Tips:
The Oilers are ranked 4th in GPG and the Leafs 2nd.
The Oilers are in 2nd in the Pacific, 8 behind the Canucks and 5 ahead of the Kings. They are coming off of that game where they went crazy in the 3rd period against the Sabres scoring 5 times.
The Leafs are in 3rd place in the Atlantic and 7 points behind the Panthers who are in 2nd. They have a 5 point lead over the 7th place Lightning. They are also coming off of a high scoring game where they beat the Caps 7-3.
Senators vs Devils Betting Tips:
Nothing here for me.
Panthers vs Rangers Betting Tips:
Big game.
The Panthers are in 2nd in the Atlantic but have lost their last 3 games.
The Rangers are in 1st in the Metro and are 6-3-1 in last 10.
They played back on March 4th and the Panthers won that one 4-2.
Should be a good game to watch.
Flames vs Canucks Betting Tips:
Flames 5-5 in last 10. They are 10 points back of the wild card.
The Canucks are 6-2-2 and on a 2 game win streak. They are in 1st in the Pacific and 1st in the Western Conference.
Still no Demko so nothing here.
Lightning vs Kings Betting Tips:
Lightning on 5 game win streak but are 17-16-2 on the road. They are 5 points back of the Leafs who are in 3rd in the Atlantic.
The Kings have won their last 2 games but are 16-11-7 at home. They’re in 3rd in the Pacific but have only a 2 point lead over the Knights.
2 big points up for grabs here which will go a long way in helping both teams for positioning.
Jackets vs Knights Betting Tips:
Not touching Jackets who played last night.
Knights are in 8th but are only 4 points ahead of the 9th place Blues. They need to win games like this against weaker teams.
I would lean towards the Knights but they are 2-2 in last 4 which isn’t encouraging.
Blackhawks vs Sharks Betting Tips:
No. Just no.
Im om the bruins and predators regarding the prices we are getting. Also, keep doing what you do best! Always reading your page before any picks.
Nashville -170
Going thru the 4 early games so far, and Nashville is the biggest stand out to me. While Larkin is back for Detroit and will give them a boost as he’s already done so, I don’t know if it will be enough to overcome some of their other weaknesses.
Most notably being the goaltender matchup. Detroit has already confirmed Lyon for this matchup. It’s a bit puzzling to me and I’m interested to see how he handles this spot. Detroit’s last two wins were with Reimer in net. Lyon’s last game had him giving up 5 against the Penguins( the sixth goal was an empty netter).
Lyon is 1-7 over his last 8, with a 4 GAA and .857 Save Percentage during that span. He’s allowed 4 or more in six of those eight games. The last time he conceded less than 3 goals was a month ago.
On the flip side Saros and even Lankinen have been as good as can be. While Detroit will get a boost offensively, and can still be dangerous on the Power Play, Nashville has done well in both regards. The Predators have allowed only 3 Power Play Goals Against the last 10 games. And just 1 of their last 15 opponents has been able to register an xGF above 3 against them.
To add to the defense and goaltending numbers, the offense has also performed well for Nashville. They’ve scored 42 goals over their last 10 games. The xGF has also backed up the production as it’s been above 3 in 7 of those games.
While you would expect Nashville’s home record to be slightly better, their opponent is currently below .500 on the road.
My biggest issue with the play here, is probably the price I’m getting Nashville at. I handicapped this game Nashville -140. It Opened -160. By the time I got in on it it’s already climbed to -170. It’s about 5 percent higher.
I’ve mentioned before, when I’m that far off from the books line, the mistake is probably with my number not theirs. So my number was definitely too low and can help explain the 3 percent gap on the opener. Having said that it’s almost climbed another 2 percent since and this is typically the movement I try to avoid. I tend to look for spots that generally fade the public, or at least get the best of the number. This play is breaking that rule.
This was a bit long winded, but I felt like it was a good spot to explain why sometimes I may tip a certain play on a less popular team. Or avoid a somewhat more obvious play, for a more difficult one. Often times, it’s simply just the line value I think I’m getting, makes it worth the risk.
I also have a play on Minnesota -140. I got down on that early based on the opening line. I had priced Minnesota-160 and saw value. However having time, I think I jumped the gun a bit. I don’t feel as strongly about that play as I did yesterday. I’ll feel slightly better about the Wild’s chances if Eriksson Ek plays this game. He was listed as a Game Time Decision, and has missed their last four games. The offense has struggled in the mean time. Including two games vs the Ducks. And a shootout loss to this same Blues team.
I still have to go thru the late games. If anything jumps out I’ll post it, and I promise it won’t be as long.
Check the starting goalies teams decide to roll with today. We have a rare 10 game card for Sunday.
As for goal scorers, I’ll have no time to look into them with the amount of games. Which is probably for the better. However, just looking at the early games
Boston’s Marchand
St. Louis Buchnevich
and Detroit DeBrincat
stood out to me. I’ll probably blindly take a shot on Marchand. Best price I saw for him was +235.
DISCLAIMER:
Don’t bet with real money on my opinions.
I’m a stupid better, who wastes tons of units to gain minimal profits.
I take Minnesota ML @ 1.68 with 8 units
Chicago! Chicago! to WIN on the puckline
Full game OVER 5.0: Nashville and Toronto games
Patrick Kane OVER 2.5 shots on net.
When Chicago wins they win in style and when San Jose loses, they lose in style. This is one such matchup. The result on March 17 was 5-2 for Chicago, which matches the win/loss pattern of both teams for that quality of opponent.
Here’s the party music to go along with the win:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wUY3stptpVQ