Written by Graeme on Thursday, March 24th, 2016
Follow @BetNHL
It was a good night last night with us going 3-0.
We both picked the Islanders to win in regulation, and the Islanders had a big 2nd period scoring 3 goals there. Sens got one back but that was it. There was only 42 shots on goal in the game, and the Islanders started really slow. The Sens really should have capitalized. But as we learned after the Buffalo game – the Sens are just not playoff calibre this season, and they couldn’t do the business. Was nice to be on the right side of variance there – a week ago the Sens would have went up 2-0 and we would have been screwed!
In the Rangers vs Bruins game I picked the Rangers to win, and Scott went with the Over 5 goals. Rangers got a big 5-2 win. Bruins are another team who I don’t really believe are playoff caliber although it’s hard to base that off this game as it was one where everything just clicked for the Rangers.
And I’m sure this will be good news to all hockey fans out there:
Much busier schedule tonight with about 500 billion games at last check. It’s very possible when we look into it a bit later, we’ll do some exclusive tips for our social networking fans. So be sure to Like Us on Facebook or Follow us on Twitter for those. We have 2 potential tips that we’re waiting till a bit later in the day before deciding on.
Let’s see what we’ve got tonight:
Sharks vs Oilers Betting Tips:
The Sharks were shutout against the Blues – their 2nd time being shutout this month They bounced back from the first one with a 5-2 victory over the Capitals and I like a similar bounce back here.
That’s not to take anything away from the Oilers. Hell it took until earlier this week for the Oilers to be mathematically eliminated from the playoffs. I think that’s a record for them. They’ve picked up solid wins on the road in recent times against the Flyers, Jets and Minnesota Wild.
However the Sharks looked hungry against the Blues. They have a surprisingly weak 16-16-3 home record but a large part of that is from earlier in the season. they’ve looked much better in recent times with some magnificent performances over the Rangers, Bruins and Capitals and I like to them to add the Edmonton Oilers to that list, further increasing the chances of the Oilers getting that #1 draft pick that every true NHL fan hopes they get.
Sharks in Regulation
Canada: 1.72 Odds at 888 Sports.
USA: -130 Odds at BetOnline..
Everyone Else: 1.72 Odds at 888 Sports.
Flyers vs Avalanche Betting Tips:
This is a game we’re excited to watch. Both teams are playing great and the Avs have did really well despite missing Duchene and MacKinnon.
But I think the Flyers can take this here. They slipped up against the Jackets the other night. Instead of the heads going down I expect them to take this one in a more professional fashion and not get complacent. I also think there’s been an adjustment period getting used to Voracek back – as they also had to adjust to Giroux returning as well.
We’re going with Flyers to win.
Canada: 1.90 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv.
USA: -115 Odds at BetOnline..
Everyone Else: 1.90 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv.
Grand Salami:
The Grand Salami is something we usually only bet for fun as it’s a very high variance system – but tonight I like the Home Team vs Away Teams.
I just don’t see many road wins tonight. Even with upsets possible, I think a lot of the road teams are going to be given a tough time of it and there are a good few home teams who could get a big result.
I’m taking Home Teams -2.5 tonight. For those unaware, Home Teams -2.5 means you add all the goals scored by home teams and goals scored by away teams together. Home Teams need to score at least THREE more goals than the away teams.
You can bet the Grand Salami at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv. or if you’re American, bet it at BetOnline..
Most books should list the Salami so feel free to ask in the comments if you can’t find it and I’ll see if yours lists it.
Experimental Betting Systems:
(Our 1st period systems are based on 3 levels of confidence that the system has for each pick. Ideally all 3 systems will be winners long runs, with the high confidence system doing the best but with the least amount of picks etc)
1st Period System Low Confidence: Pittsburgh Penguins (2.35), Minnesota Wild (2.50), Dallas Stars (2.50)
Bet 1st Periods at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv or 888 Sports..
Americans: Bet 1st Periods at BetOnline. or Bovada.
Bruins, Ducks, Wild and Sharks.
Careful with the Bruins, Gustavsson is probably starting and he’s pretty unreliable. I like the over in this game but I’m only getting -140 so I’m putting it in a parlay.
On dailyfaceoff apear Rask, but uncorfimed.
DF means nothing unless it shows confirmed. he didn’t make the 2nd period last night and I doubt he made a full recovery after flying home last night. If he’s ready for tonight he’s going to be shaky. Either way, it’s going to be a goal fest and I predict Bs lose 6 in a row.
agree with you here. the combination of bruins getting smacked by the rangers last night, gustavsson likely starting and bruins playing at home where they struggle..i like florida here
No grand salami on Bodog right?
They offer it but like most bets there it won’t be out till later today.
Salami on SportsInteraction?
It usually is – under NHL Props if memory serves me correct. Not there right now though so maybe a bit later – as I see their player props aren’t open yet either.
TONIGHT
DUCKS
STARS
KINGS
DUCKS to lose, sorry, they have the worst goaltending in NHL.
IM still taking them
“Worst”. “2nd Best”. All the same really.
The h2h is crushing against Ducks @ Leafs, but anything have a end.
omg worst goaltending? do you watch hockey? you seem mad lol
i like it. i cant see the kings losing their third game in a row to the jets. just cant. 4-1 kings, 5-2 stars, 3-2 ducks.
who do you guys think will score to today?
WHO LIKES
MTL +1.5
You have to go back 10 H2H games to find the last time Wings beat Habs by more than 2. Habs always ride them close. In saying that Habs are a high variance team at the moment. We vowed not to bet Habs games anymore this season due to that – but we’d prefer to be on the site of Detroit(in regulation) on that one.
for me its red wings in reg… so thats risky
there’s no value here
VAN +1.5
ANY THOUGHTS?
The odds favour the Canucks tonight and I think any bet on them would be +EV. Preds seem to be way too heavy favourites.
THANKS
putting 100 on stars, sharks, pens -1.5, ducks, panthers. thoughts anyone?
I like it
same to yours. might put that one in myself.
Devils tender is a rookie who did well in his debut, those guys always make me nervous because they are so jacked up on adrenaline.
yeah i hear you there. I just feel like going up against CBJ offense and pens offense is a little different. And i cant see devils scoring a whole bunch against fleury tonight. but yeah, being a rangers fan, devils always make me nervous. i hate them. even more than boston lol
Not to sure if Philly is gonna win this .. but yes I like there form so much that the odds are still nice for them
what are your thoughts on the over 5 on this game and on the Kings in Reg?
the salami tbh I dont play that… but I kinda agree I see so many favourites at home that it looks good
i would stay away from this game altogether…if i would do anything, it would be the under.
the first game? I just like philly because of the injuries the avs have and form from the flyers… but both teams need the W so bad that I predict a good fight with goals I think 😛
king in reg for sure, philly/col under.
im also thinking of the ducks… even if there is a lot of cons in that game… but I do believe the ducks dont want to be losing out tonight… another day off? would seem very strange because there is also home ice advantage to try to get… and they can hope the kings could fall .. I like their reg odds also even if the leafs seem to beat them a lot at home lol
yeah ducks will be focused this game after their loss to mtl. take ducks
my final thought seem to lean to
Kings , Ducks and Sharks RT for pre-live odds
I prefer not to play the salami and the Flyers only as a live bet and we will see how it goes
After a perfect night what a disaster again ffs that didn’t go well
Despite all the games, it’s a difficult night to find sharp bets, both because of the heavy odds on so many games and because of the end-of-season variance that’s been very prevalent.
Devils-Pens – I like the O5 here. I’m getting -115 and the PL for Pens is only +115, so I like the value of the over because U5 has been 2-11 in Pens last 13 and Devils have been in some high scoring games in past 12 too.
Cats O2.5 – Gustavsson will probably be in net and the Bs defense has a lot of holes right now. I’m getting -103 which is good value for a team who has a high GA. I think the Cats could get a win here. As a Bs fan I’m really dismayed at how poorly they are playing right now even though they are healthy. They are going to be a one and done team in the playoffs.
Stars reg and Stars -1.5 – Even without Seguin, Stars are a good team with a potent offense, and they are riding some momentum. They have been putting up a lot of goals and i’m getting EV on reg and +190 for PL. I’ll take that value all day.
I don’t like the Big Salami Home but I do like the O59.5. There are going to be a couple of 8, 9 or 10 goal games tonight that will make up for the low scoring games. EV odds
For my non-NHL tip: Take Oregon ATS. Oregon is the superior overall team here and Duke is really not that good this year. Duke is just 1-7 ATS in their last 8 neutral site games and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games when playing a team with a winning record. The Ducks are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games when playing a team with a winning record and 7-2 ATS in their last 9 NCAA Tournament games.
good luck boys
taking oregon ats and stars pl
Rangers played really well last night except for a couple of brain freezes. With Hank in form and team playing solid they have a chance to make it to the conference finals. SC not so sure.
yeah. i had them and isles both with PL so it was a good night as a rangers fan and for my wallet lol. and stanley cup may be a stretch, but keeping my hopes up for that.
Oregon is the PLAY of the NIGHT!!!!! Sharps are on Ducks. Semi-home game in Anaheim. Ducks depth will be too much for Devils.
Also like Texas A&M and their strong defense to stifle Buddy and the gang.
Just read an interview with Duke beat reporter who basically said, “Yeah, they are totally outmatched against Oregon.” I just added to my stake tonight.
Never underestimate Coach K. Duke is a proven bracket winner and can/should never be taken lightly. It is going to be a close game to say the least and I got 3 points with Duke so took them. The Ducks are number 1 for a reason, but I DO think things are a little easier in the Pac-12
Looks like I’m the one who did the underestimating!!!
would I steer you wrong brother?
Congrats to us on the Oregon play, once they got going they never looked back. Cashed in a nice ticket. Unfortunately, The Aggies messed up my parlay with Oregon, Duke and Texas. Still, it was a positive night which made up for some of the recent hockey losses.
Have faith in your team mate 🙂 i know it’s easy to feel like they have no chance after last nights game but when you really think about it, Panthers have lost 2 in a row and despite playing okay they haven’t been able to respond to pure willpower lately. After being the better team against Islanders they lost a 2-0 lead (and the game) in the last ~5 minutes, Red Wings broke the tie in the 3rd and won, Rangers needed a win badly and in all honesty the Panthers, despite keeping it close, didn’t have a real chance to win that game IMO. Bruins know how to beat Florida and they have the home crowd on their side which is huge.
They had 3 days to rest before last night, and considering what’s at stake, they shouldn’t have any problems getting their legs going.
I agree Gustavsson in net gives the game a lot (unwanted) variance, but Luongo is 2-6 in his last 8 starts vs Bruins and i think that makes the game winnable.
I think the Bruins will at least get this game to OT, and then it’s more or less a 50/50 game.
How about a Vatrano goal tonight ? 🙂
All valid points. However, Cats come in well rested while Bs have been on grinding stretch inc B2B. Cats will be motivated by 0-3 so far vs Bs. Cats are a decent road team while Bs have one of the worst home records in the entire league. Nope, not feeling terribly optimistic about tonight’s game, but I’ll go with your assessment of OT, though I’m not betting it. I like the over in this game, otherwise it’s a coin flip or leaning towards Cats.
Yeah – i like the over too. Especially after i saw Gustavsson’s record vs the Bruins. Man that sucks, if the Bruins lose im almost positive it’ll be because of Luongo winning the matchup against Gus.
Have to respect a fan’s opinion though, going to stay away from the B’s ^^
at least the O/U was a push
All the predictions aside, no matter how you look at it, the Bruins got robbed – at the worst possible time too. I mean how deflating can it be to first give up a SHG goal and then get a clear tying goal away from you ? That’s quite possibly the worst call i’ve ever seen.
Basically we will never know how that game should’ve ended. That’s just BS. Sorry man.
SMH. as someone tweeted: Dear Toronto, we get it. You have no color photos of your last Stanley Cup team. Go screw with the Blackhawk’s lives instead for a while.
(Y)
Do you will post any picks @artoreinikainen:disqus ?
re: Vatrano: you have to wonder why Sweeney took so long bringing the kid up. I know there hasn’t been a lot of room, but he’s been tearing up the “A”
No kidding, IIRC he was pretty good earlier in the season no ? Then again the Bruins have good forward depth.
But can’t argue with his goal totals in the A. 33 goals in 33 games ? That’s just ridiculous.
Thanks for the Oregon tip – I don’t bet basketball but did put this one game into my combo bet for little money. Unfortunately hockey games screwed that ticket boo.
LAKings ML 100% — I know this is a grind for the Kings with lots of games in a short amount of time. Feel good about this pick as the Kings dropped a close one to Minny and have dropped two straight. Don’t see this losing streak going three games. Gimme the Royals 4 Jets 2.
Philly ML 90% — It’s also been a road grind for the Flyers. I think the AVs just haven’t defended home ice very well. Both teams are in need of points as the calendar is losing days in the season. Injuries are catching up with Colorado’s depth, too. Gimme Flyers 4 Avs 3
Dallas ML 90% — Stars have been reeling off road wins like no tomorrow, and now they face off against a less-than stellar Arizona squad.
Ducks/MapleLeafs OVER 5 100%
Tonight pics,
Bruins win %85
Hurricanes win %65
Wild win %80
Good luck!
Edmonton Oilers – organization that caused the NHL to change the draft rules so that one team couldn’t get so many 1st overalls.
It will happen if they win (could happen regardless). If that’s not sad then i don’t know what is.
But to be honest, if the Oilers were 100% healthy all season long i really think they could’ve competed for a playoff spot. I saw more positives this year than in all of the past years combined. But they are not in a stage where they could handle those type of injuries. I mean, if the Hawks were without Keith for the majority of the season and Kane/Toews were out a long time as well, they would have problems despite being one of the most succesful teams in recent history. Apply that to the fragile Oilers team trying to learn how to win hockey games on a consistent basis, with a new system and coach – nope not going to work.
They’re going to be a lot better than the Hurricanes, Devils, Coyotes, Leafs etc. next year. So in that sense IMO it’s a shame if they get Matthews. There are teams in need of a player like him A LOT more than the Oilers.
McDavid was a “WTF LOL NO WAY HAHA” moment, Matthews would be a “:facepalm:” moment. Just sad.
@betnhl S&G, first, I really appreciate your tips, insights into hockey and a great forum to discuss hockey and betting. Second, I was wondering if it would be possible to establish a separate forum for topics that go beyond the daily tips? Does your platform have that functionality?
We could do that but I don’t think the community is quite there just yet. However we’re looking to do 2-3 articles a week during the Summer and the idea of discussion topics could be good. I’ve already got some planned but if there’s any specific topics let me know and I’ll see if we could do that.
Graeme
thanks, I’ll give it some thought. Could you set up a member only discussion forum where we can initiate topics? today’s threads are a good example of topics that could be carried outside the tips.
Good picks IMO – I also had a look at the Stars in regulation, Wild in regulation and the Over 5 at Bruins vs. Panthers.
Do you guys agree with these picks?
@betnhlca:disqus
@artoreinikainen:disqus @SanDiegoBruins:disqus – Always enjoying to read your posts 🙂
Agree with Minny in reg. Got a bit headshake about Bruins-Panthers game tonight – I want to go with FLA ML or even in reg, I was watching Boston game with NYR and they were kinda bad.That motivate me to go for Panthers.
Any toughts about BS-FLA game?
If Gustavsson will start, im going with the Over 5 – Cats have some good offensive power and a high GA.
Arto and I have been debating this game elsewhere on the page and we agree that there are arguments for taking either team. That said, I think Over is a sharper bet. As a Bs fan I have low confidence in them at this point, especially with Rask not at the top of his game.
Sorry Johnny just saw this now was swamped today.
Graeme
WTG guys going 2-0 yesterday….My picks sucked the bag going 0-2…….Let’s see what I do tonight…I did great with my soccer picks earlier on today….Let’s see what I do with the NHL TONIGHT….Wild In Regular Time ; Stars – Coyotes Over 5,5 Goals ; Pittsburgh -1,5 Goals ; Arizona + 1,5 Goals…Have a great night and WIN BIG
this just confirmed: Tuukka Rask in net tonight for Bs. Let’s see if he lasts longer than a period.
I absolutely LOVE the -2,5 home teams Grand Salami bet. Thanks a lot S&G, i never would’ve thought that myself (rarely ever look at special bet types). Reason i like it a lot is instead of going for Detroit, Minnesota, Pittsburgh and Nashville separately which makes no sense due to extremely low odds, or making a combo which is doomed to fail, majority of the other games favor the home teams as well, so even if there’s a couple of upsets i still have a good chance to win.
Anyway, my picks for tonight.
High confidence:
Kings ML
Avalanche ML
Medium confidence:
Blue Jackets ML
Coyotes-Stars OT
Low confidence:
Ducks-Leafs OT
Bruins in regulation (Rask in net)
Bonus bet:
Frank Vatrano to score at 6.00 odds.
It’s a shame im not very experienced with over/under bets. I feel like there could be a lot of potential tonight (i feel like we have a good amount of goals coming) but after thinking about the winners for 4 hours straight im starting to get so confused i can’t comment on those.
If you want to know my reasoning for any of the picks above i’d be happy to answer.
Good luck !
I place 1k on -2.5 home. Lets this be a prosperous night!
Maple Leafs helping out the home BS.
And the Devils countering, man, if they win this game i’ll be sad. I had this big speech prepared why the Devils are 100% worth the value (5.25 in regulation).
But then i saw Fleury’s record, he had won like 7 home games in a row against the Devils – last loss was in 2012, so i decided to leave it.
I really hope the Pens make a comeback.
come on, let’s hear the speech anyhow.
Nothing special really, the classic NHL upset.
Pens
– on a roll, check
– clearly the better team, check
– starter in net while the underdog goes with their backup/rookie goalie, check
– at home, check
So, Pens must win 100% right ? Well, sure that’s what instantly comes to mind. So if we think that, looking at the odds everybody seems to think that, isn’t there a good chance the players think that too ?
Meanwhile the Devils have played great hockey recently, have confidence (7 goal outburst vs the Wild for example), and are ready to work for the win as teams almost always are when they go against heavy favorite. I mean, nobody wants to lose by default and they know they have to outwork their opponent, so that’s the gameplan.
And because they’re feeling good about themselves as well as showing a good work ethic, they’re able to be opportunistic while the favorite takes their time to get their game going, and when they get it going it’s tough to score on the underdog after they get a boost from getting the lead.
Basically every time i see 1.6-1.9 regulation win odds for the favorite that’s already a red flag by itself.
The best tip i can give to people is, when a team is playing well and getting the results, it’s always very dangerous when they play a non-playoff team. Odds are low and you’ll lose in the long run.
Remember Ducks-Canadiens ? Canucks are up 2-0 against the Preds atm. Then i recall games like Flames beating the Pens a couple weeks ago, on the road with Ortio in net. Flyers-Jackets. could go on and on. And every single time the theme of the game is the same: favorite on a roll vs non-playoff team.
One thing that surprises me is we rarely ever get asked “Why didn’t you pick this team to win?”. Sometimes it’s not about the tips we make, but the tips we don’t make.
We go through every game thoroughly analyzing it etc. While we try and stick to 3 tips if we feel confident enough about enough tips we’ll back them. It was only a couple of months ago I had 7 tips up here one Saturday.
Penguins is a good example of that. You just listed all these reasons as to why people would pick the Penguins – but note that we didn’t pick them. Always a reason for that.
Graeme
Well you’ve said you generally stay away from odds lower than 1.70, so i assumed that was the reason ^^
TO knocked off Ducks tonight in OT. No different than Devil Dogs beating Pens. I think you hit on it: team with best record takes the other guys for granted and,..BOOM…you lose
This home -2,5 GS bet is a nightmare tonight xD First it looks like there’s no way it’s going to hit, then after some unexpected turn of events it looks like it’s more likely to hit than miss, and at that point i realized there’s one more game left – the only one i didn’t analyze it all, and as soon as i saw the f****** Oilers name up there against the Sharks, and considering what we just talked about, Sharks losing the 2-0 lead in 5 minutes didn’t even surprise me lol.
I hope the Sharks can still win this in OT or something, because i have faith the Coyotes can win their game in regulation.
But imagine this: Home teams end up +2, so the bet loses by one goal. I think Toronto owes us all one at that point. If that Bergeron goal counts like it should there’s NO way the Bruins lose by 3 goals.
Im trying my best to reverse-jinx this one 😀
Oh well going to bed.
I knew it was going to be a wacky night, with a lot of goals. It would really suck if the disallowed goal in Boston made the difference. Let’s hope not. I should have put more on the over because I was very certain we’d see some big games that would more than make up for the tight ones. I ended up tonight, but that was mostly due to the Oregon game. They more than covered the spread with 12 points. I’m sure most of you would agree that I should stick to picking CBB. However, hockey is my favorite sport and I really want to beat the game; it’s just so damn unpredictable. Light night tomorrow with only one interesting game between Isles and Bolts. I like the over in that game.
What a ridiculous night, once again. Dogs winning left and right.
I am completely bewildered by the results of these teams the past few days. I’ve been following you guys for quite a while now and you are usually right on when it comes to analysis and predictions. It’s very difficult for me to believe that anyone could have predicted an Oilers win, or a Devils win, or a Jets win, let alone all in the same night. My question for everyone is, are these “upsets according to the oddsmakers” a result of good coaching? Talented new youthful players competing for a spot next year? Or just lack of preparedness from the opposition? I’m very curious to see what ‘words of preparation’ were used for the Penguins game. The Penguins game is very stunning for me, not so much that they lost, but that they got shutout at home. Or perhaps is it possible that some of these games are ‘dirty’ and people we shouldn’t know of, are making money off of this? The Nashville and Anaheim odds were falling so quickly. Or perhaps I’m just being paranoid and it’s like saying “Any given Sunday?”
well another crazy night last night and not a good one for me. I expected the Leafs to possibly surprise (again) in fact played them to win first period in one of my combo 1st period bets, but didn’t expect PIT to not score at all and the Kings to lose and the same for the Sharks and the Stars. The way I had my combos put together I got some right, some not – ending in loss. Can’t access my tickets right now due to Easter and the betting site is closed till midnight. But I expect to see only few euros back from the last night games..