Written by Graeme on Saturday, March 25th, 2023
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It was a disappointing one from the Islanders last night, as their goaltending just fell apart in the 2nd period. They were the better side, but couldn’t get the win for us and lost in overtime.
Buffalo got a good 5-4 win over the Sabres, and the Avs did the job in a dominant performance over the Coyotes.
It’s Saturday. I’ve got a couple of hours until the Scotland vs Cyprus game so let’s get on with these so I can hopefully enjoy a successful start to our European Championship campaign!
I expect there’ll be a lot of games I can easily pass on. Just that time of year, unfortunately. Roll on the playoffs.
Flyers vs Wings:
Philly have shown up their last few games. Detroit are eh. There’s just not enough for me to back the Flyers here. Their offensive metrics are generally better, but their defensive metrics cancel it out and it makes it a closer game than the bookies indicate.
Bruins vs Lightning:
I’m basically convinced at this point that Tampa are just riding it out until the playoffs. I get it. The real question is – do they raise their game here? And if they do, is that enough?
They haven’t played a lot of great teams lately but they did play well against the Devils in a few of those games. A big one against the Knights. Looking at the metrics for those games I think yeah, they do raise their game here.
But Boston are really good. Tampa have a slight edge in defensive metrics where the Bruins goaltending has been doing them favours.
So Tampa raising their game is a bit of a concern, and we saw them beat the Bruins 3-2 back in January.
But Boston still feel a safe enough bet to make. They’re just overall the better team, and even if Tampa raises their game it shouldn’t be enough.
Bruins in Regulation
Ontario: 2.00 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Canada: 2.00 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
USA: -105 Odds at BetOnline.
Everyone Else: 2.00 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2023/03/25 9:21:26 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Predators vs Kraken:
These two just played. I had nothing then. I have nothing now.
Flames vs Sharks:
Flames are on my “no bet” list for the rest of the season, along with the Capitals. I just cannot trust this Flames offense at all. Or the team in general, really. I definitely don’t trust them -1.5 here.
Kings vs Jets:
Down the stretch, the Kings are a team I have been liking a lot and bet them quite a few times over the last month and they have duly delivered. The Jets racked up two wins against the Ducks and Coyotes. Big whoop.
Korpisalo has been playing fine. When I took the Kings/Canucks under last week it wasn’t goalie dependent on the Kings end as I was fine with him.
Yeah I like the Kings here. Just feel the overwhelmingly better side. The OT/SO odds are fine but looking at the numbers, I feel confident enough in Kings in Regulation. Not sure if it should be goalie dependent or not. I’m hoping Copley gets the start but if not I’ll put my faith in Korp.
Ontario: 2.35 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Canada: 2.35 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
USA: +115 Odds at BetOnline.
Everyone Else: 2.35 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2023/03/25 9:21:26 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Islanders vs Sabres:
Nothing really jumping out at me here. With the back to backs I’d prefer to pass. If you want to go by the metrics, Islanders Over 3.5 team goals looks like an easy play to make.
Actually yeah despite the back to back situation, I think there is enough on that one. Sabres are very leaky, Islanders offense is playing well.
Islanders Over 3.5 Team Goals incl OT/SO
Ontario: 1.83 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Canada: 1.83 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
USA: -120 Odds at BetOnline.
Everyone Else: 1.83 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2023/03/25 9:21:26 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Wild vs Blackhawks:
Wild should win but the odds are basically making it a -2.5 play at this point and that’s too much for me. I’m not even sure about the -1.5 with their defensive issues lately.
Panthers vs Rangers:
Eh. Rangers have some solid defensive metrics going into this one, primarily in relation to goaltending. Florida are desperate. I actually lost earlier in the week with their over team goals against the Leafs, and looking back at it I felt they were feeling the pressure. I could see that happening agiain here and have a slight lean on the Rangers honestly.
Canadiens vs Jackets:
The defensive metrics for both teams are absolutely brutal. I’m not one to back an over primarily on defensive metrics, but I think I have to here. SCGA/60 average of over 4. Both teams high XGA, even worse GA. Both are scoring – Jackets as much as expected, while Habs overperforming a lot but that should continue here.
Over 6.5 incl OT/SO
Ontario: 2.00 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Canada: 2.02 Odds at BetOnline.
USA: +102 Odds at BetOnline.
Everyone Else: 2.02 Odds at BetOnline.
(Odds correct as of 2023/03/25 9:21:26 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Devils vs Senators:
Nothing for this one.
Hurricanes vs Leafs:
And another one I’m happy to skip. Carolina have felt a bit uninspired lately. Leafs rattled them on the 17th.
Stars vs Canucks:
Stars really have nothing to play for. The Canucks are having fun out there. With the Stars defensive metrics, I could see the Canucks putting up the goals here. Of course a lot of the Stars games are based on road performances. A bit tighter at home. Canucks over 2.5 team goals is tempting but not enough to back.
Penguins vs Capitals:
Don’t bet on games involving the Caps anymore. Odds seem about right for this one anyway. Maybe a slight lean on Washington buit not enough.
Oilers vs Knights:
I don’t know if the Oilers should be so heavily favoured here, but I’m also not up for backing against that offense.
Ducks vs Blues:
Nothing for this one. At home I actually don’t hate the Ducks here. Their offense HAS to perform better, and the Blues defensive metrics could see that happenf or them. Just not enough in it.
To WIN moneyline: Los Angeles Kings
Full game OVER 6.0: Panthers/Rangers
Strong lean: Win puckline: LA Kings
Full game of play-acting: Habs/Jackets
LA is on a major heater, at the right time! LA’s last 6 wins have been by the puckline, and the Jets last 4 losses have been by the puckline. The puckline is a strong temptation.
Both Montreal and Columbus desperately want to lose their game today. Columbus made a MAJOR error in winning yesterday. Beating the Islanders? They forgot themselves. The Connor Bedard Sweepstakes are now a 4-team race to the sewer. Where is their integrity? lol
Lots of teams and situations today I’m not seeing a way to bet on and not going to sweat it.
Not going to bet on the obvious choice of Calgary to WIN moneyline, or the just as photogenic puckline, because throughout the season, the Flames have collapsed against the weaker teams, just when they desperately needed the win. There is seriously bad chemistry at work with the Flames, all season. Moneyline odds make it useless, and the puckline is too risky because the Flames offense is so inconsistent and often full of @(&#, so San Jose could end up scoring enough to prevent a 2-goal difference. Just not worth it.