Written by Scott on Tuesday, March 26th, 2024
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Only 2 games yesterday.
The Knights beat the Blues 2-1 in overtime and the win moved the Knights 5 points ahead of the Blues for the final wild card spot.
The Kings beat the Canucks 3-2. It was a big win with the Knights also winning to keep the Kings 2 points ahead of them for 3rd in the Pacific.
12 tonight and so big games taking place so someone owes the schedule maker a beer.
Wings vs Capitals Betting Tips:
This is a crazy game. The Wings are in 9th with 78 points in 71 games and the Caps are in the 8th and final wild card spot with 79 points in 70 games. Both teams need this win.
The Wings are slumping going 3-7 over last 10. On the road they’ve gone 15-18-1. The Caps are playing feat going 7-3 in last 10 and are 19-11-5 at home.
They played in February and the Wings won that one 8-3.
This is a big game for both teams. If I had to pick a winner I would say the Caps but the Wings have to get themselves back on track and soon.
Bruins vs Panthers Betting Tips:
The top 2 teams in the Atlantic here. They’re tied for points but the Panthers have played one fewer game.
The Bruins are on a 2 game skid and are 6-3-1 in last 10. On the road they’ve gone 18-7-9. The Panthers are 5-4-1 last 10 and 21-11-2 at home.
This is the 3rd game between these teams with the Bruins winning both and the first game needed overtime.
The Panthers have the slight advantage in both Corsi numbers and the Bruins have the advantage in GF and GA/60. This could go either way and it’s sure to be a great game.
Flyers vs Rangers Betting Tips:
Flyers 4-4-2 last 10 and are in 3rd in the Metro. With the way the Caps are playing and being only 2 points back with 2 games in hand the Flyers need to get their shit sorted out.
The Rangers are fighting with the Hurricanes for top spot in the Metro and they’ll need any points they can get to stay ahead of them. They are 7-3 in last 10 and on a 2 game win streak.
They have played twice with the Rangers winning both.
The Flyers are in but can’t be comfortable so they need to come in to this game ready. I would lean towards the Rangers but it needs to be in regulation. I wouldnt be surprised if, and when, they do but we can’t count out the Flyers making a game of this.
Hurricanes vs Penguins Betting Tips:
The Canes are 8-1-1 in last 10 and 21-11-3 on the road. The Pens have lost their last 3 games and blew a 4-0 lead against the Avs. At home they’ve gone 18-13-4.
The Canes are in 2nd in the Metro only 1 point back of the Rangers. The Pens are 9 points back of the wild card and going 2-6-2 in last 10 isn’t helping them.
The Canes have a small lead in CF and a big advantage in CA. They also are better in both GF and GA/60. The Pens a slight lead in SF but the Canes again better in SA. I think there’s enough here to go with the Canes.
Hurricanes in regulation
Ontario: 1.90 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Rest of Canada: 1.90 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
USA: -115 Odds at Bovada
Everyone Else: 1.90 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2024/03/26 8:35:09 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Devils vs Leafs Betting Tips:
The Devils are 5 points back of the wild card. They’re 5-5 last 10 and 18-15-2 on the road.
The Leafs lost their last game and are 5-4-1 last 10. At home they’ve gone 19-12-3. The Leafs are in 3rd in the Atlantic with 89 points and 8 points back of the 2nd place Bruins but they have two games in hand on Boston.
Basically the same numbers in CF and CA, same goes for SF and SA/60. GF is about the same and the Devils have better GA numbers.
Would have to take the Leafs in regulation but that stats don’t help that enough for me to make it a tip.
Oilers vs Jets Betting Tips:
The Oilers are in 2nd in the Pacific but the Kings are right behind them to they can’t afford to let any points slip.
The Jets have lost 3 in a row and are falling out of the race for 1st place in the Central. They now have 94 points and the Avs and Stars both have 97.
The Oilers have better numbers but the Jets understand the importance of these two points and can’t afford to fall further behind in the fight for the Central.
Knights vs Predators Betting Tips:
Knights played last night and won 2-1. They have won 3 in a row and are 6-4 last 10.
The Predators are on an amazing run. They’re 15-0-2 in last 17 games.
With Hill hurt and Thompson getting the start yesterday the Knights may have to go with Patera in goal. If so that will only help the Preds.
Most of the stats have these teams evenly matched but the Preds have better GF and GA/60.
Preds incl OT/SO if Patera starts for the Knights
Ontario: 1.71 Odds at Sports Interaction
Rest of Canada: 1.71 Odds at Sports Interaction
USA: -143 Odds at BetOnline.
Everyone Else: 1.71 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2024/03/26 8:35:09 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Flames vs Blackhawks Betting Tips:
Flames 3-7 last 10 and on a 3 game losing skid so I’m not touching them.
The Hawks are 5-5 but the wins came against weak teams; the Sharks twice, the Ducks and the Coyotes twice. Not touching them either.
Canadiens vs Avalanche Betting Tips:
The Canadiens haven’t yet been eliminated but it’s only a matter of time at this point. They’re 15 points back, 3-4-3 last 10 and 13-5-8 on the road.
The Avs still have a shot at 1st in the Central. They Stars play the Sharks so they should win that. The Avalanche should win this one too. They’re on a 9 game win streak and are an incredible 28-6-0 at home.
The Avalanche are such favorites that we would have to take them -2.5. The Avs “should” be able to cover that but I’m not betting on a team to win by 3 or more.
Ducks vs Kraken Betting Tips:
Ducks eliminated so staying away from them. The Kraken are on a 8 game losing skid so also avoiding them.
Jackets vs Coyotes Betting Tips:
Jackets are eliminated and the Coyotes aren’t far behind and will probably be the next to go.
I can’t back either team.
Stars vs Sharks Betting Tips:
Really we have to think that the Stars win this game. They are 8-2 last 10 and on a 4 game win streak. On the road they’re 22-9-5.
The Sharks are long eliminated and have lost 7 straight. At home they are an awful 10-20-4.
The played the Sharks back to back to start March and won both but both needed extra time.
We would have to take the Stars -2.5 and I’m not doing that. I would even be reluctant to go with a regulation play with the way the two games went at the start of the month.
We’re definitely in the time of year when the playoff race ranks typically #1 in players’ minds, and daily standings changes can be critical to a player’s and team’s fortunes. Obvious favorites mean little now, trends with teams mean a lot. The worst teams can suddenly start playing great as young players discard normal coaching factors, are driven by their own panic to retain their place on a team, their career choice, and adrenaline goes berserk. Best teams wanting both points and to conserve energy, health and team readiness for the playoffs, can throw chaos into results.
Early leans:
Dallas wins puckline
Nashville wins puckline
Carolina moneyline
Rangers moneyline
Philly is letting in a lot of goals, and the Rangers have had two days off and are at home. Too many one-goal games involved here for me to take the puckline.
I’m off the Avs game. Of course they should win, but the odds are horrid and it breaks the 80-20 rule, and the Avs have let me down in these situations dozens of times. They may take the night off, and the Habs may be supercharged to play the Avs and come out very strong. Not on my dime. More later once I narrow anything down.
Hey fellas, daily reader here and love the insight. I’m curious what the CF, CA, SF, SA and GA metrics mean. Thanks in advance!
Hey Jeff – here’s a glossary which goes into detail https://www.naturalstattrick.com/glossary.php?teams
DISCLAIMER:
Don’t bet with real money on my opinions.
I’m a stupid better, who wastes tons of units to gain minimal profits.
I take Edmonton ML @ 1.8 with 17 unitsSorry I made a mistake, I will correct soon.
DISCLAIMER:
Don’t bet with real money on my opinions.
I’m a stupid better, who wastes tons of units to gain minimal profits.
I didn’t look properly at my system and confused something.
Today there are two good bets for me, but it is a bit complicated and won’t make sense to anybody, but me. 😂🤣
First I have to take Winnipeg ML* @ 2.05 with 13 units
The next bet would be 2 hours later and there is not enough time for Winnipeg to finish the game before.
If they are winning, I will skip the next bet.
If they are losing, I will place a live bet on Anaheim ML* and write units and odds accordingly here. But you should know, that I place as much units as needed to gain a profit.
Anaheim ML @ 2.55 with 17 units