Written by Graeme on Thursday, March 27th, 2025
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A fun night of hockey with all high scoring games. Nice to see.
Just a few weeks left in the regular season now. I think the last couple of seasons we have ended up giving up on tips and just doing analysis about 10-14 days out. But we’ll see how it goes this year – the East wild card race is still very tight which is nice, and hopefully it continues that way.
Either way – you’ll likely see a lot less tips up until the end of the regular season. We’ll still continue to analyze each game though.
The MLB season opens today, and my friend Vin who I’ve worked with in the past on sports betting tips, has his own awesome venture this season. It’s titled Sharp Baseball and he’ll be doing MLB tips all season long.
He did this last year on Patreon and went 305-223 for +24.21 betting units. Anyway you should sign up today because it’s the last day you can get the special rate of $7 a month. After today, it goes up to $10 a month.
All new sign-ups get a 7-day free trial and get the priority e-mail. He has released the one free post here for today to give an example of his write-ups.
Highly recommend signing up – and sign up today. I don’t even follow baseball – I’ve tried for many years and cannot get into it – but I blindly followed all of Vins bets last year and it was a worthy investment.
and like I said – last chance to get it for $7USD a month. Although tbf, even $10US a month is insanely low considering what you get from Vin and what he puts into it all.
Onto todays NHL:
Flyers vs Canadiens:
Flyers come in with a bit of improvement in their last couple of games. Montreal are hurting bad after that Blues loss and will look to put it behind them but it’s been three tough games for them in a row.
The metrics unfortunately don’t point to the Habs here. It’s their xGA/60 that is so bad, and although Phillys offense is piss-poor over the last 10, they do seem to be waking up a tad. Odds seem about right here.
Red Wings vs Senators:
These are the sorta games that make it easy to take a break around this time of the year. Red Wings basically have nothing to play for. Ottawa are pretty much in. So you never know who is going to show up motivated etc. Anyway after the last few Sens games, happy to pass on them.
The metrics are really close in this one. The GF% is in Sens flavour then the rest is so tight that I could see the Wings squeaking it out. But not really a team I’m lining up to back.
Sabres vs Penguins:
Buffalo with a couple of wins on the trot. Any hope the Pens had of the wild card look to be gone after their last couple of blow outs. Malkin might be out again tonight. Nothing in the metrics really jumping out.
Lightning vs CLUB:
These two just played recently and happy to pass on a winner. The over is interesting though set only at 6. Both teams scoring and conceding more than that. Only knock on xG is the Lightnings xGA/60 of 2.45. Utah scored 6 against them but Halverson was in net. I guess we’ll go with that? That’s what the data seems to point towards.
Over 6 incl OT/SO IF Vasy is NOT in net for Tampa
Ontario: 1.91 Odds at Sports Interaction
Canada: 1.91 Odds at Sports Interaction
USA: -108 Odds at BetOnline.
Everyone Else: 1,90 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2025/03/27 8:13:54 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Wild vs Capitals:
Washington are in the playoffs but not taking their foot off the gas. They did just suffer the OT loss to the Jets. Now they head to Minnesota. The Wild are in the playoff hunt, currently in the first wild card spot. Two losses to two teams better than them standings wise.
That’s the problem. Can’t count on the Wild right now against superior opposition. Maybe they get all fired up but before that they lost to the Blues as well. That’s a serious issue for them. And their offense still struggling.
No bet.
Predators vs Blues:
Eh these two just played. Twice. Which makes it tricky. I still want to back the Blues, but that is all a concern. Especially at the 1.71 odds. Really feels like a “beggars can’t be choosers” type bet – thankfully, I do have the option of being a chooser. There’s better spots. No bet.
Flames vs Stars:
Calgary still looking to make the playoffs but it’s hard to have any confidence in that team. Yeah its a 4 game win streak but they’re stumbling there and this is a big challenge. Nothing here – but for Calgary’s sake, I hope they step up tonight. This is a big game for them and could set the road map for the rest of the season.
Kraken vs Oilers:
With Draisatitl and McDavid still out – happy to pass. I’d say “and now Skinner” but that might be a step up.
Avs vs Kings:
Two teams generally playing well over the last month. Both are in the playoffs and you just never know what to expect from this sort of game – sometimes you get that playoff heat early on, other times it’s just a wet fart of a game.
I’m obviously hoping for the former. Avs are pretty decent favourites. Unfortunately, the metrics generally agree with that. Then you have top goalie metrics over the last 10 – although the Kings is a lot down to defense – and it makes it tricky. Honestly if the Kings had a worse xGA/60 I’d consider an Avs in regulation bet here. But their defense is playing tight, and that could be a concern for Colorado.
Sharks vs Leafs:
Sharks ended their latest skid with a win over the Bruins, who are finally accepting their mediocrity. Leafs – yeah I ain’t gonna back them on the road at -1.5. Sorry.
Welcome to how the last few weeks of the season will likely go!
Thankful for the analysis Graham, despite no plays! Blues are on fire and have made me money their last 3 games, riding with that.
LA also looking like the ‘85 Oilers at the moment.. Intriguing dog.
nevermind fund it
Just to confirm its this https://www.patreon.com/sharpbaseball