Written by Graeme on Saturday, March 29th, 2025
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1-0 yesterday, as the Canes duly delivered on the handicap with a big 4-1 over the Habs.
Jets did get the win in regulation which the metrics went towards – but man that was one where I just couldn’t pull that trigger. Devils feel like an early first round exit to me.
And if you were looking for a gamble bet on a dog – hopefully you took the Ducks as I suggested, as they got the win in OT.
A “slightly” quieter Saturday than usual with “just” 11 games today.
Flyers vs Sabres:
Well the Flyers offense look to be establishing themselves again. But so are the Buffalo Sabres offense. I would freaking LOVE to take the over here – it j ust feels like it is going to be one of those games. Especially with the GA/60 for both teams over the last 10 being incredibly high.
Unfortunately – GF/60 and xGF/60 don’t all suit up (everything below 3) and that’s a dealbreaker for me. It’s just hard to go with something based on short term trends. Especially when it’s a Sat afternoon game, the line is 6.5, and there’s not much to play for.
Definitely one I’ll probably be on the over as I’ll have it on and I do think it will come in – but the data I rely on doesn’t back it up enough to go for. Like I said it’s based more on short term trends for it to go over.
Oh screw it – this is one of those where the more I look at the short-term, I like it. The Flyers offense in that Habs game had their second best xGF of the season. This is one of those where if I don’t back it I’ll be ticked off tomorrow. But fair warning – the data over the last 10 doesn’t back this up. It’s my own impulse play based on the last few results from both teams.
Sabres/Flyers Over 6.5 incl OT/SO
Ontario: 2.00 Odds at Sports Interaction
Canada: 2.00 Odds at Sports Interaction
USA: -103 Odds at Bovada
Everyone Else: 2.00 Odds at 888 Sports.
(Odds correct as of 2025/03/29 9:44:58 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Lightning vs Islanders:
Tampa with two big wins on the trot. Now THIS is the sort of short term variance which I am a lot more concerned about. I’d have to take them at -1.5. It’s borderline. At 2.10 I think there is maaaaybe the slightes value. But the Lightning seem a tad bipolar at the moment so I’m gonna pass on that one.
Avalanche vs Blues:
This is one of those “Yeah I aint touching this one” games ha. By the metrics – my god both teams GF/60 over the last bit. They are overperforming huge. Both GA/60 are incredibly low. These are two top-performing teams at the moment.
Purely by the metrics, I’d say Blues have value. But not one I can advise. I actually felt better about that Ducks suggestion yesterday than I do the Blues here.
Wild vs Devils:
Wild coming in off the win over the Caps. That was a big one. Now hosting the Devils who got grannied last night. I was really hoping the metrics would be stronger for the Wild here but they really aren’t. Only thing they have going for them is the better GA/60 really and related. Pass.
Predators vs Knights:
Pass.
Senators vs Blue Jackets:
Eh – data leans the Jackets here. They are a heck of a good price at 2.65. But man, it’s a tough one to back.
Let’s see. Jackets much better CF% and FF%. Scoring slightly less, GA/60 is the same. Jackets better xG stats, better SCG stats.
It the Jackets weren’t on the B2B, I’d take them here I think. It checks a lot of boxes. But after the hefty game against the Canucks now having to travel etc – yeah happy to pass.
Kings vs Leafs:
Kings had the humbling loss to Colorado, and will be looking to bounce back against the Leafs. I lean the Kings here but 1.71 for OT/SO is just a tad too low for me. I think I’d take them at 1.80.
Red Wings vs Bruins:
Two struggling teams at the moment. Wings are the favourites and I gotta say – by the metrics, yeah Wings in regulation looks fine.
However there is recency bias affecting it – the Bruins screwed over both myself and Scott just a couple of weeks ago with the Tampa and Panthers plays. So it’s very hard to bet the Wings here knowing that.
I did like how the Wings at least bounced back against Ottawa a bit although that was more the Sens taking their foot off the gas. In saying that McLellan talked about how gassed his own teaam were.
I can’t believe I am entertaining the thought of Wings in regulation here. But man – it checks all the boxes and I can’t seem to get myself off it.
I hate you Boston. Don’t screw me over here. You owe me after that Tampa result.
Wings in Regulation
Ontario: 1.91 Odds at Sports Interaction
Canada: 1.91 Odds at Sports Interaction
USA: -115 Odds at BetOnline.
Everyone Else: 1.91 Odds at 888 Sports.
(Odds correct as of 2025/03/29 9:44:58 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Oilers vs Flames:
Yeeeeah with Oilers injuries and the often high-variance Battle of Alberta – no thanks.
Kraken vs Stars:
Metrics actually lean the Krakens way here truthfully. But Dallas are on a bit of a tear and when you look at recent results – hard to bet them. However this would be my “dog of the day”, even with Stephenson likely out.
Sharks vs Rangers:
Sharks actually probably aren’t a horrible play here. Rangers on a B2B. Better GF/60. xG stats are a flip. Better SCGF% etc. Not one I am rushing out to back or anything – but I could see a San Jose win.
Bet365, over 6.0, -120odds… make you more comfortable with the bet?? 🤷🏻♂️ im going with it. Hahah
Yeah I am not opposed to that due to the fact that it’s less about the metrics and more about very recent form.
Does anyone in here including Scott and Graham play parlays? I know that’s frowned upon for the serious sports bettor.. I find it’s a way to negate the shitty min odds if you actually like multiple games. For example Tampa ML odds suck but when combined with 1 or 2 other games it negates all that juice.
I play about 3-4 tickets per day and typically win one to be profitable (sometimes very profitable)
Parlays can be fun to play as long as you know going in they are generally more -EV. I mean it’s hard enough in sports to win a straight bet odds dependent, never mind 4 or 5 at once.
But they can be fun. If I feel strongly about a few picks I may throw them in a parlay for for a small amount like maybe 1/4 of what I usually bet.
The “betting 3 or 4 sure things” deal at low odds generally isn’t sustainable long-term. If it was, sports books would start invoking minimum odds on it etc.
Parlays generally have their usage though if approached with a plan. Most people make the mistake of treating them like a lottery ticket betting 7 or 8 plays at once etc.
One thing I often like to do is like the $100 or $1000 challenge or whatever amount where you take say $10, bet it on something really low odds like over 0.5 goals in the first half of a random Brazilian soccer game or w/e. If you win, you take it all and bet it on something else extremely low with the hope of running it up to whatever goal you set. On slow days I often do that just for fun.
Hockey is so insane that it almost never works out for me. 2game max money line parlays maybe coin flip results. I get sucked into 50-80% profit boosts for parlays, SGP and again… usually doesnt work out for me, LOL
College basketball is the only sport i do very well on multiple moneyline parlays , in the 3-6 games under one parlay… this time of year obviously that doesnt work as only the elite are left and competition more lines up and a deeper analysis is needed to see if there is value
Hockey is extremely high variance. It’s probably the most common sport in regard to the worst team being able to beat the best team on any given night. It’s one where more than anything, I advocate single game bets as opposed to parlays due to how tricky it can be.
I’m very glad that the majority of my plays are data based these days as it takes out that emotional aspect. Flyers/Sabres right now for example is one that wasn’t really data based (not the long-term I factor in anyway) and I find myself a lot more invested in it as it’s more “on me” than the data. Which is both good and bad!
Data is king (or queen)… i can tell your approach is more about high probability and law of large numbers which is exactly where you need to be. I trade options and its essentially the same… only difference is I get to be the house with options vs sports betting.
And keeping emotions out of it… well shit… thats always a tough one, LOL