Written by Scott on Tuesday, March 2nd, 2021
Follow @BetNHL
So yesterday totally sucked. We went with two strong favourites. Both the better sides. Absolutely blown out. Just an absolutely horrendous 2nd period from the Flames. A rare big mistake too from Rittich. Brutal.
Then Hellebuyck. 3 goals in like 5 shots. Amazing. These results happen in hockey but for them to happen in both games on the same night, and in such a one sided fashion? Brutal. Let’s just move on.
After 2 days of terrible tips where we were way off we are going to take a day off of them. Below we will quickly go over a couple of the games. As I said yesterday the Pens/Islanders over was just a bad play – yesterday was more just the variance of hockey(and this season) slapping us in the face. At least it feels that way – will be going back to analyze and see if we missed anything. Always good to take a day or two off to regroup.
Yesterday just plain sucked.
Senators vs Canadiens
The Sens usually show up for games like this. The Sens may go with Joey Daccord in goal and if so it would be his first start this year and they may rally around him. More reasons to back the Sens then the Habs based on recent games between the two honestly.
Lightning vs Stars
The Lightning should win this game but the Stars have been good at home this season going 4-1-3 in Dallas.
Islanders vs Devils
Would lean towards the Islanders winning but the Devils have fans in the arena tonight so that may wake the Devils up. We saw that with Rangers/Bruins the other day.
Red Wings vs Blue Jackets
Would like to say the Jackets win but they have dropped their last 5 in a row and the Wings did beat them in overtime once already this season.
Flyers vs Penguins
No idea here. Usually good games and was leaning towards the over but with the way things have gone this season it’s anyone’s guess. Just don’t feel confident enough making a predicton here especially after the Pens last game.
TK may be back for the Flyers today, I think this may be a high scoring game. Also the Flyers have looked good (I know it was against the Sabres), but still they seem to have found a bit of a groove.
I like the over, or the Flyers to get 3/4 goals. GL all!
Crosby going on COVID list and is out tonight now, too.
Just take every under blindly…every night. It’s been pretty solid all season long. Very messed up season and definitely don’t want to be taking heavy favorites this year. Anybody offers a pick, just fade them blindly as you’ll usually get good odds on the fade as people trying to pick winners on paper getting crushed this season. That’s been working well this season too…totally unpredictable year.
I think unders have only came in about 51% of the time so it’s not like that’s really the case unless I’ve made a mistake with my data.
And honestly I don’t feel this season is AS messed up as it was. Like yeah it’s a bit weird talking about that after yesterdays two games with the Flames and Jets. But after the first few opening weeks I feel like it settled down a fair bit and we were seeing more normal results with the usual variance. I even said to Scott I wasn’t comfortable referring to it as “bizarro season” anymore as that just felt like an excuse.
I mean yeah this season is bloody messed up that’s for sure. But I think our main issue has been deciding what games to bet on etc. If I go through my leans/opinions overall for the last month that I’ve posted here and talked about with Scott, the majority of them are how the game worked out. Regardless of results with the betting tips I felt I was having a good enough grasp on the season. A lot of unexpected results – such as that Pens game on Sunday – I was able to look at in retrospect and say “yep I can see why that happened”.
In saying that yeah it is a totally messed up season. I mean now we have fans coming back to games. So what the Rangers play hot one night with fans then get drubbed the next? How the heck do we factor that in? Then of course things like Crosby being out with COVID etc.
It’s tricky. I’ve been trying to look at it as more of a challenge and it can be fun in that regard but nights like yesterday can be a tad offputting 🙂 We both woke up today and were just like yeah we don’t want to analyze hockey today.
Ya – I would say first half of season it seemed to lean overs but then I got burned on them…I’m just going every night and blindly taking all the unders. It’s been good the last week or so…I’ll let ya know how iut goes. Makes it a lot easier than trying to pick winners. Gotten pretty fun cheering for empty net misses I must say.
This is a shit season, going to bet on dogs for a while. 🙈🙈🙈
Jackets Flyers Sabres ml
Sabres?! What makes you think they will bounce back?
I think the Sabres have the talent to win any night, but have yet to prove they are capable.
Islanders
Rangers
Blue Jackets
Stars
This isn’t any real picks. More of a place for me to put down a quick thought. The plays with over 30% differential between bets and money are. NYI, NYR, van&wpg under 6, nsh&car under 6.