Written by Graeme on Saturday, March 2nd, 2024
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Alrighty I am able to type again here so that will make things easier.
I am in a rush today though with soccer and F1 starting at 10am, and I am away this weekend so they will be very abrupt write-ups. All the usual work has went into them it’s just the write-ups where I will be short.
Let’s get to it – I may skip tomorrows tips we’ll see.
Hurricanes vs Jets:
Would have to be Canes in regulation. Actually quite like it they are back on the winning track. SCGF/60 is a bit low. Goaltending has been a factor. Concerned about that Canes offense though and the Jets have good metrics. Ahhh it’s a tight one but it’s a pass but very close to Canes in reg.
Red Wings vs Panthers:
Nothing. Both too erratic for me atm.
Kraken vs Oilers:
Both too inconsistent right now.
Predators vs Avs:
Maan the Preds are crushing it right now. Big test for them here. I’m not the biggest Preds fan in terms of backing them I have to say. Looking at the matchups they have had….ah, I gotta pass. Weighted metrics bring it down.
Blues vs Wild:
Nothing.
Lightning vs Canadiens:
Nothing.
Leafs vs Rangers:
Goaltending has been hot for the Rangers lately but this is a different offense they are playing. I like the Leafs here. Taking Leafs in regulation at 2.40 odds. Leafs incl OT/So at 1.80 is fine but I did the math on empty net and overtime/shootout stats and feel including that at those odds is an -EV play.
Flyers vs Senators:
Really wanted to take Flyers here but they have some concerning metrics that make it a pass. Ottawa are showing that they are going to leak a ton a night though and the Flyers offense is looking good – well kinda. Bit inconsistent at times. A lot of the overall metrics make it a bit close.
I guess it depends on who is in net and a big help would be if Konecny is back. Sens might have Sogaard tonight. LWL has Sandstrom projected. God just too many questions I may come back and analyze this one later.
Sabres vs Knights:
Nothing.
Islanders vs Bruins:
Nothing.
Blackhawks vs Blue Jackets:
Nothing.
Stars vs Sharks:
Ahahahha have you seen those odds?
Flames vs Penguins:
Nothing. Don’t trust Calgary.
Carolina -148.
Little higher than I priced them. Also I don’t like to over react to injuries, or at least try not to, but Winnipeg’s might be concerning today.
I’m seeing Vilardi, Ehlers, Monahan, and Appleton are all game time decisions. They all might play, but it can’t be an ideal situation for Winnipeg on the road for an afternoon game vs a tough out of conference opponent.
Hellebuyck has been solid in 4 of his last 5, most of which were also on the road. Carolina has also struggled to score in 3 of their last 4 home games. Scoring just one goal in every game except against the Blackhawks.
So this game still has some concerns for me. But if the injuries are a factor, I believe this could be a bad spot for Winnipeg, considering they also play at Buffalo tomorrow. If the injuries are overblown, or Carolina’s offense continues to struggle to finish, as they have recently at home, maybe the Under was the better way for me to go.
If anything jumps out to me on the later games, I’ll try to post my plays on them as well.
Colorado Makar to score +390 might be worth a small play.