Written by Graeme on Friday, March 31st, 2023
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0-1 last night, thanks to a very disappoitning performance from the New York Rangers.
They came in on a roll, but to describe their 1st period performance as “sluggish” would be a compliment. Frustrating as everything going into that game indicated they should have been up for it.
With a quiet Friday and two games involving teams I won’t bet, I briefly wanted to touch on the over 2.5 goals system I was working on earlier this year. I’ve finally had time to analyze the data. I’d mentioned it in a few posts here back in January.
Long story short, my goal was to see if betting a team to score over 2.5 goals would be profitable, with the ultimate goal to be to work it into a parlay for a higher risk/reward. I’m personally not a fan of betting any low odds plays, although it can be profitable.
I was basing it on the following six metrics: GF/60, Opp GA/60, xGF/60, Opp xGA/60, SCGF/60, and Opp SCGA/60.
If any of them were 3 or above, it would be considered a “hit”. The system would need at least 4 hits for a play.
After analyzing the data, I’ve determined that if you get at least 5 hits, you get about an 82% win rate.
If you get at least 5 hits, AND the total of all 6 metrics is above 20, that increases to an 87% win rate. 20 seems to be the sweet spot and it drops below that.
Sample size and all that but the data does seem to line up and is over the course of a few months. Thankfully most plays are worth doing odds wise.
Based on that, I can probably bet these straight up and make a profit. So that’s my next task – albeit for next season. I will start betting straight up based on the above metrics, and then after a couple of months look at how it is doing and if anything jumps out parlay wise. Although I don’t believe it will simply because there are not enough games on a given night to hit that. Would have to be like a 6 team parlay into 5 folds and that is a situation that will rarely come up.
Yesterday for example, 3 games made the cut, not factoring in odds. Although it should have been 4 I think. Kraken were actually 6 hits but the total was 19.95 and I didn’t include it in the parlay. Of those 4, 3 of them went over. The only one that didn’t was the Bruins which is going to happen due to the variance of hockey. They did have a high enough xG in that game.
However while I didn’t factor in the odds, I think going forward I will have 1.20 as the base threshold for that. That would have meant yesterday eliminating both Bruins & Kraken from it. Bruins were 1.14, Kraken 1.18. As I gather more data, that threshold may change.
I will also factor in other metrics such as Corsi & Fenwick to see if I can improve upon that win ratio.
Finally, I will also look at being able to crack a win ratio in over 3.5 goals as well, and see if I can come up with the ideal formula with that at much better odds.
Thanks for listening to my TED Talk! Like I said I mentioned it a few times on here so thought I would follow-up with my general findings.
Let’s get on with the games.
Sabres vs Rangers:
Surprise – I ain’t touching the Rangers after yesterdays performance. They do fall into the over 2.5 system threshold, so I’ll be backing them purely based on the math to score over 2.5 goals. 1.37 odds for that.
Jets vs Wings:
I don’t bet the Jets. I don’t believe the Wings should be as big a dog as they are. I mean this team just blasted the Canes and Penguins. And the Jets are freaking trash.
I’m unable to advise it, but to me there’s enough value on the Wings to back them at 3.15 odds.
Canucks vs Flames:
And I don’t bet the Flames either. Looking at this game it’s very close – I’d actually lean the Canucks to win, and at 2.10 odds I think there’s nothing wrong with betting that. Especially with the Flames offense able to disappear at a moments notice.
Coyotes vs Stars:
The problem with the Jets vs Wings and the odds is that while it’s a value play, I do lean the Jets winning to the point I can’t advise it as a tip.
This one is a bit more interesting. Coyotes have proven to be an excellent home team. Dallas are not playing too great right now.
The metrics don’t really advise it too much. Where the Coyotes can hopefully have the edge is in the goals conceded by the Stars.
I still like the Coyotes here, but I just don’t think it’s one I can advise. Often there is something jumping out in the data that allows me to back it. Not really the case here.
So no tips tonight. Betting wise I’ll:
– Back the Rangers Over 2.5
– Probably a small bet on the Wings
– Think I’ll skip Canucks/Flames game unless I watch it live which is a possibility due to staying up for F1 Qualifying
– Am certainly going to bet something on the Coyotes.
Enjoy your Friday.
Rangers TT over 2.5?
That’s the bet the system likes yeah. Not an official tip or anything at those odds just thought I’d note it as I was writing about the system.
NYR Kreider to score +175