Written by Scott on Tuesday, March 4th, 2025
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6 games yesterday and won the tip I had.
I had over 5.5 in the Sens vs Caps game. This hit 6 giving us the win 8 minutes into the 3rd. Tkachuk scored with 1:08 left in the 3rd to tie it and force overtime. It needed a shootout to be settled and it was the Caps winning 5-4
The Panthers beat the Lightning 2-1 ending the Lightnings win streak at 8 games. The Habs won their 5th in a row beating the Sabres 4-3 in OT. The Sharks vs Leafs game needed a shootout where the Sharks won 3-2.
10 games tonight. Just having a quick glance and the odds look shitty but let’s see.
Flames vs Flyers
Flames on a 3 game skid and are 3-5-2 in last 10. They’re 11-13-5 on the road.
The Flyers are 4-4-2 in last 10 and have gone 15-13-1 at home
The Flames are in the final wild card spot in the West but the Canucks are in 9th and have the same amount of points. The Flyers are in 13th in the East but are only 4 points behind 8th so they need to close the gap.
The data is all over the place here which is making it real tough to pick a winner.
Jackets vs Lightning
The Jackets are on a 4 game win streak and 6-3-1 in last 10. On the road they’re 10-16-4.
The Lightning played last night and had their win streak snapped at 8 games. At home they have gone 21-7-2.
They have played twice this season with each team winning once.
I want to see how the Lightning respond to having their win streak snapped. Now that they are home they should have a good effort but the Jackets are on their own win streak
Sharks vs Sabres
Sharks are in last place overall in the league so there obviously isn’t any reason to back them here. They are on a 8 game skid and are 1-6-3 in last 10. Also they played last night.
The Sabres are on a 2 game losing skid and are 6-4 in last 10. They are in 29th overall and last place in the East.
With both teams so deep in the standings I cant tip either.
Predators vs Bruins
Predators continue to struggle. They are in 14th in the West, are on a 2 game losing skid and 3-7 in last 10.
Bruins are looking the the Wild with all the injuries to key players. McAvoy, Lindholm, Frederick and Marchand.
I’m passing on this game.
Hurricanes vs Wings
Canes are 4-6 in last 10 and are in 2nd in the Metro but the Devils are only 2 points back in 3rd. On the road they have gone 12-15-3.
The Wings have lost their last 2 games but are 6-3-1 in last 10. At home they are 16-13-3. They are currently in the 8 spot in the East.
Good numbers in Corsi for the Canes but the SF, SA, GF and GA goes both ways.
Jets vs Islanders
Jets are 8-1-1 in last 10 but are on a 2 game losing skid. They are still in 1st place in the Central and the League. On the road they’re 19-10-0.
The Islanders played against the Rangers yesterday and lost 4-0. At home they have gone 14-13-2. They are just a team that I find very hard to back as they just haven’t shown enough to warrant a play on them.
Would need to take the Jets in regulation on the road but the data doesn’t support that enough for me.
Devils vs Stars
Devils are 5-5 in last 10. On the road they are 18-13-2. The Devils are in 3rd in the Metro, 2 points behind the Canes and 4 points ahead of the Jackets who are 7th and the 1st wild card spot.
The Stars are 7-2-1 in last 10 and on a 2 game win streak. At home they’ve gone 22-7-14. They are in 2nd in the Central, 8 points behind the Jets and 6 points ahead of the Wild.
They played on February 22nd with the Stars winning 4-2.
Stars better CF, Devils better CA, Stars better SF/60, Devils better SA/60. It’s back and forth and I can’t find anything to push it one eay or another.
Penguins vs Avalanche
The Pens still can’t seem to get themselves going and at this point they’ll need to turn everything around as they sit in 15th in the East. They are on a 2 game losing skid and are 3-5-2 in last 10.
The Avalanche are on a 2 game win steak and are 6-4 in last 10. At home they’re 18-10-2.
Like most the the games today, the data goes both ways and can’t find a team to back here either. Would lean Avalanche but it would need to be -1.5 but data doesn’t back it enough for me.
Ducks vs Oilers
In the last 10 the Ducks actually have a better record then the Oilers.
The Ducks are 6-3-1 in last 10 and 12-13-5 on the road. The Oilers are 3-6-1 in last 10 and 18-10-2 in Edmonton
They have played twice with each team winning once.
I would lean towards an Oilers win but we would have to take them -1.5 and the odds for that are only around 1.76 which is low when taking a team to win by two or more goals.
Wild vs Kraken
The Wild are 5-5 in last 10. They are a strong road team going 21-9-3.
The Kraken are 4-5-1 in last 10 and 14-14-4 at home.
The Wild did just win against the Bruins but I find them almost unbackable at the moment. The are without Eriksson-Ek, Kaprizov, Hartman and now Brodin. So until they get healthy it’s hard for me to back them. And the Kraken are a team that hasn’t shown me anything to back them.
I have to pass on this game.
The team I’m watching the most towards the trade deadline is the Oilers. They’re Goals Against numbers are horrible and they must remedy that if they expect to make a deep run in the playoffs again. I’m not ready to bet on Oilers games in any way until after the trade deadline.
Matchup awkwardness and lingering exhaustion from back-to-backs has me off many games today.
PROPS:
Dallas – Johnston Over 2.5 shots
Calgary – Kadri Over 2.5 shots
Colorado – Nichushkin Over 2.5 shots
To WIN moneyline: Dallas and Colorado
Lean: Dallas wins puckline
New Jersey’s win/loss/win/loss pattern matches the quality of their opponents recently, and Dallas is a top tier team, so I expect the Devils to suffer the consequences. Dallas is rested and at home while New Jersey has had one day off after a back-to-back on the road and will be out of energy in the 2nd and 3rd periods. It could be a wipeout if New Jersey has a “Vegas hangover”! Young kids with free time and money, with 24/7 hot distractions everywhere. Dallas has been scoring at will, and against better teams, New Jersey has trouble lighting the goal light. Dallas has 12 powerplay goals in their last 10 games, which in NHL terms is “rare excellence”. Jersey takes a fair share of penalties, more than Dallas.