Written by Graeme on Thursday, March 6th, 2025
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Man it feels weird to be back writing tips again.
I’m a bit late posting them today as I had a LOT of data to go through for my system to get caught up.
It’s been about a month since I last wrote tips.
We had the international break obviously.
Then I didn’t want to do any tips the weekend following all that just because of potentially weird results.
THEN I was away in the USA last weekend, attending the Blue Jackets vs Red Wings Stadium Series game.
That was a LOT of fun – something well worth experiencing at last once in your life. Cold as balls though. That’s now the third Jackets home game I’ve attended, and as silly as it sounds I’m starting to become a real fan of that team. I also love the city and we’re making plans to both visit Columbus at least once a year for a game, and use them as an excuse to travel to another US city – when there’s a road game.
Here’s a couple of pics from the game – numerous beers were consumed to distract us from just how bloody cold it was. I think there were about 6 more each that we dumped in garbage cans:
Anyway yeah – if you get the chance, definitely attend one of those games. Let’s get on with the tips. I’m feeling extremely cautious here but we’ll see how it goes.
Holy shit how is it already 3:15pm EST. This has taken way too long to get everything rocking again and I’ve had a few personal issues today, so let’s just fly through these. I’ll be more prompt going forward – promise!
I’ve decided not to do any tips for these due to the time constraints I’m feeling. I won’t be able to properly research these. Just quick thoughts based on the data.
Hurricanes vs Bruins:
Canes way too heavy favourites considering their offense is sleeping at the moment. xG wise it’s a decent matchup but no way you could take them at -1.5 here.
Lightning vs Sabres:
Tampa have been crushing it before and after the break. Great time for them right now. You’d have to take them on the -1.5. It’s actually a tad risky xG wise as they are the same. It’s the GF% where things are different – but Buffalo can score.
It’s very depending on the Tampa goalie. This is where that extra time is what I need – as I need to go through their performances, as well as Buffalos performances, compare xG and various other metrics for the teams they played etc. Easily a good 30 minutes on that one and I just don’t have that time today.
Panthers vs Jackets:
I would give the odd to the Panthers over MY Jackets – but not to the extent the bookies have it. I could see them covering the -1.5 but Columbus have been feiry this season. No bet, although definite lean on Florida.
Red Wings vs Utah:
Utah had their nice run ended. Think they will bounce back here but a big test away, and not liking the 1.74 odds.
Flyers vs Jets:
Just played. Happy to pass.
Stars vs Flames:
Dalls got machine mode on. If it was in regulation I’d say take them but the odds are too low. With their xG and GA actually being worse than the Flames – that’s a concern.
Predators vs Kraken:
Neither team really standing out to me. Looking at the metrics – yeah not seeing anything really worth backing there either.
Oilers vs Canadiens:
Sorry Montreal – but COLUMBUS is my new best friend now. Oilers are a disaster at the moment. Montreal on the back of some solid performances. Honestly at 3.05 odds based on the form of both teams, I’d be backing the Habs. Even the metrics agree. So if you want a play today that is a solid value play based on my limited research here.
Avalanche vs Sharks:
Avs should take the W but the data isn’t there to back up Avs -2.5 which is the play one would have to make.
Okay – thanks for the understanding about no bets today. Good way to ease myself in. Well “ease” – I started these at 7am this morning and have been off and on at them and getting caught up etc.
