Written by Graeme on Friday, March 7th, 2025
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No plays yesterday – but pretty happy with my thoughts and leans, particularly that Lightning/Sabres game where I noted goaltending would be a huge factor for Tampa due to their GA & xGA variance. That’s why it’s important to trust overall consistency.
We’ve got a six-pack of games today so let’s get to it. One thing I am trying to decide is if I should focus on advanced metrics for the last 10, or since the break which is 6-7 games. Looking forward to them balancing out by about next week.
I think how I’ll do it is look at the last 10 first, then if something jumps out, make sure that it’s not completely off the mark since the break.
Capitals vs Wings:
Washington stumbling into this one, as are Detroit. Neither team really feeling super backable. I don’t think Caps should be as heavy favourites as they are, but despite value, I don’t see anything urging me to jump on Detroit either.
Devils vs Jets:
Another one with two teams it’s hard to really back at the moment. Definite lean on the Jets by the metrics. Any play on them would be based on their defense. But they played last night so I’ll pass. They are heavily relieant on defense and goaltending at the moment.
Blackhawks vs Utah:
Not seeing too much here. Metrics go Utahs way but they are on a B2B and happy to skip.
Canucks vs Wild:
Canucks have been very poor. Mnnesota have strung two wins together. Metrics actually go Vancouvers way but at 1.74 I just can’t see backing them.
Golden Knights vs Penguins:
Knights come in on a good run. Penguins struggling. Odds mean we can’t take Knights in regulation which I likely would – and unfortunately, I can’t go with the handicap either. Over the last 10 the numbers for the Penguins defensive metrics are too little for that, plus they do have a competitive xGF.
It’s a lean and at above 2.00 probably has slight value but not enough for me to jump on.
Ducks vs Blues:
Nothing for this one. I actually was all ready to back the Ducks on a value play until I relooked at the numbers – had totally misread the Ducks defensive metrics ha.
