Written by Scott on Wednesday, March 8th, 2023
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Was a busy night last night with 10 games for us. I had 1 tip and it was a loss.
I had the Pens -1.5 against the Blue Jackets. The Jackets were up 4-0 but they Pens tied it and Crosby won it in overtime.
The injured Leafs managed to beat the Devils 4-3 in a great game that wasn’t decided until Matthews scored a powerplay goal with less than 3 minutes left.
The Panthers picked up a big win when they beat the Knights 2-1 to keep their playoff hopes alive. The Canes beat the Habs 4-3 in a shootout.
The Lightning snapped their losing streak at 5 games when they beat the Flyers 5-2 with Kucherov and Killorn both scoring 2 and adding an assist. The Avalanche won which stopped their losing skid at 3 games and moved them into 3rd in the Central.
A nice and slow night with only 3 games. After two terrible days of tips for me I’m taking the day off.
Blackhawks vs Red Wings
The Hawks are coming off of a big win against the Senators where they shut them out 5-0. As a Hawks fan it kills me to say this but I want them to lose each game at this point. The further down in the standings they are, the better chance they will have of getting the top draft choice and Connor Bedard.
The Red Wings have dropped their last 6 games and are seeing their slim chances at a playoff spot slipping away. They are currently 8 points out and after the moves they made at the deadline it would seem like they have thrown in the towel.
Wild vs Jets
The Wild played last night and lost 1-0 after 4 rounds of a shootout. They are 8-0-2 over last 10 and are 4-3-1-0 after games played on no days rest.
The Jets haven’t been very good of late. They have gone 2-6-2 and find themselves in the wild card spot after being in 3rd for a while. They are at home here where they have gone an impressive 21-10-2.
The Wild have won both games that they have played against the Jets this season and they are on a 10 game point streak allowing only 11 goals during this stretch.
This should be a good game. The Wild have been playing so well that they will have the momentum. But the Jets need to get back to winning to get back into 3rd and with them at home where they have had success they may do that. They head out for a 3 game road trip after this against some tough teams the Panthers, Lightning and Hurricanes. They return home for a game against the Bruins after.
Ducks vs Canucks
It’s the Pacific Divsions 7th place and 6th place teams playing here.
The Ducks are 4-4-2 over last 10 but over their last 5 they are 3-0-1. It’s too late for them to do anything in the standings as they are 25 points out.
The Canucks have won their last 2 games and are 5-4-1 over last 10. They are 18 points out. The Canucks have been a better team with Tocchet as coach. Garland said “Every guy wants to play for him because (winning) is not up to three guys that feel like they’re deciding the game. Every guy has a role. It’s not like he just opens the door for guys who can put the puck in the net at a high rate. You earn what you get”. If the Canucks can continue to buy in to the way Tocchet coaches and what he expects from his players then they will be a much better team next season.
It’s tough to try and predict a game when both teams are basically eliminated. I would lean towards a Canucks win but I’m not having any tips.
Not sure yet how I’ll bet it, but I’m surprised that the bookies have Winnipeg as the favorite against Minnesota. Wild at +1.5 looks tempting as almost free money. Thoughts? The UNDER as well. Who’s going to score? Minnesota is in a 4-horse race in the Central division and can’t afford to drop. With Edmonton, and possibly Calgary getting much better performances now, Minnesota can’t afford to drop into the Wild Card race and should be fully determined to take these two points tonight. After this game they get 2 days off and then three relatively easy games, so even more motivation to take 2 points tonight, with no reservation, as part of a combined 8 points.
Looking at it, the under on Wild-Jets should make it. Both of them have played 64 games and got identical numbers on the under at 56.25%. Wild has hit the under in 8 straight. And the “feeling” says Wild win after the anticlimax last night.
So regardless of the outcome on tonight’s game, I’m not surprised they made the Jets the favorite at home.
They typically give 5 percent to the home team. So on average home to road is a 10 point swing. Even to make the Wild the slightest of favorites, say -115, puts their win percent at almost 53.5 percent. A little less than 2.5 percent of that is vig. So let’s say the Wild are 51 percent on the road. That would make the Wild 61 percent at home. Add the 2.5 percent back on for the vig and that would put them at about 63.5 on the priceline. So Wild -115 on the road here vs the Jets, would then hypothetically make them between -170 and -175 at home depending which way the book would choose to shade it. The Jets would roughly be +150 on the road then. Despite the Wild having more points, I think they factor in more heavily on Regulation wins, which the Jets currently have three more than the Wild. The Wild also just played yesterday and lost. Which was their 4th overtime in their last 6. So overtime loss, back to back games plus travel, 4 game week long road trip starts tonight, vs a team in division who overall has more wins in regulation then them. And the Jets have won 63 percent of their home games and the Wild are a .500 team on the road. I think the right team is favored as far as the line goes.
And I hope I’m not coming across as if this is forming an opinion one way or another on Minnesota +1.5 and whether there’s value in that. Especially with the recent form of both teams, and the struggles that Hellebuyck has had over the last five or so games. Just my opinion on the pricing of the line in general.
If the Jets were an underdog here at home, vs an almost equal team in the standings, on a back to back with travel, I would have to play them regardless of whether I thought they’d win or lose. It would be too much value and I’d only have to be successful about 47 percent of the time to turn a profit.
And it’s funny as far as who’s gonna score because I came up with three guys and I’m desperately trying to avoid betting any of them lol. Based on the back to back, the low total of 5.5 which is still shaded to the under, Minnesota’s tendency to play low scoring games, and the Jets overall struggles in general. The only factor I got is Hellebuyck. He’s given up 19 goals over his last 4 games with a .844 save percentage. Extremely small sample size that he could correct in this spot though.
I considered
Winnipeg Ehlers +175
I’ll probably begrudgingly bet this one. Won’t be shocked if it doesn’t come thru.
For Minnesota
Zuccarello +205
Jared Spurgeon +450
Those could easily crash and burn with a flat Wild team and a better performance from Hellebuyck. Undecided still. And of course there’s always the one man army that is Kaprizov at +110. When I watch him I realize how difficult it is for teams to have to defend him.
Ducks sucks! They are 1-7 on b2b games and their defense is terrible.
Canucks TT over 4
Canucks -1.5