Written by Graeme on Saturday, March 8th, 2025
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Welcome to Saturday. It was quite the big trade deadline yesterday, with Rantanen moving to the Stars, and Marchand going to the Panthers.
Marchand – Bennett – Tkachuk. My god.
Bruins are in full rebuild mode. It was a seller’s market with how tight the playoff race is, so a good opportunity to do it. That Coyle move was a big move for them too.
Hopefully we see a solid playoff race all the way to the end. There’s been a couple of seasons where we’ve basically had to give up tips two weeks early as teams are lacking motivation etc.
Let’s get right into Saturday.
Senators vs Rangers:
Tight one CF & FF % wise. Sens leaking more but also creating more. On an even playing field I’d give the slight edge to the Rangers – who are dogs. Good reason though as while they are barely above .500 Sens are generally a beast at home.
Huge game in the wild card race. Based on the Sens results coming into it though, it feels like Rangers are handling the race a lot better. Sens will be playing with a heavy heart with Norris gone. Best move long term for sure.
Trying to talk myself into a Rangers play today, but I just can’t fully get there. I like how they have performed overall here.
I’m so freaking close. Everything has shown Rangers to be the better team. In a high pressure cooker game, they look the better side to handle it. Gah. I’m just looking at their results and a bit worried about how they face off against adversity with how they lost to the Caps.
Flyers vs Kraken:
Philly on a down spin at the moment but solid favourites against the Kraken, who are having some high scoring games lately.
By the metrics, it definitely goes Phillys way. Enough to take them in regulation? Hmmmm. Definitely a good spot for them. No shame in losing to the Jets. More shame in losing to the Flames.
Buuut – this is where you have to factor in that they aren’t going for the playoffs. Couple of decent losses to the side. Makes things tricky. In a vacuum, I take the Flyers in reg here.
Lightning vs Bruins:
I feel like we’ll be looking to bet against the Bruins a fair bit here eh. I mean the team is basically advertising that they should be known as the Boston Tanks for the rest of the season.
Tampa on a hot run – like I said against the Sabres, covering the handicap can be wild as it’s down to goalie variance.
However the the Bruins offensive metrics are pretty poor, and about to be poorer so that hopefully shouldn’t be a factor.
I feel like this will be a popular bet today and just gotta go with it – Lightning -1.5. As mentioned, the only concern is the Lightnings goalie variance because their defense is NOT doing the job. Actually have a worse CA/60 and FA/60 than Boston. Massive concern that but you have to think it won’t factor in here.
Ontario: 1.87 Odds at Sports Interaction
Canada: 1.87 Odds at Sports Interaction
USA: -114 Odds at BetOnline.
Everyone Else: 1.86 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2025/03/08 10:06:59 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Panthers vs Sabres:
Panthers on a solid run and looking to win the cup again you can see. This one is a bit similar to Lightning -1.5 against the Sabres. Panthers relying heavily on their goalie, although the xGA isn’t as bad as Tampas.
Sabres outscoring them over last 10, but Florida a solid 3.7 since the break.
And actually looking at that – their xGA/60 since the break is fantastic at 2.38. I was focusing on the last 10 data. 2nd best other than the Blues. Yeah this has to be a play.
Panthers -1.5
Ontario: 1.95 Odds at Sports Interaction
Canada: 1.95 Odds at Sports Interaction
USA: -105 Odds at BetOnline.
Everyone Else: 1.95 Odds at 888 Sports.
(Odds correct as of 2025/03/08 10:06:59 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Flames vs Canadiens:
I think the Habs actually a little bit of value here. But not enough for me to back.
Avalanche vs Leafs:
Avs on a nice run, Leafs coming in off that loss to the Knights. Leafs offense is volatile enough at the moment I’m wary of backing anything in regard to them. The last two games are a concern for sure.
Predators vs Blackhawks:
Preds with two wins in a row, looking to beat up on a third weaker team. Blackhawks been performing well though and I ain’t touching Preds -1.5. Both teams have such mental differences in GF/60 versus xGF/60. Blackhawks 3.35 GF/60 and 2.32 xGF/60 since the break, while the Preds 2.5 GF/60 and 3.43 xGF/60. Nuts. A big high variance factor there making me happy to pass.
Kings vs Blues:
Feels like these two teams just play each other all the time now. Is there no other teams in the NHL? Maybe third time lucky for the Kings. Who knows. Who cares!
Oilers vs Stars:
Oilers not really a backable team at the moment, and Stars could spell danger for them. Buuuuuuuuut it is the Oilers, and Stars just dropped the ball at home to the Flames there. They have been a concern at the moment especially with how much they’re conceding.
Pass. There have been points the last couple years where the Dallas machine is an automatic bet but their team isn’t at that spot for me right now.
Sharks vs Islanders:
I mean by the metrics – the Sharks are actually kinda better. After a long, looooong road trip – finally at home. Unfortunately they are 9-18-2 at home. Islanders are .500 on the road. They’re without Brock Nelson – will that affect them with his long stint finally over, or will they be out to prove something?
Islanders of course still in the playoff hunt. Beating the Jets was impressive and nice send off for Nelson.
Why am I writing so much about this? The Sharks have been ripped apart ha. Sometimes it’s hard to get past the metrics at times (even though with how many have left they aren’t really applicable anymore).
Pass.
