Written by Graeme on Sunday, March 9th, 2025
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1-1 yesterday.
The loss was the Tampa Bay Lightning to cover -1.5, as they got absolutely blasted by the Bruins. Results like that are frustrating because there’s absolutely no way to see that coming. I could travel back in a time machine to yesterday morning, and still not be able to justify to you guys “Oh yeah take Bruins -1.5 this is a banker”.
The Lightnings xGA has been terrible which was a concern – but this was just a through and through horrific performance by the entire team. Dumb goals, no energy. There’s variance in hockey, then there’s just crap like that. Nothing you can do but it’s frustrating as all hell.
Thankfully, Florida had no such problem as they covered easily to make it almost a break-even day.
Let’s look at Sunday:
Flyers vs Devils:
Philly with the big loss to Seattle yesterday. Devils though coming off their bad home loss to the Jets. Their metrics are piss poor at the moment and I don’t see it worth backing anyone.
Wild vs Penguins:
Minnesota coming off that loss to the Canucks. Looking to bounce back against the pitiful Penguins.
I actually thought this would be a pick for the Wild – but it is NOT. Gut says yeah they take it, but bad odds, worse GF/60, much worse xGF/60, worse xGA/60. Oh wow yeah this is an easy stay away for me.
Capitals vs Kraken:
Washington coming off their big 5-2 win over the Wings. Kraken with that nice win over Philly. Hmmm – I don’t mind Washington here but the data isn’t enough for me to back them in regulation – especially considering just one regulation win in their last 6.
Hurricanes vs Jets:
I like Carolina here but the odds are a bit too low for me.
Rangers vs Jackets:
Raners coming off that tough loss to Ottawa. I couldn’t back them yesterday as I wasn’t sure they were up to the challenge – and now two losses in a row, this could be another ball drop moment. The Jackets have better xGF but worse GA/60 and xGA/60. Honestly if Jackets were say 2.25 I’d take them at 2.10 there’s no value.
Knights vs Kings:
Knights on a tear looking to avenge their loss against the Kings from a couple of weeks ago. LA finally take a break from their best of 77 series against the Blues to face another team.
Yeah I mean I like the Knights here despite the lat time these two played. Knights are playing well, at home, really look like they are in their groove. Kings have been uninspiring and I mean this is a team that were just getting blowing out recently on the road.
Checks enough boxes for me.
Knights in Regulation
Ontario: 1.91 Odds at 888 Sports.
Canada: 1.91 Odds at 888 Sports.
USA: -113 Odds at Bovada
Everyone Else: 1.91 Odds at 888 Sports.
(Odds correct as of 2025/03/09 11:20:05 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Canucks vs Stars:
Canucks with two wins in a row, hosting the Stars. Not really feeling the Stars here after a tough game yesterday.
Ducks vs Islanders:
Metrics actually go more of the Ducks way for me but not a team I really want to back.
Little to bet on today. Typical Sunday back-to-backs, which does leave Vegas looking good. LA just can’t find the net while Vegas does easily, and Vegas has great defense going on. Against Vegas and tired, on the road, LA can logically be expected to suffer a puckline loss.
To WIN moneyline: Vegas
Lean: Vegas puckline win
Betting on sports is a funny thing. All the games you had a slight lean on hit and the official tip was no where close. Variance is real!
Thankfully glancing back at my thoughts yesterday, I wouldn’t say all the games I had a lean on hit and I didn’t feel strongly about the others but I know what you mean – I’ve had days like that in the past and it can be really frustrating.