Written by Graeme on Wednesday, May 10th, 2023
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Well, the Devils couldn’t quite repeat their previous series.
They were pretty decent favourites yesterday, but got absolutely blasted by the Hurricanes 6-1.
That series goes back to Carolina now where you have to think it’s close to being over.
The Dallas Stars tied up their series with the Seattle Kraken, with a big 6-3 win. Oettinger still didn’t look hoo hot out there, but the Stars offense with Max Domi in particular came alive.
Loved to see that from Domi.
We have two games tonight, and a potential elimination alert as the Panthers host the Leafs.
Panthers vs Leafs Game 4 Betting Tips:
Scott: Well I guess getting past the 1st round was a win for the Leafs.
They haven’t looked good at all and if they get swept then there should be a shake up as with the team they have they should be better.
Sure the Panthers had to fight to get into the playoffs but I haven’t given them the respect they deserve. They beat the record setting Bruins in round 1 and now have the Leafs on the ropes. And Samsonov left the game so if he isn’t back or 100% then the Leafs are in even more trouble.
No Bet
Graeme: Panthers still being underdogs at home after the way the series is gone is quite amusing.
Backs against the wall for the Leafs. Can they show up tonight? There’s a large part of me that thinks they do. To prolong the agony. Maybe they want to lose in Toronto, crush the home fans that bit more.
I’m not going to bet this one. I do still believe the Leafs are capable and I thought they were quite unlucky in the first two games. Although they easily deserved to lose in Game 3.
Let’s have a look at the metrics for this series anyway. In 5 vs 5, Panthers have been the best team in pretty much every category. xG has balanced out now too.If we do that with SVA then yeah same deal.
All scenarios sees a different story, with the Leafs offense performing better in most categories except actually scoring goals. Of course some of that is probably inflated by their empty net situations where they really seemed to amp things up.
I think based on pure data, the Panthers at 2.00 are probably fine to play. I’m going with No Bet though. Last chance for the Leafs, and the top 6 are really ridiculous and with all the shit they have been taking, you’d think they will actually try and step up.
Oilers vs Knights Game 4 Betting Tips:
Scott: These teams have traded wins so far.
After the Oilers won with ease 5-1 in game 2 the Knights returned the favor in game 3 by the same score. Brossoit had to leave with an injury early in the game and Hill came in and stopped all 25 shots he faced. The Knights used 5 different goalies during the regular season so the team is okay with this.
With game 4 in Edmonton I expect the Oilers to tie the series with a win. But the Knights are a good road team going 26-7-8 and have gone 3-0 this postseason.
No Bet
Graeme: Well that game on Monday was a bit of a surprise. An absolutely horrible performance from the Oilers. They played well for the first 10 minutes and then just flatlined.
They’re better than that. And my gut feeling is that they can come back tonight and win in a convincing manner.
The metrics are a bit difficult to gauge due to the extremes of Game 2 & 3 in particular. In 5 vs 5, Knights certainly been the better team. An SCGF/60 of 3.88 to 0.86? YIKES. When we factor in SVA it doesn’t really change too much either.
All situations it changes somewhat and not overwhelming in the Knights favour anymore. But those 5 vs 5 metrics are not good.
Straight up – by the metrics, I don’t think one can bet the Oilers here. So this isn’t a data play. But I do think they will bounce back – especially after a performance like they loaded up in Game 3, and take this game to the Knights.
Personally, I’d love to see them give Campbell a go this game. But either way, I’m going to go with Oilers in Regulation.
Ontario: 1.86 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Canada: 1.86 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
USA: -125 Odds at Bovada
Everyone Else: 1.86 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2023/05/10 6:45:34 AM EST but are subject to change.)
To WIN moneyline: Florida
Lean: full game UNDER 7.0: Oilers/Knights
Penalties play a core role in how the score goes in the Oilers/Knights series. Explosive offenses typically, but the total hasn’t been getting high, and hovering at 6, flip-flopping, tells me it could drop as we approach the end of the series. Not likely taking this total or side. No props when this happens. Edmonton SHOULD deliver a much better performance tonight, but Vegas will be there to win.
Toronto’s top 4 offensive players haven’t been showing ability to take the next step up on offensive opportunity making in the playoffs, like Bennett and Tkachuk do for Florida. They aren’t the type. Zero goals so far, tells the story. While I’ve seen Tavares and Nylander take the initiative on offense quite often in this series, they’re reminding me of Johnny Gaudreau and how with the Flames for years, Gaudreau would lead the rush but have next to nobody working with him, and he’d get shut down and there’d be a turnover. The Leafs are at the end of this year’s road, they can’t be who they aren’t. The Panthers have their own plans and control this result.
The Leafs haven’t scored more than 2 goals in a game in their last 5 games. Florida has scored at least 3 goals in their last 6 games, and usually more. Florida didn’t take a penalty in the last game, which tells a lot about what kind of a serious threat the Leafs are.
Leafs are done. Free money on Panthers
Free lost of money. Typical Leafs haha