Written by Graeme on Thursday, May 11th, 2023
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The Oilers duly delivered last night, with a big win over the Vegas Knights. Betting wise, this is my best playoffs in recent memory.
It’s always nice to see a team pick themselves up like that after a beating. Of course they had no choice. If they lost last night that would be over for them. Now they head back to Vegas, hoping to carry that momentum.
The Leafs were able to get the win over the Florida Panthers, to extend the series somewhat.
That game actually reminded me of a few Panthers performances when they were pushing for a playoff spot. In particular, the April 4th game against the Leafs. Where it was a must-win game and they bottled it. It put me off betting them the rest of the season.
I don’t think either team played that great last night. Certainly not the type of performance Toronto should have thrown in. But a win is a win. Some battles in that one. Bennett is such a greasy bastard, but also such a difference maker in th is team. That was a fun brawl at the end.
Two games tonight as the Hurricanes host the Devils looking to wrap that series up, and the Stars host the Kraken.
Hurricanes vs Devils Game 5 Betting Tips:
Scott: The Hurricanes were down 1-0 but stormed back and scored 6 unanswered, 5 of them in the 2nd, and won 6-1.
With the series now in Carolina it’s hard not to have confidence in them to win it at home where they have gone 4-1 these playoffs.
After Vanecek got pulled in the last game they might go back to Schmid who lost his last 2 starts against the Canes.
But the Devils have nothing to lose here and will be going all out. And with the Canes having forced the Devils to pull both of their goalies they are capable of keeping pace with them goal wise.
Over 5.5 incl OT
Ontario: 1.81 Odds at Sports Interaction
Canada: 1.81 Odds at Sports Interaction
USA: -120 Odds at BetOnline.
Everyone Else: 1.80 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2023/05/11 7:46:57 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Graeme: I was surprised that the bookies had the line as 5.5 last time, but they’ve went back to it again for this potential finale to the series.
Canes did have a tighter finale against the Islanders when they won 2-1, but Islanders were a different team and trickier. All four games so far have went over 5.5 goals.
It’s what makes the playoffs weird. While each bet during the regular season is independent, it’s a lot more incestuous when it comes to the playoffs. Due to winning that last over, it kind of puts me off betting this over and giving the winnings straight back.
With that game, the metrics have balanced out a bit. Devils goalscoring has dropped for the series. Canes has grown of course. I dunno – looking at the metrics I’m a bit wary of this one. They all suggest a battering by the Canes of course. I’m going to go beyond this series and look at the entire playoff data.
Looking at that, Devils are underperforming offensively when it comes to actually scoring the goals. Crucial game for them so will their offense step up?
I dunno. I’m going to sit this one out. It’s just giving me weird vibes. I could see a super tight game, I could see what the metrics suggest which is a solid win for the Canes, but I can’t rule out one of those “oh hey we’re the Devils and just got blasted so gonna randomly batter this team”.
By the metrics, the over 5.5 is a fine play. It’s just one I’m not fully feeling today. It’d be different if the games hadn’t been so lopsided. No Bet
Stars vs Kraken Game 5 Betting Tips:
Scott: The Stars tied the series up with a strong game 4. The Stars held them to 5 shots in the 1st and another 5 in the 2nd.
The Kraken are one of the highest scoring teams in these playoffs which is pretty incredible considering who’s still in.
These teams have traded wins up to this point. With this game back in Dallas you would think that the Stars have the advantage but the Kraken have gone 4-2 on the road in the postseason.
No Bet
Graeme: Big win for the Stars in Game 4 to tie it up. The Kraken didn’t play too bad, but the Stars were on another level with yet another mental 2nd period.
I’m actually going to do two more casual bets on this one, as opposed to anything serious. Before I do that, I will look at the metrics of course.
Based on the metrics for this series – both teams outscoring their actual chances created. Kraken by a LARGE amount and that has to regress. But both have high SCGF/60 of above 3. Even the 5 vs 5 metrics are superb offensively. I would give the Stars the edge, but not a massive one. I also think that over is a decent one – the only concern is whether the Kraken offense can keep overperforming.
If we look at the playoff metrics, Stars are the better team in every category, and the data balances out somewhat. Kraken still overperforming although their xGF at least rises there.
Again, I’d say based on the data Stars should win this but it’s still a bit tight. But they would be the best bet by the metrics. Looking at overall playoff data, I don’t like the over as much.
Anyway the two bets I am making tonight are:
Kraken to win incl OT
Ontario: 2.70 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Canada: 2.70 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
USA: +166 Odds at BetOnline.
Everyone Else: 2.70 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2023/05/11 7:46:57 AM EST but are subject to change.)
I’ve went on about how I feel betting for or against the Kraken is like a coinflip. Well, time to put my money where my mouth is and we’re getting great odds on that. Honestly that’s my only reasoning. During the regular season, I shied away from the Kraken as they were one of those teams where the data just didn’t really matter it seemed. It’s spots like this where you think they have no chance, that Dallas look like a great unit, that they can seemingly pop up.
And also:
Highest Scoring Period = 2nd
Just based on the small sample data so far. These two for whatever reason go off in the 2nd period. It’s not really one of those things I’m going to back up with the numbers though. But overall in the playoffs, period 2 is where the Stars score the most and concede the most, and ditto for the Kraken. Then you look at the odds and it’s like why not?
Ontario: 3.80 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Canada: 3.80 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
USA: +245 Odds at Bovada
Everyone Else: 3.80 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2023/05/11 7:46:57 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Like I said, these are two more casual bets because hey it’s playoff time and it’s all about fun and I actually feel the odds on both are fine. If you’re looking to bet seriously, I’d probably pass on this game myself as while I lean Stars to win, I don’t think the odds make it worth it.
Full game OVER 5.0: Seattle/Dallas
Lean: to WIN moneyline: Carolina
Carolina has the recent warmup series to instruct them to take this series ASAP, and tonight they do. Carolina also lost a game in this series, so they won’t be smug about anything. Too many problems with New Jersey right now to see them controlling how this game goes.
I see that the last Carolina game had a notable drop in shots for both teams. Too bad the UNDER 7.0 isn’t available. This being a possible elimination game, a league trend is an UNDER result, and a 7 or UNDER has been the result 18 of 20 of these two last 10 games each, combined. Not toying with the 5.5 or 6 though. I think we still see at least 5 goals. Both team’s powerplays have gone dry in this series.
Kraken/Stars. Most recent game had a lower shot total, yet the goal total was 9. Series now tied, even with some potential tightening of defense (Seattle being a newer team, perhaps open style prevails tonight), at least 5 goals seems good with the results that have been happening and the relentlessly fast style of play. I don’t know how this game could drop to 4 goals or less. Penalty totals have been low in this series, so hoping to see results continue from a good hockey game. Staying out of the penalty box really helps Seattle retain leverage.