Written by Graeme & Scott on Sunday, May 16th, 2021
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The playoffs are underway!
The Bruins vs Capitals Game 1 was last night, and went to overtime with the Capitals pulling out the win.
It was a very tight game and the Bruins will be the more frustrated team at not being able to take advantage of Craig Anderson thrown in net.
They really didn’t capitalize on that at all.
An off game for the Bruins and they will hope to get going again in Game 2.
We’ve got three Game 1s taking place today, so we’ll hop right into our series predictions for them.
Penguins vs Islanders Series Betting Tips:
Scott: The Penguins won the season series 6-2 with two of the games needing extra time.
The Islanders are a good team that are one of the best defensively in the league. Their defense will be put to the test in this series with Crosby, Malkin, Carter and Guentzel.
The Penguins and their fans will remember when these teams played in 2019 and the Isles came away sweeping the series. The Pens learned from that series and will be ready.
The Penguins won the East Divison and can’t be overlooked. This postseason may be the last chance for the Pens with their core not getting any younger. If healthy their team is one of the deepest in the East.
Penguins in 6
Graeme: By the advanced metrics, Penguins are a team I feel I can take with confidence. It’s pretty simple – as long as they play good, they’re going to win.
It’s a shame that the Islanders lost Anders Lee. If you look at their stats prior to the injury and after the injury it is a big difference.
Varlamov was solid all season but did struggle against the Pens.
Trotz is one of those coaches I really respect. You can never count the guy out. Look at 2019 for example.
Overall though I just feel the Penguins are the better side, will use home ice advantage, and will take this one.
I think Pens to win the series odds are generally playable, but I would go with more value here as I also think Penguins take it in 6.
Our combined pick is Penguins -1.5 for the series.
Canada: 2.40 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv.
USA: +135 Odds at Bovada.
Everyone Else: 2.40 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv.
(Odds correct as of 2021/05/16 9:35:29 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Knights vs Wild Series Betting Tips:
Scott: The Knights tied the Avalanche for points in the West and the league but it was the Avalanche whi earned the tiebreaker with five more regulation wins.
They are a stacked team. Stone and Pacioretty are amazing and they also have Marchessault and Karlsson. On defense they have Theodore, Martinez and Pietrangelo. In goal is where they shine. Their tandem of Fleury and Lehner just won the Jennings Trophy.
The Wild had a good season and got great performances from some youngsters. Kahkonen was great in goal and Kaprizov led the team in scoring. They have depth throughout their lineup.
The Knights are a deep team and I expect them to go on a run in these playoffs and have to be considered one of the favorites to win it all. The Wild won the season series 5-3 so they can best the Knights but I just don’t see it happening.
Knights in 5. Based on the odds, Knights -1.5 is the play for me.
Canada: 1.86 Odds at BetOnline..
USA: -115 Odds at BetOnline..
Everyone Else: 1.86 Odds at BetOnline..
(Odds correct as of 2021/05/16 9:35:29 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Graeme: The Knights are very solid favourites here against the Wild. The story going into this one is whether the Wild have the Knights number or not, with comparisons to the Warriors and Mavericks.
I spent some time looking into the advanced metrics for this one for the matchups and they basically summed it up; Knights were the better team with Corsi and Fenwick in practically all games. However that didn’t matter – Wild were able to find the holes in the Knights defense. They were able to rack up the higher xGF, HDCF etc and of course mostly get the results.
I agree with Scott about the Knights, however I do think this will be a tough test for them. The Minnesota Wild seem to be a bad matchup for the Knights.
It honestly won’t surprise me if the Wild pull off the upset. Just looking at the metrics between the two teams, I can’t count out the Wild pulling off a few wins.
I’m going to go with Wild +1.5. Overall I think Knights are the better team and will win the series, but when I look at the games between the two it’s really hard to discount that.
Canada: 1.95 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv.
USA: -115 Odds at BetOnline..
Everyone Else: 1.95 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv.
(Odds correct as of 2021/05/16 9:35:29 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Panthers vs Lightning Series Betting Tips:
Scott: This is going to be a great series.
The Panthers finshed with 79 points and the Lightning 75. The Panthers were on fire to end the year winning their last 6 games. The Lightning limped to the end losing their last 3.
They played each other 8 times with the Panthers winning 5 of them.
This is going to be a close series. The Panthers were the better team during the regular season but the Lightning are the defending Stanley Cup Champs so they know what they are about to get themselves into.
I wouldn’t be surprised if this series goes the distance. I just can’t overlook the injuries to the Lightnings roster. Stamkos and Kucherov were out but look like they will be back for Game 1. How much rust they have is anyones guess but the Panthers are rolling and should jump on the Lightning early.
Panthers in 6 although will play it safer with a good price and take Panthers to win the series due to Stamkos and Kucherov starting Game 1.
Graeme: Advanced metric matchup wise it is very similar to Capitals vs Bruins. Panthers were generally the better team although that didn’t always reflect in the results.
What that all says is it is very close. Tampa will be boosted by both Stamkos and Kucherov apparently in the Game 1 lineup.
As Scott said – rust can be an issue. It could also be the boost Tampa need.
Honestly with Stamkos and Kuch in there – I’ll be cheering on Tampa. Love to see that sort of thing and I hope they just blast the Panthers.
But I just don’t think we can discount the Panthers who have rode Tampa hard this season. I think as underdogs, they are certainly worth the bet at this price. I probably wouldn’t take them at 2.20 or below.
Panthers to Win The Series
However due to the return of Stamkos and Kucherov, we advise that we go with the safer play of Panthers +1.5 instead especially considering the closeness of these matchups. We don’t hate the Panthers to win the series bet if you want to take that extra risk though.
Canada: 1.66 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv.
USA: -160 Odds at BetOnline..
Everyone Else: 1.66 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv.
(Odds correct as of 2021/05/16 9:35:29 AM EST but are subject to change.)
