Written by Graeme on Wednesday, May 18th, 2022
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The second round of the NHL playoffs are underway, and we saw some interesting results.
The Panthers succumbed to the Tampa Bay Lightning in Game 1. Tampa gave them a 4-1 thumping.
The Blues managed to take the lead against the Avs, and held on until overtime before finally losing. That was an insanely dominant game by the Avs regardless of the result, and it’s tough looking at that seeing how the Blues will compete.
Let’s turn our attention to the two series that start tonight. We’ve got Hurricanes vs Rangers in the East, and Flames vs Oilers in the West.
Of course the more important fixture today is the Glasgow Rangers match, as they take on Frankfurt in the Europa League Final. Alas I made the decision not to head to Seville and am regretting that when watching all the videos of the Bears today. Although with the nervous nausea I have today maybe it’s for the best. Bring it home lads.
Rangers vs Canes Series Predictions:
Scott: The Canes survived their series against the Bruins winning in 7 games.
Their point leaders through the 1st round are DeAngelo and Slavin, both defensemen. They are deep though with Trocheck, Teravainen, Aho, Jarvis and a recently woken up Domi.
In goal is their problem. Andersen is still out so they have been starting Raanta and he got them through the 1st round.
The Rangers got by the Penguins in what was a great series where 2 of the 7 games needed overtime. Zibanejad led the team with 11 points, Fox had 10 and Copp, Kreider and Panarin all had 7.
Shesterkin had some hiccups during the 1st round. At times he looked amazing but he also had games where he looked bad.
The played 4 times during the regular season and the Canes won the season series 3-1.
This will be another good series. Based on the regular season games the Canes should win but its the goalies here that should be the difference. Raanta will be the starter and he had trouble with the Bruins and the Rangers are better offensively than them so they could light him up. But Shesterkin showed that he can have off games too. The Canes aren’t as offensively strong as the Pens so he could have a strong series.
Tough to call this one they were #1 & #2 in the Metro but despite the series going to 7 against the Pens the Rangers are a good team.
Rangers win series
Ontario: 2.80 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Rest of Canada: 2.80 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
USA: +180 Odds at Bovada
Everyone Else: 2.80 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2022/05/18 9:45:37 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Graeme: The Hurricanes struggled more than expected against the Bruins, but considering they were able to do it without Andersen is very impressive. Rawanta was still solid with a lower GAA than his XG.
It’s really looking like Freddie won’t even be able to play for the entire second round which is just sad.
Looking at the advanced metrics the Hurricanes weren’t their usual dominant force in the Bruins series that we often see. That’s a bit of a concern. The New York Rangers also had a lot of issues against the Penguins and if it wasn’t for the Crosby injury, likely wouldn’t be here.
They let up a scary amount of high danger chances. They concede a lot on them as well. The good news is the Canes were very poor at converting those in the playoffs. The bad news is that the Canes had the 3rd best HDCF/60 in the league during the regular season, where there’s far more data.
Ultimately I think that will be the big factor – the Canes will get those high danger chances and be able to convert. Even with Shesterkin standing on his head, the Penguins still got the goals past him. I expect similar from the Canes. Looking at the regular season, the Canes had high HDCF conversion against the Rangers. They did also concede a lot of HDGA which is concerning. This is a series that should see a lot of goals.
I think the Canes have had a series to get used to Raanta in net. I feel the Rangers were fortunate. I like the Canes to take advantage of the high danger chances and Canes win the series. It’ll have to be -1.5 due to the odds. Personally I’ll be looking for player props involving guys that score high danger goals.
So like tonight I’d be looking to bet the likes of Jarvis at 4.00 odds to be anytime goalscorer.
Anyway here is the odds for Canes -1.5:
Ontario: 2.00 Odds at 888 Sports.
Rest of Canada: 2.00 Odds at 888 Sports.
USA: -105 Odds at Bovada
Everyone Else: 2.00 Odds at 888 Sports.
(Odds correct as of 2022/05/18 9:45:37 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Flames vs Oilers Series Predictions:
Scott: The Flames barely got by the Stars in what was a tight first round. The Flames big guns were kept in check against the Stars with Gaudreau leading the way with 8 points. Tkachuk had 6 and Lindholm 5. Markstrom was OK despite the series going 7 games.
The Oilers survived some mistakes and won their series against the Kings. McDavid does McDavid things scoring 14 points through 7 games. Mid-season pickup Kane has been a great fit for the Oilers and he has 7 goals and 9 points which matches Draisaitl. As always when talking about the Oilers the big question is goaltending. Smith had a decent 1st round and will need him to continue that play and stay healthy.
The played 4 times during the regular season with each team winning twice. There was an average of over 8 goals a game over those four.
It’s the Battle of Alberta and its always a fun game to watch and now we get to see at least 4 of them in a row. This could turn into a really rough series as it goes on.
With the Oilers always having troubles with their goalies I have to take the Flames to win this series
Flames in 6. Flames -1.5
Ontario: 2.00 Odds at 888 Sports.
Rest of Canada: 2.05 Odds at Bovada
USA: +105 Odds at Bovada
Everyone Else: 2.00 Odds at 888 Sports.
(Odds correct as of 2022/05/18 9:45:37 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Graeme: I was really disappointed in the Flames offense throughout that series but then I look back at it all and across the board, Oettinger was just phenomenal in the advanced metrics.
The Stars defensive metrics were similar to the Oilers metrics in round 1. Slightly worse. So it really did come down to Oettinger. The Oilers of course do not have the same level of goaltending. Although fair play to Mike Smith as when you look at the metrtics, he did an excellent job.
Initially when this series was made, I thought I would be backing the Calgary Flames. But seeing tte lopsided odds has me temped on the Oilers. Their ability to get the goals is phenomenal.
Flames WERE more dominant in the advanced metrics by a good long shot in 3 of the 4 regular season games last season with the other being 50/50.
Man – this is a head vs heart one. My head says the Flames take it. They were struck by excellent goaltending in that Dallas series. Plus Dallas are a tough cookie. Oilers struggled against the Doughty-less Kings. They basically relied on McDavid going into superman mode. They don’t have the goaltending.
But the other part of me says that man it’s the Battle of Alberta – anything can happen. Passions will be riding. It’s a lot closer due to that.
I think on paper, Flames -1.5 is the right play. But you throw in the emotion of this battle and the fact that it’s the playoffs? I’ll take a shot on the Oilers. Not like they haven’t let me down betting wise a bunch over the years. What’s one more?
Oilers win the series
Ontario: 2.70 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Rest of Canada: 2.80 Odds at BetOnline.
USA: +180 Odds at BetOnline.
Everyone Else: 2.80 Odds at BetOnline.
(Odds correct as of 2022/05/18 9:45:37 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Full game Over 5.0: Canes and Flames games
Lean: Flames win Game 1 moneyline
Maybe take some Flames offense prop bets for Over 0.5 pts. For sure, the goal count will go up in the Flames/Oilers game, likely gravitating to 5.0+ rather than the Oettinger-inspired lows of Round One. We might see a 7-5 game, who knows.
Both the Canes and Rangers can score and be scored on, that series also gravitating to good goal counts, which the books will likely react to for Game Two and beyond.
St. Louis is going to give Colorado tons of problems. I think the Battle Of Alberta will be played as a fast skill game rather than a crunch game as it was in the early 1990’s. The game has changed a great deal since then. I think the Rangers are far better than the books are indicating. The Tampa/Florida series I can’t predict much yet. I think Florida the better team.
See attached pdf summary of all Round 1 games.
Sorry Graeme, tough loosing on the lottery of penalties. The wounds of Frankfurt loosing on penalties against Chelsea 3 years ago were finally healed with this win.
I’ve been a Frankfurt supporter since 99… So i am happy! But what insane accuracy on those penalties… I think 3 were off the post and in?
Hope Rangers win the cup this weekend.