Written by Graeme on Monday, May 1st, 2023
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Well I hope many of you took the Florida Panthers yesterday for that sweet 3.00 payout as they deservedly beat the Boston Bruins, in Boston, in overtime.
What a performance from the Panthers.
It was the day of the dogs, as the Kraken also got the win over the Avalanche. Incredible. The bottom 6 did not show up for the Avs the entire series, and that was one of the biggest factors in that loss.
The Panthers will face off against the Maple Leafs, and the Kraken will face off against the Stars. I’m looking forward to getting into all the advanced metrics for those.
But we have one more game, before we move on. The New Jersey Devils host the New York Rangers in Game 7 tonight.
Here’s our thoughts:
Scott: It’s hard to predict this series.
The Rangers won the 1st 2 games then the Devils won the next 3. In game 6 the Rangers won 5-2 and the Devils pulled Schmid after he allowed 5 goals after stopping 80 of the 82 shots he faced in the previous 3 games.
The Rangers couldn’t beat Schmid over the 3 losses but now that they have figured him out the Devils can’t go back to Vanecek as he lost both games he started.
With the Rangers going 2-1 in New Jersey so far and having the momentum after winning the last game I have to go with what I originally called and that was a Rangers series win. I thought they would win in 5 games but it looks like it will be 7.
Rangers win incl overtime
Ontario: 2.00 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Canada: 2.02 Odds at BetOnline.
USA: +102 Odds at BetOnline.
Everyone Else: 2.02 Odds at BetOnline.
(Odds correct as of 2023/05/01 6:54:25 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Graeme: I said before that series began, that this was a series of two extremes. The Rangers offense, and the Devils defense. Who would win out?
The thing is – there has really been no balance between them. We’ve seen 3 games where the Rangers offense won the game in glorious fashion. Then 3 games where the Devils defense and goalie stifled the Rangers to win their games.
It’s a pure 50/50 situation as it does seem one of two things will happen – either the Rangers offense shows up big again, or the Devils D does the job.
There is no value for me based on the odds, with the Rangers at 2.00 and the Devils at 1.83. As what I am saying is based on the 6 previous games – either Rangers will blast them, or Devils will stifle them. No in-between. No balance.
I’m staying the heck away from this one from a betting standpoint. Based on those extremes, if you’re going to bet you want to look to back one of those extremes.
Like I would either be looking at something like Rangers Over 3.5 goals at 3.10 odds or 4.5 at 5.75 odds, OR Rangers under 1.5 goals at 3.85 odds. That sort of thing – to back either extreme situation happening.
At a quick look at the metrics – in 5 vs 5, Devils offense overall better but just not scoring the goals. In all situations, it’s the same way. The 5 vs 5 metrics are mental. 2.96 xGF, but just 1.05 GF and 0.84 SCGF.
If I was an oddsmaker I’d make the odds exactly what the bookies made it today.
No Bet for me. But like I said if I were to bet, I’d be looking at attempting to back at least one extreme or maybe either side.
Lean: full game UNDER 6.0
These two teams switched identities after Game 2, in terms of # of shots on net. When the Rangers win the total was over 5.5. Both teams have had games in this series with a lot of penalties, but I don’t see penalties getting out of hand again. They’ll be terrified of taking penalties and officials are letting a few more of the very minor infractions go in the interests of letting the play continue as long as it’s still (cough) fair.
I have no idea which version of these teams shows up tonight in terms of offensive shots on net, so that affects every betting option. I can easily see situations arising where mad flurries around the net happen, which could drive up the goal count quickly. The Rangers offense, if they show up, can be a real tornado.
The UNDER (a high total) seems a little more likely due to it being a Game 7. The two OVER 5.5 Game 7 results we’ve seen so far included teams who gravitated to high scoring all season. Florida found a way to rip open the league leading Boston defense. Boston being the only team with less than 200 goals against this season. Tonight, these two usually have excellent defense and it’s the playoffs. I don’t see yet what would convince me to make this bet.
Had a great few bets last night across sports. One of them was over 6.5 incl OT on Bruins – Panthers, the other was, thanks to y’all, Panthers incl OT. What an amazing game! I was really enjoying that one!
The night looked incredible until the last game, when the Avs let me down 🙁 I had a feeling, but I couldn’t imagine both the Bruins and Avs being out already. Though it happened!
Tonight I think the Rangers will take it in regulation. I don’t think the game will go to OT.