Written by Graeme on Wednesday, May 1st, 2024
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The Toronto Maple Leafs, minus Matthews, were able to make it to Game 6 with a tight 2-1 win in OT. Swayman thwarted them quite a few times but Woll also stepped up big and helped them with the W.
Interestingly, by the metrics it was probably the Leafs best offensive game.
The Nashville Predators got a win over the Canucks to keep that series going. The Avs got the win in their series, which Scott called. I went with Winnipeg, but changed my mind after Game 1 and was on the Avs twice the rest of the series to turn a profit, so all good.
The Canes wrapped up their series as well 4-1. Scott called that one with Canes -1.5. I lost with Islanders +1.5 and actually only made one bet the entire series, which was a player prop I won to end up at -0.10u. I’ll take it.
Let’s look at tonights two games:
Stars vs Knights Game 5 Betting Tips:
Scott: So the road teams have won each game of this series.
It’s been a close series and the Stars have to take advantage of the home crowd or this goes 7 games and the Knights will win. I picked the Knights to win the series so I’m fine with that.
With the way this has gone I follow the trend and take the road team here.
Knights win incl overtime
Ontario: 2.35 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Canada: 2.40 Odds at GT Bets.
USA: +140 Odds at GT Bets.
Everyone Else: 2.40 Odds at GT Bets.
(Odds correct as of 2024/05/01 11:43:48 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Graeme: The metrics actually swung the other way in some spots in Game 4 which was interesting, as the Knights had a better Corsi and Fenwick. But the Stars are still showing their abilities and their xGF/60 that game was incredible. The Knights played a bit looser and got punished for it.
Stars have shown overall they are the better team. They’ve overcome their hoodoo, and I’m happy to back ’em. I’d rather back them to include overtime but the odds aren’t there. And it’s one of those where if they lose that’s fine I’ll just stay away the rest of the series.
Stars in Regulation
Ontario: 2.10 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Canada: 2.10 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
USA: +104 Odds at Bovada
Everyone Else: 2.10 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2024/05/01 11:43:48 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Oilers vs Kings Game 5 Betting Tips:
Scott: It was the Skinner show in the last game when the Oilers won 1-0. Skinner made 33 saves for the shutout win. The Oilers had only 13 shots on goal which is unbelievable.
With game 5 back in Edmonton and the Oilers winning the last 2 by a combined scored of 7-1 I like them to get this series over with here.
Oilers win in regulation
Ontario: 1.90 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Canada: 1.90 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
USA: -116 Odds at Bovada
Everyone Else: 1.90 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2024/05/01 11:43:48 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Graeme: Should be a good spot to run this one out for the Oilers I’d say. At least in theory. But the metrics are starting tobe a wee bit concerning. The Oilers are ocnverting better but Kings metrics, especially after that last game, are pretty damn high.
Oilers were fortunate in that one. That’s gonna frustrate the Kings. If they can’t get a goal early I dunno man that could be it. I do think we’ll see a fast and furious opening here. I’m passing on this one. No Bet.
The Oilers will put the clampdown on and win this. The question remains whether this game is low scoring, average or high scoring. That affects the ability to consider props. My guess is the goal count rebounds from the low in Los Angeles and scoring gravitates back to normal levels, and will likely end up near 6. So who are the core point generators? This is an elimination game, so the Kings will push hard for the full 60 minutes, presuming they will never see a 2 goal lead (or higher) during this game.
Bouchard: Over 0.5 Points
Kopitar: Over 1.5 Shots
Strong Lean: Arvidsson Over 1.5 Shots
I looked at props for other top players but didn’t like the game style VS point/shot production requirements.