Written by Graeme on Sunday, May 21st, 2023
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Well I’m glad I took that “draw no bet” caveat, because it came in quite handy last night!
The Hurricanes were pretty darn dominant over the Panthers but Bobrovsky put in a great performance. The Canes could not get past him after that early goal (well, with a legal goal), and Florida were able to pull it off in OT.
The Canes also are starting to struggle to finish, and it’ll be worth looking at the over/under on shots in the next game. Have to wonder if they start to get desperate there.
We have hockey every single day this week which is nicw. An early one today, with Stars at Knights Game 2 taking place at 3pm EST. As Beard Meats Food would incoherently say, let’s get it!
Knights vs Stars Game 2 Betting Tips:
Scott: Well game 1 of the Western Conference Finals needed overtime but only 1:35 worth.
Robertson opened the scoring, which snapped his goaless streak at 8 games. Karlsson scored twice for the Knights and Benn tied it at 3 with less than 2 minutes remaining. Howden won it for the Knights.
This was the 3rd time in 4 meetings between these teams that the game needed extra time to be completed.
This was an even game as the score will show but even the shots were close with the Knights outshooting the Stars 37-36.
The Stars have lost the 1st game in overtime in all 3 rounds of these playoffs and in the 1st two rounds they won game 2.
With how close game 1 was and with the Stars in familiar grounds this postseason I like their chances here.
Stars Win incl OT
Ontario: 2.05 Odds at 888 Sports.
Canada: 2.09 Odds at BetOnline.
USA: +109 Odds at BetOnline.
Everyone Else: 2.09 Odds at BetOnline.
(Odds correct as of 2023/05/21 6:52:05 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Graeme: I wasn’t super impressed with the Stars in game 1. Thought their offense was a bit meh, and looking at the xG that seems to be the case. Money puck has them at 2.22 and fairly flat. A lot of low scoring chance attempts.
I’m not a fan of the odds here at all. Stars at about +100 and yeah I could see this being coinflip odds.
What Dalls have going for them in these playoffs, is that they have never lost two in a row. They’ve bounced back from every loss, including their two game 1 losses.
So is that enough to back them today?
I was tempted to dive into home vs road metrics, but I’m going to go a different route. I wasn’t a big fan of that Stars offense and the chances they took, but they were still able to get 3 on the scoreboard.
The bookies are being nice and generous with the over 5.5 today. That feels fine to me. Both teams for the playoffs have GF/60 above that, and GA/60 right at that point. xGF/60 for both teams is above 3 as well as is SCGF/60.
If a goalie steps up so be it, but I like Over 5.5 Goals in this game.
Ontario: 1.90 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Canada: 1.93 Odds at BetOnline.
USA: -107 Odds at BetOnline.
Everyone Else: 1.93 Odds at BetOnline.
(Odds correct as of 2023/05/21 6:52:05 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Tie in regulation
Full game OVER 5.0
I think this game gravitates to 5 with variance pressing to the higher side. It wouldn’t surprise me though, if this game ended lower. It’s only Game 2, but late playoffs defensive play comes into play at some point. Far too early for a close-down. Vegas isn’t the type to be intimidated or quit. They could win this.
Over the last 10 games of these two teams combined (all playoffs), 18 of 20 were 5.0 or higher, and 11 of 20 were 7 goals or higher. I like how Vegas is fast and highly skilled, and the previous game’s overtime didn’t go more than a few minutes. These teams will be fully energized. Dallas interviews mention how they regret starting slow, but I think the goal scoring will be, while more balanced early in the game maybe, to match average patterns.
Tie in regulation is the only side option I see worth putting money on, probably low units. 3 of 3 Round 3 games have been Tie in regulation, so what the hell.
I can’t see that Dallas is superior here, as some regular season stats indicate, because this is the playoffs, and the motivation and focus is far higher than in the regular season, which now draws out possibilities. Vegas is playing very well and completed Rounds 1 and 2 in one game less than what Dallas went through, so they should have less fatigue and a few less severe play-through injuries nagging their performance.
Florida must be thinking of closing their series fast, to get lots of rest before the finals. If so, they’ll also need to, after that nutcase Game 1 with 4 overtimes. Both teams will be more recovered and I’d expect Florida to take Game 3 tomorrow, a parlay option for adding in today. Carolina just doesn’t seem to have the finishing touch so far, while Florida does. I don’t blame Florida goaltending for that.