Written by Graeme on Wednesday, May 29th, 2024
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The Rangers and Panthers continue to put on tight matches, with another overtime period required in that series.
Florida tied that one up at 2-2 now.
We now head to Edmonton for a very important game 4. Edmonton are 2-1 down in that series, and really don’t want to be heading to Dallas with a deficit.
Here are our thoughts:
Scott: The Oilers jumped out to a 2-0 lead and held that until the 2nd where the Stars came alive scoring 3 unanswered. The Oilers held the Stars to only 3 shots in the 1st and kept them off of the board. In the 2nd the Stars put up 17 shots and scored 3 times.
Henrique returned for the Oilers after missing 7 games and scored to tie the game at 3-3. In the 3rd the Stars kept going with Robertson completing the hat trick and they added an empty net to win 5-3.
I don’t know what’s going to happen in game 4. The Oilers know if they lose this game then they go back to Dallas on the brink. But the Stars are going to be flying knowing the have a chance to move on at home and they scored 3 goals in 3:33 which is a franchise playoff record so momentum is on their side. I would lean towards a Stars win but again Oilers at home with a chance to tie the series.
No Bet
Graeme: I mean it sounds pretty simple doesn’t it? Edmonton just have to play a full game. They had one strong period and then kinda switched off it felt like.
Their odds to win including overtime are fine – but my concern is how close a lot of their results have been. Two of their wins over the Kings were 1 goal. Three of their wins over the Canucks were one goal. Even their Stars win was in double OT.
By the metrics, the Oilers have been the overall better team in the series but it is close.
Honestly, I don’t know if it’s a good bet or not. I think it may be -EV. But I’m going to go with Oilers incl OT. I think they’ll have a better game here. There’s no real data to back it up – just yep I think we see a better Oilers tonight.
Lean: To WIN moneyline: Oilers
McDavid OVER 3.5 shots + Bouchard OVER 2.5 shots both reasonable. The goal count could go 3-2 or 5-4, so I’m not sure of other props. Dallas and the Oilers are spreading their offense around, I can’t see much else clearly.
I’ll go out on a limb with this observation: Dallas may be showing signs of accumulating playoff fatigue. Maybe they skated their reserves out against Colorado. Holding the Avs to 1 goal in three playoff games requires a great deal of fast skating, and must be very psychologically draining as well.
The Dallas shot count has been steadily dropping in the last four games ►38, 33, 25, 22. Yes, the play has been tightening up, and the Stars goal count has been increasing. The Oilers are fairly stable around 30/game. The penalty count is low for both teams, so this will likely be determined by 5-on-5 play. ZERO powerplay goals in this series so far. What the Oilers need to do is make a couple quite minor adjustments to scatter the Stars offense and give their goalie clear views of simple shots, and get more animal in getting players to the Stars net, without taking penalties (and draw more penalties too!).