Written by Graeme on Monday, May 2nd, 2022
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Hello everyone and welcome to something we have been waiting for for what seems like forever – the NHL Playoffs.
As is always the case for the NHL playoffs – unlike the regular season, we don’t confer on the tips at all. Instead we give our separate opinions. (Any we agree on are included in the stats for the playoffs). This allows us to give more betting tips and analysis, and is a lot easier from our side of things.
We will discuss each series, give our prediction on what team will win and in how many games, then give you the best betting odds for that at the online sportsbooks we recommend.
Then we will provide daily tips from Game 2 onwards.
We have four series kicking off on Monday, May 2nd and then four more on Tuesday May 3rd so we might as well split them all up into two posts.
We’re going to do something a bit different where Scott will focus more on a general preview, and Graeme will focus more on the advanced metrics side of things.
Hurricanes vs Bruins Betting Tips:
Scott: The Canes finshed in 1st in the Metro with 116 points and the Bruins were in the 1st wild card spot with 107.
The played 3 times during the regular season and the Canes won all 3 by a combined score of 16-1.
The Canes have a bunch of stars but no real superstars and they are a team that is so deep that they can run 3 lines and still get results which makes them a hard tesm to defend. Aho, Svechnikov, Trocheck, Niederreiter, Teravainen and Jarvis are all years who can chip in offensively. Staal, Domi, Stepan and Kotkaniemi are strong depth players who skate in the bottom 6 which just shows how deep they are. They are the best defensive team in the league allowing only 2.44 a game. Slavin, DeAngelo, Skjei and Pesce are their top 4 with Cole, Bear and Smith filling the final 2 spots. Freddy Andersen had an incredible year and Raanta is a great backup who can start if needed.
Their top line is incredible and will go a long way if they are to have any success. Bergeron, Marchand and Pastrnak are a perfect fit and have great chemistry. Hall, Haulage and Coyle are good players who can chip in. And although he requested a trade, DeBrusk still scored and is valuable to the Bruins. McAvoy, Carlo and Lindholm give them 3 great defensemen and plenty of options with Grzelcyk rounding out the top 4. Swayman and Ullmark split starts with Swayman putting up better numbers and he should be the starter for the playoffs.
I think the Canes depth at forward will be the difference in this series. During the season they had no trouble beating them so that should continue in this series. But the Bruins are a tough team to play against and they could make this a good series. But with the way the Canes played this season I have to back them to win.
Canes win in 6
Graeme: As Scott said, it was very dominant performances by the Canes in terms of results. But how about teh games themselves? Well the metrics are pretty mental. When the Canes won 7-1? They only had an xGF of 2.38 in 5 vs 5. The 6-0 victory? xGF of 1.72.
If we go by all scenarios then that’s where we see it rise. 3.11 and 3.27. Now some of that is a bit skewed in that if you score 5 goals in the first, you’re not going to rack up as many chances in theory later in the game as the losing side is going to be pushing.
By the advanced metrics, it was Bostons goaltending that let them down. That 7-1 game on January 18th though was more the defense who gave up a whopping 10 high danger chances in 5 vs 5, and the Canes profited off that with 4 goals. It’s quite interesting too as Boston gave away the least HDCA the entire season. Unfortunately for them, the Canes have the 2nd best HDCF and HDGF% so basically – they capitalize on it.
Funnily enough the Panthers were the #1 team for high danger chances but Boston beat them 2 of the 3. Blues also up there and both games were quite close.
It’s going to be similar I think – Boston just don’t have the goaltending to stop that. They’re going to have to attempt to outscore the Canes but that will open things up for them that much more. This is a series where overs are going to be key.
I think the Canes will punish them greatly in this series. These type of games are where they are at their most dangerous and they always capitalize. I’m going with Canes in 5. To be honest a sweep wouldn’t surprise me.
Combined Bet – Hurricanes to Win the Series – although with Andersen out, it may be best to wait on that. If Bruins take the lead in the series and he is confirmed back, good chance for extra value. Our predictions were written before he is out and until we know he is back, wouldn’t bet. But this is the official play
Ontario: 1.90 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Rest of Canada: 1.90 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
USA: -110 Odds at Bovada
Everyone Else: 1.90 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2022/05/02 7:40:11 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Maple Leafs vs Lightning Betting Tips:
Scott: The Leafs finshed in 2nd in the Atlantic with 115 points and the Lightning in 3rd with 110.
They played 4 times during the regular season with each team winning twice. The most recent was a 8-1 Lightning win.
The Leafs are a strong offensive team and are due for a long playoff run. Matthews, Marner and Tavares are incredible. Nylander, Kerfoot and Bunting round out the top 6. Spezza, Simmons, Kase, Blackwell and Engvall are sold depth pieces. On defense they added Giordano and Lyubushkin who will strengthen a long considered weakness. They join Reilly, Muzzin and Brodie to give them their best defense group in years. Campbell is their starter and if he catches fire then they could go on a run. Kallgren is the backup until Mrazek is healthy
The Lightning are full of playoff experience as they push for a three-peat. Stamkos, Point and Kucherov will do the heavy lifting for them on offense. Palat, Hagel, Killorn and Cirelli give them the depth needed and Perry and Maroon are smart vets who can still chip in and be pains in the ass to face in a series. Hedman is a beast and he is joined by Sergachev and McDonough to give them a solid top 3 on defense. Vasilevskiy is superstar and can take over a series. The salary cap did force them to move some players from last years squad but they have enough left over to still be considered a threat.
This should be a great series and a high scoring one. I really want the Leafs to win. Sure it would be great to see a team win three years in a row but the Leafs never get past the 1st round. The Lightning have played a pile of hockey the last 2 seasons and they are missing some key pieces thanks to the salary cap. I wouldn’t be surprised if this went the distance but I’m going with the Leafs.
Leafs win in 6 possibly 7 – Bet is Leafs Win the Series
Ontario: 1.86 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Rest of Canada: 1.86 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
USA: -115 Odds at Bovada
Everyone Else: 1.86 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2022/05/02 7:40:11 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Graeme: I mean let’s be honest we don’t really need advanced metrics to discuss the Toronto Maple Leafs, do we? We know what their issues are. In 5 vs 5, 5th best xGA/60 in the league, 11th worst GA/60 in the legue. Says it all right there. 9th best HDCA/60 in the league but 5th worst HDGA/60.
They just don’t have goaltending.
Now Campbell was was the main at the start of the season. I hoped when I dived into his stats I’d see something to explain it but there really isn’t anything.
Based on the 4 games between these two so far – the chances will come a-flying for both sides. Always high xG games and high as heck Corsi. It’ all pretty much balances out over all 4 games.
This will be a very tight series. If the Leafs can somehow capture the magic in goaltending again, then they absolutely 100% take this series. No doubts about it. I really hope they do.
But looking at the odds – I think it makes mathematical sense to go with the underdogs.
Lightning in 7 – Bet is Lightning Win the Series
Ontario: 2.10 Odds at 888 Sports.
Rest of Canada: 2.10 Odds at 888 Sports.
USA: -105 Odds at BetOnline.
Everyone Else: 2.10 Odds at 888 Sports.
(Odds correct as of 2022/05/02 7:40:11 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Wild vs Blues Betting Tips:
Scott: The Wild finished in 2nd place in the Central and the Blues 3rd.
They played each other 3 times during the regular season and the Blues won all 3.
The Wild are led by Kaprizov who has Eriksson-Ek and Zuccarello who has been great scoring over a point per game. Their 2nd line is a huge pain in the ass to play against. The Wild got a breakout season from Hartman and he is joined by Foligno and Fiala. The top 2 lines will do all the heavy lifting for them but they do have some others in the bottom 6 who can contribute. On defense they are good with Spurgeon, Dumba, Brodin and Goligoski. Where the Wild really shine is in goal. Talbot is technically the starter but they acquired Fleury from the Hawks and he is money in the postseason and having 2 number 1 goalies is a luxury.
The Blues offense is solid. Tarasenko had a great year and O’Reilly is a strong playoff performer. Thomas and Kyrou has great seasons to add depth. They also have Schenn, Buchnevich, Saad and Perron to give them the abilty to run 3 lines. For the 1st time in a long time the Blues aren’t led by their defense. They have Parayko, Faulk, Leddy and Krug who are good but are getting older and the longer they stay in the postseason it may catch up to them. In goal Binnington had a down year but Husso was their to claim the starter role and did a good job.
The Blues won the Cup in 2019 so they have that going for them but I like the Wild to win this series. They are a tough team to play against with guys like Deslauriers, Foligno, Hartman, Duhaime and Middleton willing to do the hard work and take pressure off of their skill guys. And their goaltending is far better overall then the Blues.
Should be a good series and I think the goaltending will determine the outcome.
Wild in 6 – Bet is Wild to win the series
Ontario: 1.66 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Rest of Canada: 1.66 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
USA: -145 Odds at GT Bets.
Everyone Else: 1.66 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2022/05/02 7:40:11 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Graeme: Blues got the results against the Wild in the regular season, even when they weren’t at their best. In that 6-4 game on New Year’s Day for example, Blues had an xGF of just 1.86 to 3.7 but won 6-4. Of course that was the Winter Classic and you can generally write that off. Blues did have a higher Corsi in all three games although it was all fairly close.
Blues also impressively had a lower PDA in all three of those games at 0.934, 0.36 and 0.939. PDO is basically luck factor.
Basically I look at the advanced metrics data and I feel like getting the Blues at the price they are is a gift. This seems me a very 50/50 series and I’m happy to go with the dogs here.
Blues in 7 – bet is Blues to win the series
Ontario: 2.35 Odds at 888 Sports.
Rest of Canada: 2.35 Odds at 888 Sports.
USA: +130 Odds at Bovada
Everyone Else: 2.35 Odds at 888 Sports.
(Odds correct as of 2022/05/02 7:40:11 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Oilers vs Kings Betting Tips:
Scott: The Oilers finished in 2nd in the Pacific and the Kings 3rd.
They played 4 times during the regular season with the Oilers winning 3 of the 4.
The Oilers are led by the best player in the league with McDavid and Draisaitl is right there with him. After those two the numbers drop off but they still have decent players throughout the lineup. Kane was a nice pick up for them and he produced at almost a point per game. On defense they are OK with Bouchard, Nurse and Barrie and having Keith there with all of his playoff experience will help too.
Biggest issue the Oilers have is in goal. They missed addressing this in free agency. Smith has been playing great but for how long he can keep that up is anyones guess. Koskinen is another goalie who is streaky.
The Kings are ahead of schedule in their rebuild. They don’t have a player as offensively gifted as McDavid or Draisaitl but they have some depth. They are, as always, led by Kopitar who continues to produce despite him being 34. Kempe doubled his career best in goals this season and Arvidsson and Moore can chip in. One huge question is on defense. Doughty is out and is expected back but not sure exactly when that will be and once he does will he be able to jump into playoff hockey after missing so much time. Quick had a good bounce back season and they will need him to stand on his head if they want to have a shot in this series.
With McDavid and Draisaitl the Oilers can, and should, walk all over the Kings as long as one of their goalies can play well enough to keep the Kings down.
I like the Oilers chances here. They are too stacked to have another disappointing season. I’ll give the Kings one game but wouldn’t be surprised if it’s a sweep.
Oilers win the series in 5 games
Graeme: The Oilers are fairly heavily favoured in this series at about 1.42 odds. They won three of the four games despite not being dominant in the advanced metrics department.
The deal with the Oilers is really that they haven’t been that great in the matchups with the Kings but they have some incredible offensive players to get them over the line.
Despite the Oilers goaltending woes, in the three victories the Kings had a better xGF in 2 of the 3 in 5 vs 5.
If we look at overall stats with 5 vs 5, the Kings are actually better in a lot of the advanced metrics.
The one big issue is Doughty being out. That is a big loss for the Kings. In saying that when you look at their results for the seaso – it wasn’t a massive impact or anything. Kings had a pretty decent finish to the season as well.
I was hoping there’d be good odds on this one to go to 6 games with the expectation that Oilers crush, but there really isn’t. I’ll say Oilers win in 6.
Combined Bet: Oilers -1.5 for the series
Ontario: 1.83 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Rest of Canada: 1.83 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
USA: -130 Odds at Bovada
Everyone Else: 1.83 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2022/05/02 7:40:11 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Perhaps due to the regular season scoring counts going up over the long-term average, and the limited supply of top tier goalies, we can expect some teams to continue relying on offense to try to win, leaving the “OVER” trend active in the first round. Risky: playoff hockey always involves tightening up on defense and a disciplined fear of taking penalties, but some trends are fundamental to their teams.
Leans:
St. Louis Team Total Over 2.5
Minnesota Team Total Over 2.5
Carolina game: Third Period Over 1.5 goals
Full game OVER 6.0: Tampa and Toronto
Full game OVER 6.0: Blues and Wild
Second Period OVER 1.5: Oilers/Kings
Leafs rely on waves of offense, and that opens them up, which Tampa will capitalize on. Tampa has been taking a lot of penalties, which Toronto would convert to red lights. I think Boston is in tougher than the general stats indicate; they may be pressed to play over their head from the start, and if so, that rapidly creates problems. Blues and Wild are two very good teams, I can’t predict what’s going to happen there longer-term. Minnesota is really impressive this year. That game could go 5-4 or 2-1, really no idea.
Best of luck everyone, tread carefully!
Bruins in 4 games. Canes suck ass in playoffs.