Written by Graeme on Friday, May 7th, 2021
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A 1-2 night.
The Oilers pick is one that in retrospect, I regret. At the time I was just looking at the similarities between Oilers and the Hurricanes. But thinking about it – their focus was less on winning and more on the McDavid points goal. As it is – if it wasn’t for that insane opening to the game, things might have been different.
4 goals in 4 shots. Hockey is something else. 0 saves, 0 save percentage. Great job Kosk.
Another one I regret is the Bruins – I should have said hey even though we aren’t doing unit sizing, please take a billion units and bet it on them to win in regulation. I had strong expectations for that game and it went exactly as I expected.
7 games tonight let’s look through them all. See if anything jumps out.
Lightning vs Stars:
I just can’t see the Stars making the playoffs. Feels like they have blown it. I think Tampa are a great, great bet tonight.
I just don’t think they can do the business. They can’t beat the big teams. It’s still mathemetically possible but I think their playoff hopes end here tonight in Tampa.
I just think it’d be irresponsible to back against Dallas tonight, purely based on their circumstances. But I feel confident enough betting Tampa tonight.
Capitals vs Flyers:
Flyers offense has been fairly livelly lately. I expect Caps get the job done. Following on from that Rangers game though – not sure how things will go. I do think we’ll see team unity and them sticking strong.
I assume they care about the division so you got that motivation as well.
After that last game – I think it’s easy to skip this one. A lot depends on the Caps motivation. I do like them in regulation here too though.
Jackets vs Red Wings:
Here’s how the advanced metrics go – better team on the night wins. That’s pretty much it. It’s been very even and flip floppy. Wings are probably razor thin valuey at 2.25.
Wild vs Ducks:
Expect Wild to get the job done but would have to be handicap and no thanks.
Kings vs Avalanche:
I actually don’t hate the Kings here at this price. Just can’t justify it though.
Knights vs Blues:
Knights come in stuttering. Likely get the win and look to finish the season strong but with the Blues form lately – no thanks.
Sharks vs Coyotes:
Sharks probably win.
So that’s really it. No official bets/tips and not sure there will be until playoffs begin.
I’ll be backing both Tampa and Washington in regulation myself. Wings are very small value but I don’t think I can back them. The Sharks are probably a team I’ll have a flutter on myself.
Can I just go to sleep and wake up on the first day of the playoffs please.
Play-money options tonight:
1) Minnesota at +1.0. They’re coasting into the playoffs, likely nothing available to gain or lose in the standings now, but they’re not quitting, play Anaheim again tomorrow, so won’t want to lose tonight. Anaheim is weak, but not a quitter. So being cautious.
2) Full game UNDER 6.5: Wings/Jackets.
3) Full game OVER 4.5: Sharks/Coyotes.
4) Higher risk LEAN: Dallas to WIN. Dallas should be VERY optimistic about their chances for the playoffs, IF they beat Tampa tonight. Then they play Chicago twice, a far easier task. Their fence to jump over, Nashville, plays Carolina twice, so two losses there is highly likely. Carolina is 7-0-3 and 20-3-5 at home!
Best of luck with the remainder of the regular season. Stay healthy!
Good to see you still paying attention. I think it’s important to do so – reason I keep analyzing each day – going into the playoffs. Get a feel for what teams are ready to go etc.
And hey thanks for all the comments lately – this season hasn’t got the interest from prior seasons based on traffic, comments etc so that’s much appreciated.
Thanks @betnhlca:disqus I blew it on the Oilers and Bs too.
Tailing on the Bolts, even with McElhinney in net they are by far the better team. By the way, his L2 GAA were 1-0, granted they were against Detroit and Columbus but aside from a couple of stinkers he’s kept the Bolts in every game he’s started.
Over Caps-Flyers – even with the injuries I think the Caps have enough firepower score 3-4 and the Flyers will be playing spoiler. It’s going to be a loose game because nothing is at stake with plenty of goals. O/U between these teams in 2021 is 5-1
Over 5 Red Wings – Blue Jackets – Both teams are playing for pride and the Blue Jackets have really stepped up their game L5 with two Ws and 3 OTs. Red Wing games in L5 are 0-5 O/U but BUT the Blue Jackets are starting Matiss Kivlenieks who hasn’t seen NHL action for 404 days. Torts is basically giving him a bone for all his hard work this year. He did okay in the AHL but NHL talent is another level. Prop: Vranta to score.
In AHL action I like Belleville and Laval to go over.
GLTA SDBB
“Nothing is at stake…” in the CAPS/FLYERS game?!? There is actually a tremendous amount at stake….the DIVISION & HOME ICE!!!
I wouldn’t touch Tampa with McE personally.