Written by Graeme on Tuesday, May 7th, 2024
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One game in and I’m already furious at myself for not being able to back Boston.
A brutal result for the Panthers in what really seemed like a fairly even game. Ekblad with an absolute nightmare of a game. With it being such a big result, it’s going to make Game 2 very interesting. Bruins smell blood.
We have one new series starting today with the Stars vs Avs, and then the Rangers vs Canes Game 2.
Rangers vs Hurricanes Game 2 Betting Tips:
Scott: The Rangers beat the Hurricanes 4-3 in game 1. Zibanejad had 2 goals and an assist in the win.
The Canes were down 3-1 after the 2nd period and the Canes managed to get within 1. The game got off to a fast start with both teams scoring in the first 4 minutes of the 1st period.
The Canes will have to cut down on penalties as the Rangers scored twice in the powerplay but game 1 was a good close one. The Canes would love to tie the series up before it heads to Carolina for games 3 and 4. They don’t need to panic yet just do what has made them successful and go from there.
Canes win incl OT
Ontario: 1.83 Odds at Sports Interaction
Canada: 1.83 Odds at Sports Interaction
USA: -118 Odds at BetOnline.
Everyone Else: 1.83 Odds at Sports Interaction
(Odds correct as of 2024/05/07 10:10:26 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Graeme: First there was an HTML issue in my series prediction for this one, so you may want to go back and read all that. All it seemed to post was “Rangers to win Series” without the write-up. I’ve fixed that now.
In short, I felt Rangers should be underdogs but not as heavy as they were.
In Game 1, Canes were the usual juggernaugt in advanced metrics. Yet again, Rangers managed to keep the Canes xGF low at 2.67. Both teams capitalized on their high danger chances.
The quantity of goals scored was a bit of an anomaly. In saying that, you have two offenses who were hot and burying everything. I’m fine backing that to continue into Game 2 with the line as low as it is. All it takes is one early goal from either hot offense to open the game up.
Over 5.5 goals
Ontario: 2.00 Odds at Sports Interaction
Canada: 2.04 Odds at BetOnline.
USA: +104 Odds at BetOnline.
Everyone Else: 2.04 Odds at BetOnline.
(Odds correct as of 2024/05/07 10:10:26 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Stars vs Avalanche Series Betting Tips:
Scott: The Stars beat the defending Champs the Knights in 7 games.
They have a good mix of young players and veterans. Johnston leads the way with 7 point, Heiskanen and Robertson have 5 and Seguin, Dadonov and Benn all have 3. They’ll need Pavelski, Hintz, Duchene and Marchment to start producing.
The Avalanche beat the Jets in 5 games.
This is a fast team that controlled the play for a majority of the time. MacKinnon, Rantanen and Makar all have 9 points, Lehkonen has 8, Nichushkin has 7 which were all goals and Mittelstadt has 6. All of their big guns were on display in the first round.
This should be a good series. The Avs are more rested having only played 5 in the 1st round. As good as the Stars have been, not only in these playoffs, I just feel the Avs are the better team. Oettinger is the better goalie but the Avs have enough weapons to make his life miserable. Plus the speed this team plays at will be hard to keep up for some of the older Stars players.
Avalanche win series
Graeme: Alrighty let’s look at the advanced metric data for the regular season first. Corsi was all generally close, same with Fenwick. xG bounces around a bit. The big one was the Avs capitalizing on high danger chances in their games.
For regular season reference, Avs had the 6th best HDCF (Stas were 5th) and 3rd best HDGF (Stars were 2nd). Those are interesting as it indicates a bit of variance there. Stars actually had 2nd best HDCA while HDGA they were 12th (Avs were 6th worst).
So what does that all tell me? Just based on that, the Avs can take this series if they capitalize on their high danger chances. Stars do give up a few. However the data for the Avs is actually very concerning because while the Stars didn’t do as well with the high danger goals in the matchups – if they are able to do so in this series, they look likely to take it.
So now onto the playoff data with HD a big focus. Both teams Corsi & Fenwick is similar in the playoffs. The Stars better defensively and goaltending while the Avs are slightly more rocky there. But the Avs have the sick SCGF of 4.2 compared to Stars 1.51. Whether that’s sustainable against a much better defense though is up in the air.
Both teams generated high danger chances at a top rate (Avs 3rd, Stars 4th), but the Avs were the #1 team at converting them while the Stars were 11th.
In short, the Stars NEED to get the high danger goals going and be consistent with them. They’re going to get the chances but they just have struggled to convert.
And I don’t think that they can. Unless the Avs offense goes ice cold, I think they should be able to take this and Stars won’t be able to hang with them.
Avs win series
Ontario: 2.00 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Canada: 2.05 Odds at Intertops.
USA: +105 Odds at GT Bets.
Everyone Else: 2.05 Odds at Intertops. / GT Bets.
(Odds correct as of 2024/05/07 10:10:26 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Carolina vs Rangers Under 5.5 -130
Rangers were successful on the Power Play in Game 1. However I expect Brind’Amour and Carolina to correct some things.
Carolina was 2nd on the Power Play and 1st on the Penalty Kill during the regular season. With the Rangers 3rd in both categories. Games will get tighter I envision as well, as the Rangers are throwing the body around and being very physical against their opponents. Shesterkin has been solid. Rangers have scored 4 goals in four of their five playoff games. Carolina will highlight this. I look for Game 2 to be a lower scoring game. Unless Carolina comes out with more intensity and the Rangers are unable to match it.
Rangers +110
I’m not understanding Rangers as home underdogs and will continue to take them at the price when it’s offered to me.
Dallas -125