Written by Graeme on Wednesday, May 8th, 2024
Follow @BetNHL
An absolute banger day of NHL playoffs yesterday!
Two absolute thrillers, both requiring OT. The Rangers/Hurricanes game needed two overtime periods, and the Rangers got the big goal to take a 2-0 lead to Carolina.
The Dallas Stars managed to go up 3-0 in the 1st period….and then lose. Absolutely incredible. 7 shots in two periods. Great job there Dallas.
We’ve got Game 2 in the Panthers vs Bruins series today, and also the Canucks vs Oilers series starting off. Canucks have home ice advantage but are dogs.
Let’s look at them both:
Panthers vs Bruins Game 2 Betting Tips:
Scott: Swayman was again amazing for the Bruins making 38 saves when they won game one 5-1. He was able to keep the crowd quiet with his play which was a huge factor in winning on the road.
Tkachuk scored the first goal of the game but it was all Bruins after that. They need to get and keep the lead as the Bruins just won’t give up.
As we saw in the series against the Leafs Swayman is playing so well that its going to be tough to beat him when he’s in the zone. The Panthers need to watch tape and see how they are going to do that and try and tie the series up before it moves to Boston for the next 2 games.
I want to take the Panthers here but I’m skipping after the game the Bruins, and more importantly Swayman, just had.
No Bet
Graeme: Yeah I really don’t know what to think about that first game. I thought the Panthers played fine, but some defensive mistakes and Swayman were big difference makers.
But that was a killer loss and I’m not sure how the Panthers will be at adapting.
Truthfully, I think it’s a pure value play on Boston here. I mean really it’s hard to argue beyond 50/50 for this one. If the Panthers adapt then so be it, but I’m fine with taking the value on the Bruins until the Panthers show they actually CAN figure the Bruins out. I mean it’s not like they haven’t played Boston before or have any tape to look at etc. They knew what they were going to get going in.
Bruins incl OT
Ontario: 2.50 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Canada: 2.60 Odds at GT Bets.
USA: +160 Odds at GT Bets.
Everyone Else: 2.60 Odds at GT Bets.
(Odds correct as of 2024/05/08 8:21:14 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Canuck vs Oilers Series Betting Tips:
Scott: The Canucks got through the first round beating the Preds in 6 games and only had Demko for game 1.
They didn’t score a pile of goals against the Preds but their first round numbers were Miller with 6 points, Hughes and Boeser both with 5, Joshua with 4 and Lindholm, Zadorov and Pettersson all with 3. They have some guys who will need to step up in this series as the Oilers score a lot.
The Oilers beat the Kings in 5 games.
They were led by the usual stars with McDavid having 12 points, Draisaitl 10, Bouchard 9, Hyman 8 and Nugent-Hopkins 6. Kane also chipped in and Perry and Henrique haven’t yet got going. Skinner was solid in round 1 and they’ll need more of that in this series.
If Demko is back and healthy he will go a long way to any success the Canucks will have but its the Oilers and as we can see from their first round they had players averaging over 2 points per game so offense will win them this series.
If Skinner can continue to play well and McDavid and company keep putting up numbers I see the Oilers winning this series.
Oilers to win series has low value so I’ll go with Oilers -1.5
Ontario: 1.64 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Canada: 1.77 Odds at Bovada
USA: -130 Odds at Bovada
Everyone Else: 1.64 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2024/05/08 8:21:14 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Graeme: Alrighty – metric time.
The Canucks handled the Oilers all season long results wise. Oilers had much better offensive metrics but the Canucks were just that much more clinical in front of net. They also relied on high danger goals a LOT. That first game was 4, and that second game all 4 goals were HDGs. Mental.
But in the playoffs? Well here’s where things are interesting. Canucks have the 2nd worst HDGF while the Oilers have the BEST HDGA. So that’s a concern there based on that short term data. Oilers were mid in HDCA while Canucks were brutal in HDCF as well.
So was that just the matchups? Well the Kings are 20th for HDCF and 16th for HDGF in regular season. The Preds have pretty solid HD defensive stats.
Man oh man this is an interesting one I gotta say.
Forgetting high danger for a second – let’s look at all the other metrics in the playoffs. Canucks come in rocking a better CF%. FF% is basically the same. Oilers have a ridiculous SF/60 and their xGF is much better while the xGA for both is the same. Canucks even without Demko, relied on some solid goaltending.
At the end of the day, I think I’m able to write off the playoff HD stats as an anomaly. The odds on the Canucks are delightful, and their HDGF in the tail end of the regular season was still solid. Oilers should be favourites for sure, but I think there’s value in that Canucks line.
Canucks to win the series
Ontario: 3.20 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Canada: 3.25 Odds at Intertops.
USA: +225 Odds at Intertops.
Everyone Else: 3.25 Odds at Intertops.
(Odds correct as of 2024/05/08 8:21:14 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Today’s games:
To WIN puckline: Oilers
To WIN moneyline: Bruins
Vancouver is missing Demko and could be missing Pettersson who sports radio is saying is ill and the official status is “questionable” as of this morning. So what do we have as a matchup;
1) Zadorov/Lindholm/Hughes vs
2) McDavid/Hyman/Draisaitl/Bouchard and much more.
The Canuck top resources are arguably on defense, not offense. This game could be a wipeout. Oilers have scoring depth, extreme speed, and this season they went on a 16+ game winning streak when applying their solid defense system, with full participation of their forwards, keeping almost all teams to 2 or fewer goals. They’ve since proven they can win low-scoring games. I can’t see how the Canucks can cope, and they ARE a good team. Canucks goalie Silovs (likely as of this AM) is good. Oilers edge. The puckline is attractive. If the Oilers get a lead, the Canucks just won’t be able to create a recovery such as we just saw with Colorado vs Dallas.
Boston is a strong system team with great organization on the ice, fast response and is highly opportunistic, with a lot of obvious talent and determination. The Panthers seem to be more of a run-and-gun gang of mavericks. Boston takes the series, probably in 4, maybe 5.
The Final will likely be the Rangers vs either the Oilers or Avs. Rangers are the eastern elite team.