Written by Graeme on Tuesday, May 9th, 2023
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I’m glad I was wary of the Oilers goaltending and defense last night, as they got absolutely blasted.
Series like that are just so hard to call, as we now have three generally lopsided games.
A really disappointing performance from the Oilers though, who just weren’t up for that at all. Feel bad for all the people who spend hundreds of dollars to attend that.
We’ve got two games tonight.
Devils vs Hurricanes Game 4 Betting Tips:
Scott: The Devils weren’t going to waste an opportunity at home and went to work.
They beat the Canes 8-4 and were the better team for the whole 60 minutes. Jack Hughes had a big game scoring twice and adding 2 assists.
The Canes scored 3 shorthanded goals which is an NHL record but it wasn’t enough. They had to pull Andersen and Koskinen wasn’t much better.
With them still at home and after a big win I can see the Devils having another big game. But the Canes need to get back to what helped them win the first 2 games. Game 1 hit 6, game 2 was 7 and game 3 was 12.
Over 5.5 incl OT
Graeme: The Devils bounced back in Game 3, much like the Rangers series. Unlike that one however, it was an incredible offensive performance that got the job done in a banger of a match.
I think it’s impossible to back a side in this game. Looking at the metrics, I’d say yeah 100% there is value on the Canes at 2.30 odds. But after the Devils/Rangers series and how that played out, then you add on this game 3, if you’re backing the Canes you have a lot more balls than me.
That’s one where I’d bet it and really hate myself the next day if it lost, knowing that the signs were there.
But I’m happy to take Over 5.5 Goals. Both teams are scoring, Devils have an xG of 3.01 and Hurricanes 3.82. Both have SCGF/60 that meet the criteria. Both are creating high danger chances and converting them at a high rate.
The fact that it’s only 5.5 is a bit of a surprise and makes me think the bookies know something we don’t. I saw it was 5.5 yesterday and expected it to jump to 6 today.
But yeah I see no reason not to take it. Metrics all point to it and if the bookies have pulled the wool over our eyes then more power to them.
Ontario: 1.95 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Canada: 2.01 Odds at BetOnline.
USA: +101 Odds at BetOnline.
Everyone Else: 2.01 Odds at BetOnline.
(Odds correct as of 2023/05/09 8:33:19 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Kraken vs Stars Game 4 Betting Tips:
Scott: This game was tied 0-0 after the 1st period. But the Kraken opened up the 2nd scoring 4 goals in 8:22.
Seven different Seattle players scored and 12 different players picked up a point which just shows you the depth they have. They have had 16 different players score this postseason.
The Stars split the first 2 games and they got pounded in the 3rd in the 1st round against the Wild too.
As good as the Kraken have played, the Stars are a good team who finished in 2nd in the Central.
Stars win incl overtime
Ontario: 1.74 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Canada: 1.74 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
USA: -131 Odds at BetOnline.
Everyone Else: 1.74 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2023/05/09 8:33:19 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Graeme: Sports betting is so funny sometimes. Kraken BLAST the Stars 7-2 in the last game. They beat them in Dallas. Yet the Stars are heavy favourites at about 1.74 odds.
I really don’t know what to think about this game. I guess the Kraken have been able to score against the Stars enough, so makes the over appealing. I just get concerned thinking back to the regular season where the Kraken would just completely not show up for games.
The Stars goaltending has been letting them down as the Kraken over this series have an xGF/60 of 2.35 but GF/60 of 4.37.
The over is tempting based on the offensive metrics so far. The only real question is if Oettinger is able to step up. Which is 100% possible especially after he was broken last game.
But even if he does – this Kraken offense still seem like they can get past him.
So yeah – hopefully not one of those dud Kraken games. Stars over 3.5 was a bit appealing with that a concern, but I’ll go with Over 5.5 goals and hope that even if the Stars bounce back, Kraken can keep up their overproduction in the goals department.
Ontario: 1.86 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Canada: 1.88 Odds at BetOnline.
USA: -113 Odds at BetOnline.
Everyone Else: 1.88 Odds at BetOnline.
(Odds correct as of 2023/05/09 8:33:19 AM EST but are subject to change.)
I agree with the over in the Devils – Canes game.
I don’t agree with the Stars though. I think the Kraken are up for a reason. While both teams were better away than at home in the regular season, the Kraken know they’re up and can lower their shoulders a bit for this home game. And historically Stars isn’t a great away team, even if they turned out to be better away in the regular season.
I think the Kraken will take this. And the odds are just too good to skip for a home team that just smashed the last matchup 7-2.
Kraken incl OT
Devils – Canes over 5.5
I can see Seattle winning too. They have consistent high speed that gets past defenses and shuts down opponent offensive plays, and more than adequate goaltending. Odds makers have Dallas as a slight favorite, yet give Seattle’s reverse puckline of +1.5 poor odds, so bookies must expect Seattle to do well here.
Full games OVER 5.5: both games
I can only consider Over/Under options with these four current series. The radical swings of scores and win/lose results is all over the place, yet the score total, the style of play remains generally constant in three series. That has affected Prop bets too, dammit. I’ll take a slightly risky UNDER 6.0 tomorrow with the Leafs, along with Florida to win, as the Leafs are done. I’ve heard “why” commentary on that from ex-NHLers, and I’ll comment on that tomorrow.
The Oilers looked unfocused yesterday. It looked like a combination of lack of rest from taking a poorly-chosen night flight north perhaps, perhaps not yet believing or fully valuing how they’re in the second round, and perhaps victims of the famous Vegas Hangover. There’s no room for over-confidence against Vegas. Peak performance only from here on. If the Oilers partied excessively in Vegas (lots of teams are tempted to during the regular season, a better’s major factor to watch for when the Visitor plays their following game!) and had a night flight, then one day off would not be enough to shake that off that dissipated state. Oilers had extended time in Vegas before Game 2. Ouch! When an entire team looks out of phase, a common reason can’t be too insane to suspect.
Bedard to Chicago! This summer will see radical changes for a lot of teams across the league.
Will Go for kraken -1 and -2.
NJD -1
Kombi NJD -1 and kraken -2 (wooping odds 15,6) 🥳
Eberle 2 points @6,25